As for the matter at hand, the Flyers have offered Shea Weber a 14 year, ~$110m contract. This is the biggest contract in NHL history for a defensemen, and computes to a cap hit of ~$7.8 million. Nashville will now have 7 days to match, or alternatively work out a trade with the Flyers. If Nashville matches, all is said and done and Weber is guaranteed to be in Nashville next year. If Nashville declines, Nashville will receive 4 first round picks from the Flyers.
With those hard facts out of the way, the real intrigue is how this plays out. Upon some reflection, I believe this was ultimately the strongest play the Flyers could make to land Weber.
Weber has been something of a white whale for Flyers fans this offseason---a dominating defensemen who can comfortably fill the shoes of Chris Pronger. I have previously speculated that the Flyers were not in the best position to land Weber, because Nashville will pull out all the stops to sign their franchise player, and the Flyers have already traded away two key trading chips in JVR and Bobrovsky. I have been among those believing "don't offer-sheet Weber because Nashville will match anything," but this was the best option available to the Flyers at the moment. Because of the Flyers lack of other assets, they would not fare well in open trade bidding process, in my opinion.
By signing Weber to this offer sheet, the Flyers have shut out all other teams from the Weber hunt. If Nashville matches, they can't trade him for one year, and he will likely be in Nashville for several years. The Flyers now have exclusivity in trade dialogues with Nashville regarding Weber. It also has to happen within the next 7 days, so the Flyers have accelerated the timeline.
Of course the simplest course of action is merely for Nashville to match, and then there's nothing to talk about. All things being equal, I'm sure Nashville was prepared to offer Weber a long-term deal with a cap hit of ~$8m. What gives Flyers fans hope here is their deal reportedly calls for $26m in the first year alone. Can Nashville swallow that? Mind you that Nashville's entire franchise is only worth $163m, and they only have $40m committed to the entire roster next year. Nashville is required to spend $14m on SOMEBODY this offseason to get to the cap floor at $54m, but the way this deal is structured, their actual, IRL payroll this season would be at least $72m. Whether or not they can handle $26m to Weber next season (and $56m over the next 3 years total) is basically a business decision.
To keep the conversation going, let's assume they can't, and earnestly talk trade with the Flyers. Per the RFA offer sheet rules, the trade value is pegged at 4 first round picks. This should be acceptable to the Flyers, considering they traded essentially 3 first round picks and a 3rd for Pronger a few years ago. Now Pronger is one of the best defensemen of his generation, but he was about to turn 35, and his days as a Norris candidate were clearly behind him. Weber is 26, entering his prime, and has been the Norris runner-up the last 2 seasons.
Nashville, however, will probably want something other than picks to show for the sudden departure of their franchise player. What do the Flyers have to offer? I would start with Voracek and Meszaros. Mesz can play 20+ minutes a night for Nashville, and is likely the defensemen the Flyers would soonest trade with their sudden logjam of defensemen. Voracek I like as a complimentary top 6 winger, though he's probably a 60-70 point player going forward. Also, he is still not signed anyway.
Even assuming Nashville will take those two, there needs to be more. First round picks are a good sweetener here. The Flyers recent first round selection, Scott Laughton, could also be included. The Flyers turned some heads picking this kid higher than most expected him to go, but he left a lot of observers impressed at the Flyers recently-concluded prospect camp.
Lastly, there is the possibility of trading Schenn and Couturier. I really hate to think about this. For me, Cooter is the best prospect the Flyers have had since Lindros. His game is so complete, it's amazing, and it would really pain me to trade him for anyone. Schenn is also a very promising player, who could break out big time this year. Previously I would've said 'maybe' to trading Schenn for (and only for) Weber, but now Jagr and JVR are gone, and Luke Schenn is in. This makes Schenn less likely to be traded away now.
I will stop here, rather than ramble on endlessly. Overall, I think this maneuver gave the Flyers the best chance at landing Weber, but it's far from guaranteed Nashville lets him get away. If I had to guess I feel like Nashville finds a way to keep him, but all bets are off. The takeaway, however, is that by getting this offer sheet signed, the Flyers have promoted themselves from longshots on landing Weber, to having a very good shot at him as well as blocking potential rivals (mainly the Rangers) from acquiring him.
IF the Flyers were to trade away Voracek, Mesz, and picks/prospects, this is what Flyers fans are looking at:
It's nice getting that franchise defensemen, but for all the goals the Flyers scored last year, that forward group is THIN. They really have no highly skilled winger to speak of, as Jagr, JVR and Voracek were ALL of their skill wingers last season. At least there is still enough cap space to add a decent forward or two.
No comments:
Post a Comment