9-8

It was a remarkable game.  17 goals, 3 goalie changes, each team with a 5 goal run.  Highlights:



As remarkable as it was though, it defies most comment.  The Flyers deserve heavy criticism for the way they rapidly turned a 1-0 lead into a 5-1 hole, but pretty much from that point it was pandemonium out there.  Fundamentals and discipline went out the window and there's no much reason to dwell on what happened in the 2nd and 3rd period.

The bigger story is Bryzgalov's post game comments:



The conventional wisdom is that you never want to hear any player, let alone the goalie who teammates must trust, to say he has no confidence in himself.  The "correct" answer he was supposed to give is that he was embarrassed by his play, but will work hard to figure things and be better the next game.


Apparently that's not Bryzgalov's way.  It's been a really bad week for him, and this game is the new low.  I wouldn't get caught up on what he says; he's pretty aloof and will deal with it in his own way.  It WILL be a problem if his play doesn't start to improve though.  He can say what he want as long as his play improves, but if his play continues to decline people will jump on these comments and say his attitude is hurting him.

The good news that can be taken away from last night's game is that they had two effective lines.  Hartnell has Giroux and Jagr creating more 5-on-5 pressure, and JVR on the wing made Briere look much more dangerous.

The bad news is that for the second consecutive game the Flyers took a 1-0 lead, then capitulated. 

With all the new faces on the team an adjustment period should've been expected.  The preseason and first few games went so well, however, that expectations for this team rapidly changed.  5-4-1 in October for a team with so much turnover is not such a bad thing, but the team needs to get straightened out quick before 5-4 becomes 5-10, which would be a very bad thing.

Despair!

It was going to happen sooner or later.  An ugly loss that will allow some Flyers fans to do what they do best; carry on about how the team is a wreck.

In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers.  The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead.  Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in.  Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.

The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score.  The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick.  The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.


Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season.  The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.

-Unnecessary penalties.  High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.

-Hartnell on the outs?  Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night.  With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line.  I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.

-Briere's line not doing anything.  There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level.  No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.


Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov.  5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up.  His rebound control has also been very good.

-Schenn's -3 debut.  Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one.  Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.

-Jagr still scoreless.  Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.

The "Prime" of High-Flying Scorers

I was reading an article the other day about the apparent decline of Alex Ovechkin, and if we've already seen the best of him.  I think the answer to that question is yes, if you consider the "best" being his days a high octane scorer.  And since this is the kind of pointless question blogs truly exist for...

Most fans and commentators peg the "prime" years of a guy's career in hockey being the late 20s, and maybe circa 30 for goalies.  I don't think that is accurate if you're talking about explosive offense.  Just talking a random sample of some big stars, with the ages of career highs in goals and points;
-Gretzky, 20, 24
-Lemeiux, 23, 23
-Roenick, 21, 22
-Modano, 29, 26
-Selanne, 22, 22
-Hull, 26, 26
-Bure, 21, 21
-Jagr, 23, 23
-Yzerman, 23, 23
-Bondra, 27, 25
-Lindros, 22, 22
-LeClair, 26, 26
-Tkachuk, 24, 23
-Recchi, 24, 24
-Sakic, 31, 26
-Iginla, 24, 31
-Ovechkin, 22, 22?

It's an imperfect and sloppy analysis, as many players still put up similar numbers in successive years, but the pattern is clear; the most explosive offensive years comes from players in their early 20s.  They may well be better overall players later in their career, but they basically never reach back and top their previous production.

This is something to keep in mind when projecting the futures of guys like Ovechkin and Stamkos.  Ovechkin, the force of nature who scored 65 goals, is probably not coming back, but it won't prevent him from being a top scorer for years to come.

One Week Down

I was just speaking with Captain Obvious about how this year's Flyers team is very different from last year.  After speaking Captain Slightly-Less-Obvious, it's clear that the Flyers this year will be playing a very different game than any Flyers team in memory.  Now that the Flyers have played a few games, some judgments may be made.

