October Post Roundup

Here are my posts for the month of October at Broadstreetbuzz.com .

• Editorials
• Medvedev Starting Strong
• MacDonald Waived, but Defense Still Not Settled
• B. Schenn to Blues Rumor Re-Surfaces 
• Hakstol Evolution Begins 
• Teams to Call about MacDonald and Schenn 
• Phantoms
• Weekend Update, 10/16
• Meet the Phantoms 
• Weekend Recap, 10/23
• Game Stat Analysis
• L v Lightning, 3-2
• L v Panthers, 7-1
• W v Panther, 1-0
• [W v Hawks, 3-0]
• L v Stars, 2-1 
• W v Bruins, 5-4 
• W v Rangers, 3-2 
• L v Sabres, 3-2
• [L v Devils, 4-1]
• [L v Sabres, 3-1]

Belated Season Predictions

Yes, yes, the season has started.  I suppose that makes these picks null and void to some, but I'm not sure how much the first two games of the season will tell you anyway.  Mostly I just want to have these written down somewhere so I can look back at them at the end of the season and see how horribly wrong I was.

Metro Division
1. NY Rangers
2. Washington
3. Pittsburgh
4. Columbus
5. NY Islanders
6. Philadelphia
7. Carolina
8. New Jersey

Atlantic Division 
1. Tampa Bay
2. Detroit
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Florida
6. Boston
7. Buffalo
8. Toronto

Central Division
1. Minnesota
2. St. Louis
3. Chicago
4. Winnipeg
5. Nashville
6. Dallas
7. Colorado

Pacific Division
1. Anaheim
2. Calgary
3. San Jose
4. Los Angeles
5. Vancouver
6. Edmonton
7.  Arizona

The hard picks were Metro 3-5, and really the entire central division.  I feel like 2-5 in the central is a crapshoot.

Monthly Post Recap

In the month of September, I wrote the following pieces over at Broad Street Buzz about the Flyers.

• Steve Mason Can't Get No Respect
• AHL the Best Place for Ghost...For Now
• Flyers Bounce-Back Players and What to Expect
• Figuring Out the Schenn Brothers Future in Philadelphia
• 3 Gagne Playoff Highlights to Remembers as he Retires
• The Top 20 Flyers Nicknames and Slogans

Also, I'm still doing a Flyers flipboard magazine of news links.  It's here.

Post Roundup

Here is a round-up of my posts over at Broad Street Buzz the last several weeks.

• Sam Gagner the Flyers' Next Rehab Project 
• The Flyers' All-Time 10 Best Goal Scorers
• The Best Flyers Team that Didn't Win the Cup
• Big Hitters in the Lineup Now that Rinaldo is gone
• No Sign of Imminent Brayden Schenn Offensive Breakout
• Brainstorming 3v3 Combos for This Year
• 2015-16 Season Prediction

I'm also experimenting with a Flipboard Flyers magazine, posting content to it.  Check it out here.

Broad Street Buzz

I will now be writing over at Broad Street Buzz.

I'll keep this blog up over here, maybe still do some posts here, but most of my writing will now be over there.

So go read my first post there!

http://broadstreetbuzz.com/2015/07/20/philadelphia-flyers-gagner-flyers-next-rehabilitation-project/

Gagner vs. Voracek

With the news that the Flyers will be keeping Sam Gagner on the roster, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and feel out some reasonable expectations for him this season.  The easiest place to begin is to compare him to Jake Voracek.

Gagner and Voracek are the same age, and were taken #6 and #7 respectively in the 2007 NHL draft. For quite a while they were regarded about equally.  Take a look at their points/game to this point in their NHL careers.

Gagner immediately was promoted to the NHL and had a pretty good season (his second highest points/minute in career, in fact).  After that, the players tracked very closely for the next 4 years.

Things really took off for Voracek in his second full season with the Flyers, in the strike shortened year.  Still, many would probably say they were still closely comparable, as evidenced by their contracts.  In his breakout season, Voracek was in the first year of a 4 year deal that pays him $4.25m/year (this upcoming season is the last season of this contract).  After that same season, the Oilers signed Gagner to a deal that paid him $4.8m/year.  Maybe the Oilers were foolish, and Voracek would've cashed in on the big year a bit, but it still shows their general respect level around the league were similar.

