The Flyers Godfather

"Make them an offer they can't refuse."

As more details come about the Weber offer sheet, I think it's a fairly entertaining story.

For starters, Weber visited the Flyers (and the Rangers) recently, and the Flyers entered serious trade negotiations with Nashville.  Reportedly, Weber decided Philadelphia was where he wanted to be, and he and his agent made that clear to Nashville.

The entertaining part to me is Ed Snider's involvement.  For one, a team can't offer a contract like the Flyers did to Weber without ownership approval or encouragement.  In the case of Snider, it's probably encouragement.  Two, supposedly Snider himself gave Weber private tours of the Flyers facilities, including ordering everyone to immediately vacate the premises for his private tour and private meal in a back room.  This will remind Flyers fans of Snider's courtship of Bryzgalov, using Snider's private jet.

In trade talks, Nashville wanted Couturier AND Schenn, plus other parts.  Obviously, the Flyers balked.  Not only did the Flyers balk at that demand, they threw it back in Nashville's face with a huge offer sheet.  The prevailing wisdom is that an offer sheet would be practically a favor to Nashville because then they could simply match and thus avoid the complications of negotiating with Weber themselves, but perhaps the Flyers made the financial terms of the offer so onerous ($27m due in one calendar year) that Nashville ownership won't approve of matching.

There may yet still be a trade between Nashville and the Flyers regarding Weber, but the Flyers didn't like the way talks were going, and in turn made it a more dangerous game for Nashville.

It's hard to say what happens next, but I like Bill Meltzer's take on the situation here, which forcefully advocates a trade based on Voracek, Meszaros and first round picks as I speculated the other day.

On to Doan
After the Godfather successfully wined and dined Weber, it was widely reported that Doan visited.  I actually wouldn't make too much of this, because Doan is basically on a tour of NHL team, including NY and Detroit, among others.  I'm not sure if the Weber signing going through increases or decreases the likelihood of Doan signing in Philly, but Doan is clearly in no hurry to sign anywhere yet.

Flyers Offer Weber HUMONGOUS Deal

It is days like today that I treasure being a Flyers fan.  There's never a boring day, and nothing is out of the question.  For my money no team is more fun to follow despite no cup for 35 years, but that's probably a question for another day/blog.

As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract.  This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million.  Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers.  If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year.  If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.

With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out.  Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.

Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger.  I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the  Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky.  I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment.  Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.

By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt.  If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years.  The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber.  It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.

Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about.  All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m.  What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone.  Can Nashville swallow that?  Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year.  Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m.  Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.

To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers.  Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks.  This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago.  Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him.  Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.

Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player.  What do the Flyers have to offer?  I would start with Voracek and Meszaros.  Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen.  Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward.  Also, he is still not signed anyway.

Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more.  First round picks are a good sweetener here.  The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included.  The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.

Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier.  I really hate to think about this.  For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros.  His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone.  Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year.  Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in.  This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.

I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly.  Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away.  If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off.  The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.

IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:

It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN.  They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season.  At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.

A Disappointing Week?

I've been patiently waiting for things to play out, and now most of the big questions have been answered.  So...

Parise and Suter
-The Flyers reportedly made massive bids to both Parise and Suter, possibly the biggest offer of any team in terms of dollars and years (over 10 years and over $100m).  Honestly, to my relief, neither bid was accepted.  All-in-all, their decision to sign jointly in Minnesota is nearly ideal for the Flyers.

I really like Parise's game, and by all reports Suter is a quality top pair defensemen.  Still, I don't think it made sense for the Flyers to be saddled with these deals, which would be overpayments unless these guys are MVP or Norris candidates.  The Flyers getting either of these guys was always a longshot, but my more realistic concern was Parise signing with the Pens (though I have to say, I'm not sure it was even wise for the Penguins to commit $25m to three forwards for the next 10 years in Malkin, Crosby and Parise).  Now the Flyers can breathe a sigh of relief, with both players going to the Western conference rather than strengthening a rival.  The real losers of these shenanigans were Detroit and Nashville, who fell short in pursuing Suter and the obvious Suter-Plan-B, Matt Carle.

Carle Signs in TB
-Speaking of Carle, he got a long contract from TB.  Flyers fans' initial reaction to this was that the Flyers blew it, by futilely chasing Suter and letting Carle get away.  I'm not sure I quite see it that way.