This year's Flyers team will not be able to impose their will on other teams.  Long gone are imposing centers like Lindros and Primeau, but even last year's depth at center with Carter, Richards, Briere and Giroux looks much less formidable this year.  This team will be opportunistic on offense, and likely rely on their power play a fair amount.

The team spends most of its money on experienced defensemen and goaltending, creating a team that will be a tough nut to crack (hopefully).  More noteworthy is Bryzgalov's style of play; minimal movement, and a big shot blocker.  I'm not sure the Flyers have ever had a "percentage" goalie like Bryzgalov before.  Personally, I love it.  Last year the Flyers were the only team in the NHL not to earn a shutout, and you knew that wasn't going to happen this year.  I just thought it might take longer than 2 games to occur.

Another difference with this Flyers team is their size, which is often lost in the shuffle of this offseason.  Nearly every player they added is big; Jagr 6'3", Couturier 6'4", Voracek 6'2", and Simmonds 6'2".  Throw in these mobile, big players and I think the Flyers roster mix fits Laviolette's style of play much better.

Other Notes:
-Couturier could be staying with the big club for the season.  Getting all those PK minutes is highly unusual for an 18 year old player.  He plays a very smart game and doesn't look out of place at all, and the team is currently structured with him as the clear #1 PK center without a clear replacement if he is sent back to juniors.  The Flyers need to weigh this against his long term development, and being a PK guy for a few years isn't always the best way for a guy to blossom into a future top line player (which is what the Flyers should expect from him).


-With Betts coming back from waivers due to failing a medical, the Flyers have had 2 problems.  Betts' return eats cap space, and the Flyers were forced to make a minor trade to get under the 50 contract limit yesterday.  Betts' injury status convolutes the Flyers ability to waive him, though waiving him removes him from the salary cap.  With Shelley's suspension, Betts and Schenn's injury/AHL status, Walker's injury, and Couturier's uncertain prospect of sticking around, the Flyers roster situation is messy, and I'm not sure how they will choose to resolve it all.

-On the subject of Betts, it is curious to me that they are casting him aside so casually while laying such a big penalty killing burden on 2 rookies (Read and Couturier).  I'm not sure of the wisdom on this.

-Bryzgalov is making friends in Philly.  Timonen: "I knew very little about Bryz, but he's been promising and a really good guy.  Not a typical Russian...or like Zherdev."  Okay, so I made up the Zherdev part.  Also, apparently Bryzgalov delighted reporters with a Scarface impression the other day, but I don't know of any video of it.  *sadness*

-I can't be too hard on a guy who has 2 goals in three games, but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've seen from Voracek.  He has a few good shifts here and there, but most of his shifts are not helpful to his teammates.  That whole line isn't doing much.

A Breath of Fresh Air

The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different.  The team hierarchy is  clear cut.  After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr.  All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.

I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went.  First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads.  Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations.  I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.

Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise.  I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative.  Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.

The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons.  For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL.  While disappointing, this is not the end of the world.  Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them.  Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too.  Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going.  Fingers crossed there.

Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans.  I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower.  Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc.  I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr).  A few key injuries could be devastating.

The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate.  Maybe I'm getting lazy....

Simmonds and Things

It's been a very tough week for Wayne Simmonds.  First the now infamous banana incident, and then he finds himself on the other end of a bad situation with Avery/homophobe incident.  You couldn't blame Simmonds for simply wanting to move on from the banana incident, though it's a little harder to ask everyone to simply forget a similar incident in which you are the perpetrator.

There is no excusing Simmonds alleged (likely) use of homophobic slurs.  It's not right and no provocation justifies it.  The whole thing is just unfortunate for a lot of reasons.

Truthfully the situation fits Avery's modus operandi perfectly.  Agitate, physically and verbally, then when a response finally comes, cry to the referees instead of finishing what you started.  This pattern was on full display in the game a few days, as microphones clearly caught Avery repeatedly yelling "he was going ****ing kill Giroux," and cheapshotting Simmonds with a punch in the face at the bottom of the pile when Simmonds is defenseless.  Later Simmonds challenges Avery to a toe-to-toe fight, and Avery turtles drawing a penalty.  As I said, his typical bag of tricks.