Things really went off the rails for Gagner in 2013-2014, as he registered a career worst 37 points, and had the second worst plus/minus on the team.  This resulted in the Oilers casting him off, ultimately landing arriving in Arizona via Tampa Bay.  His stats didn't improve much last season in the desert, although to be fair he was the top scoring forward on a team with no talent up front.

There aren't a lot of indicators that Gagner is due for a bounce-back season this year with the Flyers.  He does however fill a need for the Flyers, as in my opinion their top off-season need was skill on the wings.  Gagner and the Flyers must hope that a permanent move to the wing and the change of scenery to Philadelphia will reinvigorate his career.  The Flyers are probably hoping for 45-50 points from him, and anything above that will be a bonus. 

Maybe the Flyers can make it three in a row on reclamation projects; Mason, Del Zotto, then Gagner.

Del Zotto Contract

 Speaking of Del Zotto, it was announced today that the Flyers re-signed Michael Del Zotto.  He was due for an arbitration hearing next week.

The details of the deal is that it's a 2 year deal, at a cap hit of $3.875/year.  I don't love the deal, but I don't hate it either.  I'm not completely sold on Del Zotto's all around game, but the guy deserves credit.  He came in on a put-up-or-shut-up one year deal, and scored 10 goals and 32 points in 64 games.  I was expecting his deal to be between $3.5 and 4 million, although I had lingering fears of a higher cap hit or a long term.  With a 2-year deal, the Flyers aren't married to him long term, which is needed flexibility with all the young defensemen the Flyers have coming up.

The Flyers now have around $300k and change of cap space, if you include Manning on the squad.  They would get back $625k if they send him down to the AHL.

A Productive Weekend

I have to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased the way this draft weekend turned out.  Predicting the draft is usually a fool's errand, as teams' true preferences are never known and one trade can have large domino effects.  All indications, however, is that the Flyers got their man.

Ivan Provorov

Last week, I tweeted an article about how the Flyers really wanted Provorov.  It also looked like the Flyers were interested in trading up to assure they secured Provorov.  After a few edgy moments where the Devils could've once again been the thorn in the Flyers side, the Devils took Zacha with the #6 pick, leaving Provorov available for the Flyers at #7.

With Provorov now in the fold, the Flyers have a second defensemen in the system who projects as a top pair NHLer.  The Flyers have had Morin, Ghost and Hagg in the system (along with lesser prospects like Manning, Alt, etc...), but none of those guys really project as defensive corps cornerstones.  The ceiling is much higher for Sanheim and Provorov, and Provorov is probably now the best prospect in the system.

The scouting reports on Provorov say he could be a little taller (he's only 6'1"), and that he doesn't have great top end speed.  Aside from that, he can pretty do much the rest.  He's a good skater who has a knack for controlling the game.  He is a threat to score on the PP, will kill penalties, and can answer the bell physically when appropriate.  He says his best asset is his hockey sense, likening himself to Lidstrom.  I've seen him compared to Mark Giordano as well.  Here's his best goal, and some scouting reports (1, 2, 3).

I'm going to presume he won't be on the Flyers this coming season until I hear something else, so until he arrives I need to get used to saying pro-VOR-ov, not PROV-or-ov.

Travis Konecny

One also has to think the Flyers will be pretty pleased with their second first round selection, Travis Konecny.  They liked him enough to trade up a few spots seeing that he was still available late in the first round.

Before the season, he was often seen as a top-10 pick, but his draft status fell a bit after a poor first half of the junior season playing through a concussion, and a very deep draft class.  As it was, he entered the draft ranked #14 by central scouting.

I suppose it could be said he slipped a little bit in this draft, but in the Flyers favor.  His size works against him (he's 5'9" or 5'10"), and TSN says his skating needs to improve.  That is odd, because other scouting reports praise his skating, and an OHL coaches poll rated him the best skater in the eastern conference of the OHL.

