Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Kesler

This week it has been reported that Ryan Kesler still wants out of Vancouver, and that the Flyers are one of the few teams on his list of acceptable teams.  Unfortunately for him, Kesler should not be on the Flyers' list of trade candidates.

One reason is that the Flyers perpetually have too many centers.  This team already has Giroux as the #1, Lecavalier and Schenn as possible #2s, Couturier as #3, and Scott Laughton coming up.  That group could occupy those spots for a long time.  Kesler can play wing, but why shoehorn him into the lineup that way?

A second reason is that Kesler has been trending down.  He's still a solid 2 way center, but his days of being a 70 point player appear behind him, and he's been in the 40 point range the last 2 full seasons.  He plays a physically demanding style, and as someone who'll turn 30 this summer, production will likely sag and injuries will likely mount in the coming seasons.

Lastly, Vancouver will probably ask for Brayden Schenn and other sweeteners like a 1st round pick and/or a prospect in return.  Personally, I wouldn't trade Schenn straight up for Kesler at this point.  Their production next year will likely be comparable, although Kesler would be more reliable defensively.  Schenn is only 22 however, and his production will likely rise in the coming seasons.  Additionally, although not yet signed, Schenn should be significantly cheaper than Kesler's cap hit of $5 million the next two seasons.

A quick little chart of production:

Kesler had a big breakout season at 24, but I would rather go with Schenn and hope he develops similarly, rather than pay Kesler for what he's done in the past and hope he finds it again in his 30s.

If Hextall is at all serious about his pledge to focus on holding onto youth long term, acquiring Kesler this offseason makes little sense for the Flyers.  Fortunately, I see no indication that they actually are interested anyway.