Where things change here is that, where Avery usually agitates then cries to the referees for a penalty, here he agitates then rats out a player to the media.  This is against all acknowledged NHL players codes, that what happens on the ice stays on the ice.

Avery is no angel.  He has previously been accused of using racial slurs against black players, was suspended by the league for commenting to the media that other players were having his sloppy seconds by dating his ex-girlfriend, and has at various other times been accused of crossing the line with his trash talk, delving into player's personal lives and wives.  Additionally, it has been reported that unnamed officials say they hear language like Simmonds is accused of 10 times a game.  Clearly, all of this generally vile behavior underlines that trash talk that is not fit for public consumption is an everyday part of life in the NHL.

Again, this doesn't excuse Simmonds behavior, but the prevailing culture cannot be ignored.  It is not practical or even fair to come crashing down on Simmonds at this time.  This is an uncomfortable subject that will come up again around the league, but for now the NHL is content to let it blow over and merely put everyone on notice.

General Preseason Notes
-The consensus is that Matt Read has won himself a spot of the roster, quite likely in the top 9 forwards.  He's shown a ton of jump, and is playing smart in all situations.  This would be great news for the Flyers if he can stick as a reliable, productive player.

-Schenn has underwhelmed a bit this preseason, and is now hurt.  The widespread expectation was that he would make the team, but the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if he starts the season down in the AHL.  He is exempt from waivers so the Flyers can send him up and down as they please.  Also, the Flyers cap situation is very tight, and his $3m+ contract is not a trivial number.

-Couturier has shown very well, but it was always going to be an uphill climb for him to make the squad at 18.  I'd be very surprised if he sticks past the 10 game mark, when players his age must be sent back to juniors or else the Flyers will lose a year to his free agency status.

-The 7th defensemen spot battle still seems pretty wide open.  Matt Walker has the most NHL bona fides, but also a much bigger contract than Gustafsson and Bartulis, so he will have to be that much better than them to make the team.

-Good stuff from Bobrovsky thus far.  I previously said the Flyers would've been crazy to give the keys to the team this season, which I still definitely believe, but a year as a backup could be great for him.  Especially if he plays like this for an extended period.

Shanahan's Reign Begins

I was not a fan of how the NHL has conducted its disciplinary system the last few seasons.  It was arbitrary, mysterious, and lived up to the fan's mocking moniker "wheel of justice."  Perhaps the biggest indictment of the system was that it was wholly unpredictable, and lack of transparency and clarity are one of the worst criticisms you can level at an institutional system of justice.

When Colin Campbell left the office as head disciplinarian, things could only get better.  In steps Brendan Shanahan, a respected and well-liked former player who has been actively involved in rule tweaks the last few seasons.

Shanahan got things off to a good start, and even regaled those of us who lack the patience and interest to read a press release with a video;

Wow.  Transparent, clear, tough.  What a difference.

Jody Shelley has also found himself in the crosshairs;

I don't think Shelley's hit was as bad as LeBlond's, so Shelley's multiple suspensions last year and his "repeat offender" status obviously counts for a lot.

Given this positive start, the question still remained about the trickier case of illegal checks to the head.  Those incidents are much touchier, and there is still some resistance in the league to harsh penalties for such plays.  Also, late last season the GMs passed rule changes to toughen up boarding enforcement.  This included the language quoted in the videos about how the onus is the on the player applying the check to ensure the target is not in a defenseless position.  This language is not illegal check to the head rule.

It didn't take long to get a preview of how Shanahan will handle headshots;

Two games isn't very much, but that is explained by the lack of injury, intent, and previous suspension history of Boyes.  What IS noteworthy about this video is that Shanahan states that the onus was on the player delivering the check to minimize contact to the head, even though the onus language is not written into the headshot rule, as it is for boarding.

I think these rulings forebode very well for NHL disciplinary action this season.  Administratively, they are clear and transparent.  Substantively, they are tough penalties that place the onus on the checking player not to prey on the other player.  While the target still bears some responsibility for his position, it's a softening on the old school "keep your head up" attitude, which I think is the most important piece in reducing head injuries in the long run.