Either way, he's a skilled and spirited forward.  He's generally a team leader wherever he plays (captain of OHL team and Canada's U-18 squard, McGuire award for player who 'best exemplifies the commitment to excellence through strength of character, competitiveness and athleticism'), and won MVP of the OHL top prospects game.  He finished the season strong (.87/ppg in 1st half of season, 1.4/ppg in 2nd half), including 10 points in 5 playoff games.  Check out this goal, and this assist. 

Rest of Draft

I'd be talking out of my ass to say anything qualitative about the Flyers remaining 8 picks.  All I can really say is that the Flyers used them to stock the cupboard in areas of need, forward and goal.

Grossmann Trade

As soon as the draft was over, the Flyers traded Nick Grossmann in a salary cap move.  Trading Grossmann should not be a surprise.  They also sent Chris Pronger's contract over, in return for Sam Gagner.  On the surface, the Flyers send over $8.421m in cap dollars, and take back $3.2m.  It's not quite that simple though, because the Flyers will retain $500k of Grossman's cap hit, and the Pronger's cap hit was always subject to long term injured reserve exceptions.  If you simply assumed the Flyers could claim an exception for the full amount of Pronger's contract (a dubious assumption), this trade actually HURTS the Flyers cap situation (Grossmann $3.5 < Grossmann $0.5 + Gagner $3.2).  As it is, this trade will save the Flyers the LTIR gymnastics, which aren't always so simple.

Now the Flyers have about $64m and change committed to next season's roster (out of $71.4m salary ceiling), although they still need a backup goalie, a contract for Del Zotto, and another forward or two.  It is also not a sure thing Gagner sticks around.

Gagner is a player of some talent, as he was drafted sixth in 2007 (one pick before Jake Voracek).  His career looked to be building, as he recorded an 8 point game in 2012, and scored 38 points in 48 games in 2012-2013.  The last two seasons have been a disappointment.  He is now nominally on his 4th team in 15 months, and it will be 5 if the Flyers send him on.  He is on the verge of becoming tainted goods in the NHL.

The Flyers could buy him out, or trade him.  The Coyotes GM has recently stated that he doesn't think Gagner has what it takes to be an NHL center, so his NHL career may hinge on his ability to transition to the wing.  That should be okay with the Flyers, as they have centers to spare.  Gagner was not on he waiver wire today in preparation for a buyout, so we'll have to wait and see how this story ends.


Other Moves Around the League

-The Flames picked up Dougie Hamilton for barely more picks than they would have received anyway had he simply walked.  It looks like a steal to me, and a tough one to figure out for Boston, particularly after seeing how they used those picks.

-The Kings are in the process of buying out Richards at a costly cap hit that will last for 10 years.  LA GM Lombardi has called his decision to give Richards a second chance, instead of buying him out with no cap penalty last summer, the worst decision of his career.  Anybody still have doubts about that Richards trade a few years ago?

-The Rangers traded Cam Talbot for 2nd, 3rd, and 7th picks.  Earlier, it had been reported that the Rangers had turned down offers of a 1st round pick, or 2 2nd round picks.  Sounds like the Rangers mishandled that one a bit.
 

Flyers Add Mobile Russian Dman

For the second time this week, I’ve had to do some serious googling to figure out who the Flyers just added.   While the Flyers were previously rumored to be interested in a young Russian defensemen (Nikita Zaitsev), they went ahead and signed a veteran to 1 year, $3 million deal.

Yevgeni Medvedev is 32 year old, 6’3” defensemen.  Eliteprospects.com says: "[he's] a large, yet very mobile and smooth skating defensemen...he sees the ice well and has good hockey sense...he can pass really well but also possesses a good shot...could play a more physical and aggressive game given his size."  Maybe the Flyers could use him a shootout too!

A large, yet very mobile and smooth skating defenseman. Medvedev sees the ice well and has good hockey sense. He can pass really well, but also possesses a hard shot.

Could play a more physical and aggressive game given his size. - See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=16728#sthash.doOY8WLJ.dpuf

He's been a regular at AK Bars Kazan the last 8 years.  He’s won two championships there, and has been a KHL all-star selection the last 3 years.  He’s also been a regular on the Russian national team, winning medals on their last few World Championship teams, as well as playing in Sochi.  On the Sochi squad, Medvedev was their #3 defensemen in terms of ice time, behind Andrei Markov and just barely behind Slava Voynov, but ahead of NHL regulars Fedor Tyutin and Nikita Nikitin.

