Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
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