Don't do it

The consensus in the Philly media yesterday is that the Flyers have prepared a 12 year, $115 million offer to Stamkos as a RFA, and are torn about whether to formally submit it on Friday.

I really really hope the Flyers don't.

Stamkos is probably the best goalscorer in the league.  He should be scoring 40+/year for many years to come, but that contract is huge.  A $9.5+ cap hit every year for a dozen years?  That is a heavy burden no matter how good the player.

Regardless of evaluating the contract in absolute terms, it makes less sense for the Flyers at this point.  A lot can and will change, but if the Flyers don't go after Stamkos their lineup may look something like this;

JVR-Giroux-Cole
Voracek-Briere-Simmonds
Hartnell-Schenn-Versteeg
Holmstrem-Betts-Nodl
Shelley

Pronger-Carle
Timonen-Coburn
Meszaros-Gustafsson
Bartulis

Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky

With estimated values for Cole ($2.5), Voracek ($2.5) and Simmonds ($1.75), the lineup above would likely be around $63.1 million, leaving a little more than $1m in cap space.

To bring in Stamkos at near $10m the Flyers would have to cut A LOT, meaning firesale prices and/or simply cutting some combination of Versteeg, Hartnell, Shelley, Bobrovsky, Carle, and putting Schenn in the AHL next year.  A Stamkos lineup might look something like this;

JVR-Stamkos-Voracek
Briere-Giroux-Simmonds
Nodl-????-????
Holmstrem-Betts-Sestito

Pronger-Carle

Timonen-Coburn

Meszaros-Gustafsson

Bartulis

Bryzgalov

Boucher

Again using some estimates, the lineup above would cost ~$58.3 million against the cap.  That leaves ~$5m to sign 2 or 3 forwards.

Personally, I think the Stamkos lineup is probably worse than the non-Stamkos lineup due to worse 3rd and 4th lines.  Even if you consider the Stamkos lineup better, just to achieve that hypothetical you are; 1) dumping several forward contracts, which is always easier for fans to talk about than to actually accomplish, 2) giving up some package of picks/prospects to have the rights to Stamkos (4 first round picks unless the Flyers work out a deal with Tampa), and 3) hand-tying your cap space for the next several seasons.  A fourth factor is that TB has up to 7 days to match the offer, so if the Flyers submit an offer sheet they are basically frozen out of the free agency signing period to wait on Stamkos who may or may not come.

I feel pretty strongly that to invite all these negative consequences is only acceptable if you're making your team much better.  I don't think that's the case here.  The Flyers can make room for Stamkos if they are willing to simply dump big contracts, but taken as a whole I don't like that plan one bit.