It appears that he is a well-regarded, mobile defensemen.  The big question for him will be adjusting to the smaller NHL rink and the more physical game, as he spent his whole career in Russia.  If he can do that, he will likely be a top-4 defensemen next season.

This leaves the Flyers with more defensemen than they need.  Presuming they re-sign Del Zotto, they’ll have 9 defensemen.
-Del Zotto
-Streit
-MacDonald
-Schenn
-Schultz
-Grossmann
-Manning
-Medvedev
-Gudas

This list doesn’t even include all their young defensemen such as Gostisbehere, Morin, Hagg or Sanheim.  For the moment, I’d have to presume that Ghost, Morin and Hagg will all be in the AHL next season as they all have something to gain by more time there, and the Flyers have no room for them.  Sanheim had a fantastic season last year, so I’m not sure he has much to gain from another year in junior (and by rule he can’t play in the AHL), but Hextall doesn’t seem inclined to rush any 19-year-olds.

So what to do with all these defensemen?  The Flyers will almost certainly trade at least one.  That should be either Schenn or Grossmann.  The Flyers have no need for two big, slow, stay at home defensemen.  I’m just not sure which one.  Schenn is younger but less reliable, and both players will be free agents after this season.  Schenn is also one of the only right hand shots on defense.

If the Flyers send Manning back down and ship out Schenn/Grossmann, they're left with a 7-deep corps with which they can enter the season.  If however, they still are interested in Zaitsev, or want Manning to stick, they’ll be back up to an unwieldy 8.  In such case, there is no obvious answer as to what the right move would be to ship someone else out.

The New Face of the Flyers

Having had a little time for it to sink, as well as hear a few more impressions from others, Hakstol appears to be a very serious man.  Yesterday "Puck Daddy" Wyshynski commented on his podcast that when he interviewed Hakstol a few years ago, it was almost like talking to a military man.  A serious bearing, and direct answers.

All sources agree he is not a verbose guy.  He's not even a yeller.  But there is no doubt that he is intense.  How does that intensity get across?  It's the Hakstol Death Stare, that one former player said "will penetrate the back of your helmet."

Get used to the new face of the Flyers.

Or in animated gif form;

Flyers Have a Coach

The Flyers went completely off the board this morning with their new coach, hiring Dave Hakstol from North Dakota.  There had been some reports that the Flyers would be a top contender for Babcock, with local beat writers implying the Flyers scarcely had a Plan B.  Now it looks like Plan A was never Babcock, and the press simply didn't have a bead on it.

When Paul Holmgren replaced Laviolette with Berube in 2013, the Flyers took grief from some quarters about being too insular.  While Hextall is a member of that insider's club, he continues to lead the organization down a new path.  This certainly qualifies as an outside-the-box move.

I certainly will not pretend to have any special insight into Hakstol as a coach.  Here are some facts and comments others have made about him this morning:

-He played college hockey at UND and played a few years of minor league hockey.

-After retiring from playing, he became an assistant with his minor league team, and then an assistant at UND in 2000.

-He was promoted to head coach at UND in 2004.  As head coach there, he had 289-141-43 record.  He was named conference coach of the year in 2009 and 2015.  UND made it to the Frozen Four seven times, although never won a championship.

-He is the NHL coach hired directly from a college job since Herb Brooks in 1987, and only the third guy ever to get his first NHL job as a head coach from only college experience (Bob Johnson 1982, Ned Harkness 1970).  The Flyers did hire Mike Keenan when he was serving as head coach of the University of Toronto in 1984, although he had already been around the block in different jobs.

Ryan Bright ‏@philabright  2 hours ago

Per @GFHerald, Hakstol is "stoic, straight-forward personality." Known for "intense presence." He also doesn't sleep, apparently.

Ryan Bright ‏@philabright  2 hours ago

Quote on Hakstol from @GFHerald: “That stare,” one former player said, “will penetrate the back of your helmet.”

-Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie  2 hours ago

Hakstol is extremely well regarded. Coached Ron Hextall's son Brett at NoDak. NHL people I've talked to say Hakstol's assistants will be key

-Dan Hammer, UND play-by-play guy, appeared on CSN this morning and said the big word regarding Hakstol is "intensity." He also said that his "system" is defensively-oriented and "very much into molding players into two-way players [citing Toews]."

-He has seen several NHL guys pass through UND, such as TJ Oshie, Jonathan Toews, and Zach Parise.  Current Flyers Chris VandeVelde also played for him.



Given that he is a college coach, there is a natural presumption that he will be good with young players.  I think this something of a statement hire, and Hextall is willing to be patient and go back square one in many respects.  Hakstol will be given the chance to stamp his identity on the team, as this hire is not an attempt to get back into the playoffs as fast as possible.

Based on his comments at the press conference today, it seems Hextall likes that he pushes players, has personal familiarity with him from his son playing there, and that ultimately the lack of NHL experience simply wasn't a dealbreaker.  Personally, I have no complaints.  It will be intriguing to watch things going forward the next few seasons with Hakstol molding the team while a bunch of young players coming into the lineup.

I Suck at Picking the West

It may just be the sting of picking the Jets, and then watching them get swept, but I really suck at picking the West.  As with last year, I got all 4 Eastern Conference series correct, but only shot 50% in the West again.

I had hoped my increased statistical focus would lessen the gap from East to West, as I see the teams in the East play a whole lot more.  It didn't really work, even though the Kings didn't make the playoffs this year for me to incorrectly pick them to lose, as I did in 2013 and 2014.  Here are my pick results for the last three years.

 

As a reminder, here's how my mathematical rankings laid out this year's teams. 

 

Overall, they worked pretty well.  If you combine the rankings with a little bit of subjective analysis, I feel very good that I correctly identified the real contenders; Chicago, Tampa Bay, New York and Minnesota.

Where things didn't work out so well for me was at the other end of the spectrum.  I went with the numbers picking against Calgary and Anaheim, and got burned.

For the Calgary series, I think the numbers were wrong in identifying Vancouver as a much stronger team than Calgary.  Vancouver has had lousy showings in their recent playoff history, so I should've been a little skeptical of that.  Oh well.

Regarding Anaheim, I may be willing to chalk them up as a statistical anomaly.  I still don't feel entirely bad about picking Winnipeg.  You look at Anaheim you see a top heavy offense overly relying on Perry and Getzlaf. You see an inexperienced goal tandem. You see a head coach with a terrible playoff record. You see a team that was 19th in shot differential in close situations (only Ottawa and Calgary was worse among playoff teams). You see a team that was only +10 in goal differential, worst among all playoff teams.

All they really had going for them was a preposterous record of 33-1-7 in 1 goal games (nhl.com has stats on this category going back to 1998, and this is by far the best record any team has ever had).  Was that an anomaly, or does Anaheim have a truly unique trait to win close games.  I feel okay with presuming it to be the former.

I'll tweak my mathematical rankings going forward, but it was a pretty good tool.  From it, I picked the Hawks over the Rangers in the finals, although the Rangers have some serious work to do with the Caps right now to get that far!

Playoff Picks, 2015

Finally, the suffering is over for the Flyers.  While the Flyers do have many questions to answer, particularly floating around Craig Berube, I'll look to those another day.  All that really matters for the Flyers is 6.5%; their chances of getting the top pick and Connor McDavid.  The Flyers will otherwise pick seventh, although they could get bumped down to 8th if a team below them wins the lottery (there is a cumulative 23% chance of that happening).

So, putting that dreariness aside, on to the games that matter.  As my post history below shows, I was doing a little statistics nerdery to create a playoff proficiency mathematical ranking.  Here are the results based on final regular season statistics.

There are two main takeaways for me from there.  One, Chicago has a bit of breathing room, although there is an equally clear top-5.  Second, no team earns a particularly high ranking.  Every previous season saw at least one team break 8 points on this scale.  With Patrick Kane's health still an issue in Chicago, and the general parity otherwise, things could be pretty wide open and hinge on particular matchups.  Either way, I will use those rankings as "seeds" below.