For one, it's not entirely tough luck the Flyers had not already signed him.  The fact is, they prioritized signing Grossmann and Coburn over signing Carle.  Two, the Flyers took a very strange stance, publicly touting that they believed they could sign Carle for below market value.

For months, I have written here repeatedly that if he got to free agency, someone was going to offer Carle $5m+ a year.  The signing of Wideman last week removed all doubt, and evidently caused Carle to reconsider any verbal agreement with the Flyers.  My bottom line is this; you can't fight the market with UFAs.  Once Carle decided to at least listen to free agent offers, the Flyers had no shot.  He was going to wait for Suter to sign, then get a big offer.  The Flyers pursuit of Suter made no difference, as by then Carle was in UFA mode and Carle was waiting for Suter before he would sign with anyone (including the Flyers).  At that point, the Flyers were not going to come close to TB's offer of $5.5m x 6 years.

Realistically, the Flyers had two options.  Sign Carle to ~$5m contract a few months ago and let either Grossmann or Coburn be exposed to UFA offers, or do what they did with Carle.   They chose the latter, and I'm not sure I would've done it differently.

Jagr Goes to Dallas
-Another effect of the exploding UFA market this season was Jagr getting a $4.5m deal from Dallas.  Again, there is no way the Flyers would offer that much.  I would've liked to see the Flyers resign him for something at or below last year's $3.3m contract, but again, you can't fight the market.

As it was, Jagr left and there was a lovefest on twitter between Jagr and his now ex-teammates.

Jaromir Jagr ‏@68Jagr

-Just to everybody knows:Max Talbot is the most underrated and underpaid player in NHL.Holmgren did a great job signing him last season.

-To@28CGiroux:Keep working and soon you will be the best player in NHL like I said.To@Hartsy19:work hard and you will score 40.

-Special thanks to my linemates Scotty and G.

-Thank you the Flyers for the opportunity you gave me.Thanks to all fans and teammates for great support! I had so much fun! Will miss you.

Matt Read ‏@MReader24

Was a pleasure play some puck with the legend himself @68Jagr. Best of luck in Dallas Mr. Positive #beauty #alwayssmiling

Oh well, I enjoyed having him around last year.

Gervais and Fedotenko

-Without digging to deeply to analyze these signings, they seem like good ideas to me.  Fedotenko's a very experienced vet who can play any forward position and have the full trust of the coach.  The cap hit is low, and there's basically no risk in a 1-year contract.

Regarding Gervais, another low risk move that could blossom nicely.  He's not going to play many minutes, but with a right-handed shot and his strength being puck movement, he could slot in nicely.  If he does have a bounceback season, the Flyers have him under contract next year for super-cheap as well.  Also, as an aside, Gervais and Talbot are apparently best buds, and Talbot will be Gervais's best man in his upcoming wedding.

The Picture
So merely assuming Voracek and Bourdon are signed, and the Flyers can use all of Pronger's LTIR allotment, this is the roster today:

That doesn't look too bad, but definitely not as strong as last year.  Up front, JVR and Jagr are out, replaced by 3rd liner Fedotenko.  In the back, Carle and his 20+ minutes are gone, replaced by Schenn and Gervais.  Again, the Flyers are going to be relying on young players to improve and maintain a high level of play.  Fortunately, the Flyers still have some flexibility here with ~$8m in cap space to use.

I like the Rick Tocchet plan, which may already be in effect; "If I were Flyers , I would have my attention on Doan and a couple of second tier d-man ...stay with the young core and grab Weber next year".

Doan and Weber would be big for this team, though whether either goes anywhere is up in the air.  Nashville will desperately want to keep Weber, but in one year he can do whatever he wants.  Doan wants to stay, provided ownership in Phoenix is stabilized.

Personally, I make aggressive offers to Doan for 2 or 3 years.  Hopefully higher dollars can substitute for that 4th year he wants, and that other teams will give him.

Regarding Weber, best case scenario for the Flyers is that he plays one more year in Nashville, then goes UFA.  The Flyers don't have much left to trade--I wouldn't trade Cooter under any circumstances, and I might've traded Schenn for someone like Weber, but that was before JVR and Jagr were gone.  The forwards corps now can't afford to lose Schenn.

The wisest thing for Nashville to do is offer Weber a huge contract, and if he doesn't take it, trade him.  They can't afford to lose Weber next year like they lost Suter this year.  Unfortunately, this makes it pretty hard on the Flyers to acquire him, in my opinion.