Thursday, March 22, 2012

Angling for the Right Seed?

The Flyers are very likely to be in the playoffs, but should they try to target a specific seed to get a favorable matchup?  Such angling is usually not pursued, because there is so much out of your control.  You usually just want to enter the playoffs playing good, winning hockey and the chips will fall where they may.  That said, here's the matchups the Flyers could find themselves in:

-#1 seed, likely opponent-Caps/Sabres
For this to happen, the Flyers have to catch both the Pens and the Rangers.  Catching the Rangers seemed far fetched not too long ago, but it's pretty close now.  The Pens are also on a tear, which will presumably continue with Crosby and Letang healthy.
Washington on the other hand, still has the talents of Semin, Ovechkin and Backstrom, but it seems like forever ago they started the season so well.  They've spent a lot of time on the outside of the playoff seeds.  You can never feel too comfortable that a team with talent like that won't put together 4 good games against you, but more likely, they are a team rotting at the core that is at the bottom of the playoff standings for a reason.
Buffalo, the Flyers first round opponent last year, has had a strange season.  Last year, in my opinion the Flyers were clearly a better team, but atrocious goaltending on the Flyers part made it a 7 game series.  The Sabres were supposed to be an improved team, throwing around lots of money in the offseason, but their first half was pretty terrible.  Now Miller is finding his groove and the team is making a push.  Still not a terrifying opponent though.

-#4/5 seed, likely opponent-Rangers/Pens
The most likely position in which the Flyers will find themselves, playing whichever of the Pens or Rangers fails to win the division.  Of course the Rangers have had the Flyers number this season, though the games have all been close.  It's hard to feel very confident from a Flyers perspective though in this matchup, particularly with the Rangers defensive commitment often being kryptonite to the Flyers style of play.
The Pens themselves look formidable right now, but of course if the Flyers play them in this matchup, that means the Pens faltered enough down the stretch such that they did not pass the Rangers.  That series would be a war, but the Pens would be the favorite.

-#6 seed, likely opponent-Panthers
 For this to happen, the Flyers would have to drop 3 points in the standings to the Devils, on whom the Flyers have a game in hand.  I don't like the idea of stumbling into the playoffs like that, personally.
The matchup, however, is a pretty good one to the Flyers.  The Flyers lost to the Panthers the other night, and the Panthers can be tough to crack, but I can't see them running with the Flyers in a long series.  Despite all their offseason spending, this team was dead last in the east last season.


The bottom line here, is barring a big surge to best both the Pens and Rangers, or a mini-collapse to fall behind the Devils, the Flyers are locked into the 4/5 matchup. Matching up against either the Pens or the Rangers are both bad matchups for the Flyers, but what can you do?  Maybe, just maybe, if the Flyers are going down to the final weekend very close to the Devils, they could rest up some banged up players (Timonen, Kubina) and fall backwards into the a favorable matchup with the Panthers without tanking.

No comments:

Post a Comment