Eastern Conference

 

The Rangers will be a Cup favorite for many, and deservedly so.  They reached the finals last year, have the #1 goal difference in the NHL, and have a fast and complete lineup.  Not too long ago, the Penguins looked formidable.  They are strong across the board in pertinent categories (#2 seed in rankings!), but the wins haven't come recently.  They squeaked into the playoffs on a 1-4-1 skid, with the only win coming against the lowly Sabres.  Add to that a season ending injury to Kris Letang, and things look bleak.  Last year Rangers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Penguins in the second round.  That won't be necessary this year.  Rangers in 6.

 

The Canadiens pose the question, how much can we ask from our goalie?  Carey Price seems a lock for the Vezina, but he can't do it all.  Fortunately for them, Ottawa is not a formidable team.  The Sens have been on fire since mid-February with the best stats in the East.  The Hamburglar has created a phenomenon, and the Sens are now playing with house money in the playoffs.  Still, I'm not convinced that they will keep this going in the playoffs.  Pacioretty's injury isn't helping Montreal, but they have enough to beat an Ottawa team that is over its head.  Montreal in 7.

 

My rankings were not kind to either of these teams.  The Islanders are terrible in the key indicators of PK and save percentage, and the Caps rely on the PP, which almost never translates into playoff success.  I like the Islanders young group of forwards, but I'm really not sold on their defense and goaltending.  On the other hand, the Caps scoring is incredibly top-heavy relying on Ovechkin and Backstrom, and Barry Trotz has a terrible playoff record from his time in Nashville.  Someone has to win though.  Maybe's Washington will be the exception and win a playoff series on their PP, feasting on the horrible Islanders kill.  Washington in 7.

 

By my rankings, this is the most lopsided matchup of the first round. It's quite a contrast, with TB relying on young forwards like Johnson, Kucherov and Palat, while Detroit throws out guys in their mid-30s like Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Kronwall.  TB's defense still might not be fully healthy, but if things click, TB could make a deep run this year.  TB in 5.

 

Minnesota's season has been ridiculous.  Without going into too much detail, it's hard to get over Dubnyk's stat line of 27-9-2, .936 sv% and 1.78 GAA.  Additionally, Minnesota's goal difference since the all-star break is a phenomenal +38.  For St. Louis, they've been perennial playoff disappointments, as I know first hand from picking them many times and getting burned.  Blues fans are hopeful that the exploits of young guns Tarasenko and Schwartz given them an offensive swerve they've never had and will break that streak.  There may be some truth to that, but this match up does them no favors in changing their luck.  I like the Wild's chances of going far.  Wild in 7.

 

Honestly, you look at Anaheim's stats, and you wonder how they got anywhere near the top seed.  How a team gets 50 wins with a mere +10 goal differential boggles the mind.  They don't seem to excel at anything, thus the #14 rank.  Winnipeg isn't going to bowl over anyone, but they're #1 in Corsi Close in the NHL, which is really impressive.  I really hate their goaltending situation, but I'm going to go with Winnipeg over Anaheim's smoke and mirrors win/loss record.  Winnipeg in 7.

 

Calgary is another plucky team that has won a lot of fans this year.  They beat out the Kings for a spot, and everyone loves Johnny Hockey and Monahan.  None of that, however, changes the fact that they're not very good otherwise, and their Corsi is shockingly awful.  For the Canucks, it's been a amazingly quick turnaround, but they look pretty solid.  Vancouver in 5.

Another mismatch by my rankings, Chicago doesn't look as irresistible as past cup winning editions, but they were good enough to be #1 by my formula.  Patrick Kane is still uncertain, and their offense has really struggled since the all-star game (26th in goals scored).  I still like them much better than Nashville though, as their stats are better across the board.  Nashville has an ugly -8 goal difference since the ASG themselves.  Chicago in 6.

Playoff Success Math - Part 3

So in my last two posts I have been writing about my amateur analysis of what regular season performance statistics actually correlate to playoff success.  I got some fairly decent results, I think.

The only extra review I did since my last post was to run one more statistic; 5v5 "Close" Corsi percentage.  "Close" is defined as when the game is within 1 goal in the 1st or 2nd period, or tied in the 3rd period.  I thought that could be a good one, because teams play differently depending on the score: they'll sag back on defense with the lead, and attack more when trailing (particularly in the 3rd period).  I thought controlling for those factors would produce a better result.

