Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Signing Bryzgalov

There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task.  That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done.  Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.

So what will he sign for?  The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down.  I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m.  Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little.  Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.

Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space?  I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away.  That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen.  Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
  -First thing, Carter could go.  I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
  -Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky.  It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m.  Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option.  I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
  -Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit.  The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him.  Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
  -Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter.  He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
  -Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses.  For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust.  That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.

So what should the Flyers be looking for in return?  Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.

It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
  -One possible trade partner is Florida.  Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him.  They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year.  Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
  -There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter.  I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
  -Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
  -Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.

The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky.  What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.

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