Save the Date

Apparently June 23rd is a big day for the Flyers.  In 2011, Carter and Richards were shipped out on June 23rd.  In 2012, JVR was traded on June 23rd.  This year, the Flyers conducted some other noteworthy business.

Hartnell for Umberger
In a move basically no one saw coming, the Flyers traded Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick.  Everyone knew Umberger wanted out from Columbus, but Hartnell leaving Philly is a surprise.  The purposes of the trade are not obvious, but there are a few things to take away.

One, this appears to be Flyers re-tailoring their rosters for Hextall-Berube hockey.  Most would say Hartnell is the better player, but Hartnell is a clumsy player.  Stylistically, Umberger is a better skater and much better in possession.  While not a young speedster, he is closer to Berube's "play faster-think faster" mantra.

Two, the Flyers only get minor, delayed cap relief.  Hextall said he just let it be known he was looking for cap relief, and this trade just kind of came up.  Truthfully, Umberger's and Hartnell's cap hits are nearly identical ($4.750m v $4.6m), although Umberger's contract has two fewer years left on it.  Hextall is looking ahead to two seasons from now when Voracek will be a UFA, and Couturier and Schenn will be RFAs.  Umberger will still have one more left on his contract at that point, however.

The last point is that Umberger's has been declining.  His first three years in Columbus were reliably productive, but his last three seasons have been poor.  He played 74 games last season, albeit through a few tough injuries that may have slowed him down.  He and Hartnell are the same age, and it will be interested to see where each of this guys are physically in 2 years.

Umberger will be a versatile forward for the Flyers who may help a bit in puck possession, but he does not improve the team in any significant way.  Hartnell's departure also opens a hole on the top PP unit.

Schenn signed
On the same day, the Flyers also did something far more predictable.  Completing Hextall's self described #1 offseason priority, he signed Brayden Schenn.

It's a relatively short, cheap, "bridge contract" than many players his age receive.  It provides the team with an affordable young talent, while leaving the player the opportunity to earn a significant raise with his next contract (ask PK Subban about that one).

With Hartnell gone, Schenn might see time on left wing of the top line.  Either way, it's time for Schenn to show everyone what's he got.  At one time he projected as a prospective number 1 NHL center, but now there is some question if he will even be a good #2.  I can't say I see visual evidence that he is on the cusp of a breakout, but the development of a young player isn't linear either.

He plays a different style than Couturier, but the players will always be compared as young centers and potential future pillars of the team, acquired at the same day (June 23!).  I think it's safe to say Schenn's stock in the organization has dropped below Couturier at this time, but now he's got two years raise his stock back up.

Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Lecavalier

With the draft upcoming, teams are making their offseason trade plans.  For the Flyers, the most likely piece to trade is Lecavalier.  After only one year here, many in Flyerdom are sour on him.

He arrived here last year as a 33-year old free agent to play under Peter Laviolette, amid some hope of reviving the second line.  He did get 20 goals last year, so it's not a disaster, but time on the 4th line in the playoffs leads the presumption he has no future on the Hextall/Berube Flyers.

I thought he showed some chemistry with Schenn early in the season, but his season was derailed by back ailments and he never found his place under Berube's system.  He also seems ill-suited to play wing at this point of his career, and Hextall's youth focus presumably means the second line center spot is reserved for Schenn.

So what are the trade options?  They are probably more limited than most think.  He is owed $16.5m over the next 4 years, at a cap hit of $4.5m/season.  He is seen as a player on the decline around the league, and a team trading for him probably will require the Flyers to eat some of his salary in any trade.  Lecavalier also must approve of any trade.

It has been easy for everyone to speculate that Nashville is a fit for Lecavalier.  Laviolette is the new coach there, and they are definitely lacking offensive centermen.  I haven't actually heard anything from the Nashville end, and my worry is that Nashville will only give up something like a mid-round pick and still expect the Flyers to pick up salary.  Do the Flyers want to be rid of Lecavalier so much that they'll eat salary and accept only a token return?

The other day it was reported Lecavalier would allow a trade to Florida, but again I haven't heard of actual interest from Florida.  I think it's safe to presume a Lecavalier trade will not return Florida's #1 pick in the draft, which they are shopping...

Lastly, the Flyers could give Lecavalier another year here.  Let him play second line center and see if he can fit in.  The bonus of this plan is, Lecavalier's contract pays him reduced amounts the remaining years following one more season.  $4.5, $3, and $3 million to be exact.  At that point, the Flyers could trade him to a small market team that is not up against the cap, and not have to eat any salary or cap hit from Lecavalier (said team wouldn't care about the $4.5m cap hit, and will appreciate his lower actual salary due on a smaller real budget).

All in all my takeaway is, shop him, but you don't NEED to dump him this offseason.  If the Flyers really wanted to add salary this offseason they'd need to create cap space, but I don't think Hextall is in the big acquisition mode, nor should he be.

Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Kesler

This week it has been reported that Ryan Kesler still wants out of Vancouver, and that the Flyers are one of the few teams on his list of acceptable teams.  Unfortunately for him, Kesler should not be on the Flyers' list of trade candidates.

One reason is that the Flyers perpetually have too many centers.  This team already has Giroux as the #1, Lecavalier and Schenn as possible #2s, Couturier as #3, and Scott Laughton coming up.  That group could occupy those spots for a long time.  Kesler can play wing, but why shoehorn him into the lineup that way?

A second reason is that Kesler has been trending down.  He's still a solid 2 way center, but his days of being a 70 point player appear behind him, and he's been in the 40 point range the last 2 full seasons.  He plays a physically demanding style, and as someone who'll turn 30 this summer, production will likely sag and injuries will likely mount in the coming seasons.

Lastly, Vancouver will probably ask for Brayden Schenn and other sweeteners like a 1st round pick and/or a prospect in return.  Personally, I wouldn't trade Schenn straight up for Kesler at this point.  Their production next year will likely be comparable, although Kesler would be more reliable defensively.  Schenn is only 22 however, and his production will likely rise in the coming seasons.  Additionally, although not yet signed, Schenn should be significantly cheaper than Kesler's cap hit of $5 million the next two seasons.

A quick little chart of production:

Kesler had a big breakout season at 24, but I would rather go with Schenn and hope he develops similarly, rather than pay Kesler for what he's done in the past and hope he finds it again in his 30s.

If Hextall is at all serious about his pledge to focus on holding onto youth long term, acquiring Kesler this offseason makes little sense for the Flyers.  Fortunately, I see no indication that they actually are interested anyway.