Turns out, it did.  Here's one last visual chart of correlation factors for each regular season statistic.

 

Using 5v5 Corsi "Close" gives a slight boost to the correlation factor over plain old 5v5 Corsi or Fenwick.

So what to do next?

At this point, I identified 4 robust statistics; total goal difference, Corsi close, PK, and save percentage as leading indicators.  Then, I used Excel to a run a 4-variable regression using the last 5 years of the NHL data that produced the chart above.  Giving that I have not done this stuff since Econometrics my senior year of college, I'd probably bungle an in-depth explanation of everything that means.  For these purposes, it suffices to say that this process spits out a formula for a linear trend line into which you can plug raw data, then get a predicted number of playoff wins.  

Armed with this equation, I then went back over the last 5 years and did just that.

In many ways, these results turned out better than I expected.  With the sole exception of the 2010 Flyers, 9 out of 10 Stanley Cup Finalists were top-5 ranked team according to my formula.  In 3 out of 5 years, the team ranked 1st or 2nd in these rankings actually won the cup.  While top-5 teams occasionally do bomb out in the first round, in most cases the loss is to another top ranked team or there is a mitigating factor; 2014 St. Louis entered the postseason in horrible slump, 2012 Pittsburgh had a mental collapse against the hated rival Flyers, and 2011 Pittsburgh was playing without injured Malkin and Crosby...   These are pretty solid results!

On the flip side, being in the bottom-3 spells nearly certain doom.  13 out of 15 bottom-3 teams lost in the first round.  The 2010 Montreal squad was the only team that did anything of note from such a low position.

Okay, so modeling the past isn't the hard the part.  What does the formula say for the future?  I ran it again using NHL statistics from this season, as of today.  Here are the results:

So there it is.  There's Chicago and then a cluster of comparable teams.  Are the two eventual Stanley Cup finalists found in that top-5, as has been the case the last 4 consecutive seasons?  At the other end, some may be surprised to see the Islanders at second-to-bottom, given all the fans they've won over with their play this year.  I can tell you they're down there because their penalty kill and team save percentage are clearly the worst of playoff teams.  I will update these numbers at the end of the season to get final ratings, at which time I'll have to ask myself how much confidence I want to put into my magic formula!

Nevertheless, I'm pretty pleased with the end result of my little investigation.

Playoff Success Correlation - Redux

So following up on my previous blog post regarding what regular season statistics are most likely to translate into post season wins, I decided to re-run the test with some adjustments.

To measure success, I used raw postseason wins again.  For the moment, I do not have a better method.

To measure regular season performance, instead of looking at where each team finished in each category (1st to 30th), I used the direct statistic.  In addition, because average PP, PK and save percentage varies league wide from season to season, for those three statistics, I calculated the teams statistic against the league average from that particular season.

Here are the results:

Conclusions
 -In general, making these adjustments did not change the qualitative results.  Instead, in nearly every category in resulted in a small increase in the magnitude of correlation.

-Corsi and Fenwick correlation showed the most significant increase in correlation, to the point that it implies a different qualitative conclusion.  Whereas Corsi and Fenwick were no better in predicting playoff success than simple 5v5 goal differential when looking at it via league standing, when you use the more specific Corsi or Fenwick percentage (as I did in the second analysis), it does become a significantly better predictor.  Interesting.  This throws out much of my rationalization in my last post.


-When I was re-digging into the data, the Penguins of 2008 and 2009 were an anomaly.  Those teams reached the finals in both of those seasons (and winning the cup in 2009), despite very poor performance in Corsi, PK, and save percentage.  This drags down the 7 year correlation in those statistics, and in a possibly misleading fashion.

-Defaulting to the 5 year statistical window (the green bars), PK quality remains the strongest predictor by a wide margin.  After that, total goal differential, Corsi, Fenwick, and total shot differential are all about equal in correlation strength.  Save percentage lags behind, with a decent correlation.  5v5 goal difference is weaker still, power play is worthless, and I didn't even bother looking at shooting percentage in my second analysis.