Streit Agrees to Deal

Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m.  Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.

Is this a good deal?

Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle.  Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen.  Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively.  The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league.  He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.

Streit has a very similar scouting report.  Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP.  Also a bit weak defensively.  The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists.  He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.

All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option.  He is a little bigger and 9 years younger.  Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books.  Otherwise, very similar players.

Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him.  Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.

So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.

Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:

That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year).  I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot.  I'll leave that question for another post though.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Penguins Game 6 Review

Flyers nation can now exhale.

Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series.  Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch.  That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.

I was oddly confident this morning.  Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them.  They were going to win this game.  This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up.  Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.

I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers.  Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.

Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively.  Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much.  As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves.  Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).

-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ.  His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength.  That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game.  Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.

-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series.  The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals.  Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.

-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game.  Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.

Simmonds and Things

It's been a very tough week for Wayne Simmonds.  First the now infamous banana incident, and then he finds himself on the other end of a bad situation with Avery/homophobe incident.  You couldn't blame Simmonds for simply wanting to move on from the banana incident, though it's a little harder to ask everyone to simply forget a similar incident in which you are the perpetrator.

There is no excusing Simmonds alleged (likely) use of homophobic slurs.  It's not right and no provocation justifies it.  The whole thing is just unfortunate for a lot of reasons.

Truthfully the situation fits Avery's modus operandi perfectly.  Agitate, physically and verbally, then when a response finally comes, cry to the referees instead of finishing what you started.  This pattern was on full display in the game a few days, as microphones clearly caught Avery repeatedly yelling "he was going ****ing kill Giroux," and cheapshotting Simmonds with a punch in the face at the bottom of the pile when Simmonds is defenseless.  Later Simmonds challenges Avery to a toe-to-toe fight, and Avery turtles drawing a penalty.  As I said, his typical bag of tricks.

Where things change here is that, where Avery usually agitates then cries to the referees for a penalty, here he agitates then rats out a player to the media.  This is against all acknowledged NHL players codes, that what happens on the ice stays on the ice.

Avery is no angel.  He has previously been accused of using racial slurs against black players, was suspended by the league for commenting to the media that other players were having his sloppy seconds by dating his ex-girlfriend, and has at various other times been accused of crossing the line with his trash talk, delving into player's personal lives and wives.  Additionally, it has been reported that unnamed officials say they hear language like Simmonds is accused of 10 times a game.  Clearly, all of this generally vile behavior underlines that trash talk that is not fit for public consumption is an everyday part of life in the NHL.

Again, this doesn't excuse Simmonds behavior, but the prevailing culture cannot be ignored.  It is not practical or even fair to come crashing down on Simmonds at this time.  This is an uncomfortable subject that will come up again around the league, but for now the NHL is content to let it blow over and merely put everyone on notice.

General Preseason Notes
-The consensus is that Matt Read has won himself a spot of the roster, quite likely in the top 9 forwards.  He's shown a ton of jump, and is playing smart in all situations.  This would be great news for the Flyers if he can stick as a reliable, productive player.

-Schenn has underwhelmed a bit this preseason, and is now hurt.  The widespread expectation was that he would make the team, but the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if he starts the season down in the AHL.  He is exempt from waivers so the Flyers can send him up and down as they please.  Also, the Flyers cap situation is very tight, and his $3m+ contract is not a trivial number.

-Couturier has shown very well, but it was always going to be an uphill climb for him to make the squad at 18.  I'd be very surprised if he sticks past the 10 game mark, when players his age must be sent back to juniors or else the Flyers will lose a year to his free agency status.

-The 7th defensemen spot battle still seems pretty wide open.  Matt Walker has the most NHL bona fides, but also a much bigger contract than Gustafsson and Bartulis, so he will have to be that much better than them to make the team.

-Good stuff from Bobrovsky thus far.  I previously said the Flyers would've been crazy to give the keys to the team this season, which I still definitely believe, but a year as a backup could be great for him.  Especially if he plays like this for an extended period.