Monday, January 7, 2013

Lockout Post-Mortem

At last, the league and players have agreed to a cease-fire, and the NHL season will soon be upon us.  I purposely shut it down and avoided commenting on a situation that defied intelligent discussion.  Before I start writing again about, you know, actual hockey, here's a few conclusions I reached about the whole affair.

One, there was incredible disdain exhibited towards the fans.  There was no bona fide effort to start the season on-time, and actual good faith negotiating didn't even start until December.  Both sides simply didn't care about missing a good chunk of this season, and were willing to sit on their hands for weeks or months at a time lest they forfeit a precious inch in negotiations.  The idea that there was any duty to the fans, who are voiceless in the process, obviously never crossed the minds' of either side.

Two, the league and the players have been much closer on the key issues than they would let on.  The biggest issues of the lockout, hockey related revenue distribution and escrow payments, were settled several weeks ago.  However, the league and the players obviously had a deep distrust of one another, did everything they could to break the unity of the other side and "win" the negotiations, and were each willing to go the brink.  Indeed, they were determined to wait until midnight before making a deal in order to squeeze every last penny from the deal.  As a result, fans were scorned by a mind-numbing and completely gratuitous month of negotiations (see point 1 again).

Three, please be Bettman's final CBA negotiation!  I am not a "blame-everything-on-Bettmann" person, but enough is enough.  He's not a hockey guy, fans don't like him in the first place, and his no-holds-barred negotiation style infuriates fans.  His real sin now, however, is incompetence.  He's presided over three CBA negotiations, each one going to lengthy lockouts (see chart below for games lost by league, and this chart doesn't even count the 625 games lost by this lockout!!).  This is a major failure itself.  Even worse, when he "wins" negotiations like 2004-05, he still brokers a deal that proves to be untenable for the owners!  20 years is long enough for any commissioner, and it's way too long for Bettman and the NHL.



Four, the single biggest reason for another bitter lockout is that the league over-expanded and finds itself with franchises that are simply not viable.  This happened under Bettman's watch and he deserves some blame here, but not all of it my opinion.  According to Forbes reports, only a few NHL teams turn a profit, with the majority of NHL teams seeing no reasonable prospect of profitable seasons--the only question in each year is how much will they lose.  Each owner got one vote in the process, so now you had a situation where the "poor" owners outnumber the "wealthy" owners, and thus dictate an extremely hard bargaining line because they have nothing to lose.  For them, losing a season to radically change the financial landscape of the league is worth it.  The 90s strategy to increase the national footprint of the NHL has been a failure, and this season's lockout is it's latest and perhaps most sour consequence.

I have not decided what, if any, personal fan boycott is appropriate for how the NHL disregarded its fans.  I never made any strident "I'm never coming back!" proclamations, but when in doubt this season, I will pass on buying tickets or merchandes, etc...

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