Sunday, November 13, 2011

The Numbers on Coburn Extension

Last week Coburn signed a $4.5x4 contract with the Flyers.  He was due to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.  Good deal?  Let's see.

Coburn is currently 26 years old, and skates very well for a man his size, 6'5".  However he doesn't play as big as his size might suggest.  His production has declined steadily the last few seasons, down to 2g, 16a last season.  He plays about 21 minutes a night.

What are comparable free agent defensemen contracts signed in the last two years?

Offseason 2010:
Zbynek Michalek - 27, $4x5, ~20 point, ~22 minutes/game
Sergei Gonchar - 36, $5.5x3, high scoring, ~23 minutes/game
Paul Martin - 29, $5x5, ~30 points, 23/24 minutes/game
Derek Morris - 31, $2.75x4, mid 20s points, ~21 minutes/game
Toni Lydman - 32, $3x3, low 20s points, 19-22 minutes/game

Offseason 2011:
Jonathan Ericsson - 26, $3.25x3, high teens points, high teens minutes
Roman Hamrlik - 36, $3.5x3, low 30s points, ~22 minutes

Really the closest comparison to Coburn are the contracts of Michalek and Martin, and Coburn's contract splits the difference between the two.  The Flyers basically paid prevailing market prices, no more, no less.  Fans tend to hear a number, and subjectively judge whether Player A is "__ million dollar defensemen."  That's not really connected to reality.  Coburn has his limitations, but he can play significant minutes and be comfortable on the second pair, and $4-5 million is the price for that right now.

1 comment:

  1. Seems like a fair deal, with Coburn being young enough to hope for some improvement.

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