Luongo???

The CBA is still an unsigned "tentative" agreement, training camps haven't started, and the Flyers are already at the center of a juicy rumor and potential goalie controversy.

Yesterday, a report gained some traction that the Flyers were interested in Luongo, whose potential move to Toronto has been dragging on for 8 or 9 years (or maybe it just seems that long).  Holmgren immediately shot it down, but some TSN guys, foremostly host James Duthie, insists it's true.  My first reaction was, what?

First of all, the fact that Holmgren denied any interest doesn't mean much.  Taking a cue from Bobby Clarke, his word on trade denials is basically worthless.  Still, why would the Flyers be interested??

Luongo is 33 years old and owed ~$47 million over the next 10 years, carrying a cap hit of $5.33 million.  Bryzgalov is 32 and is owed $41 million over the next 8 years at a cap hit of $5.66.  These are two of the biggest goalie contracts in the league.  Let's have them both?

I think Luongo is generally regarded as the better goalie, but I'm not sure how significant a difference it would be.  Both goalies are coming off disappointing seasons, and their ability to carry a team to a cup is being questioned.

Their 3 year performance record isn't very different either:

Bryzgalov:
2010 - 42-20-6, 2.29 GAA, .920 sv %, 2nd in Vezina voting
2011 - 36-20-10, 2.48 GAA, .921 sv %, 6th in Vezina voting
2012 - 33-16-7, 2.48 GAA, .909 sv %, not in Vezina voting

Luongo:
2010 - 40-22-4, 2.57 GAA, .913 sv %, 10th in Vezina voting
2011 - 38-15-7, 2.11 GAA, .928 sv %, 3rd in Vezina voting
2012 - 31-14-8, 2.51 GAA, .919 sv %, not in Vezina voting

It's interesting that Luongo and Bryzgalov were the only 2 goalies in the league to be in the Vezina voting in both 2010 and 2011, and then both dropped out in 2012.  To Luongo's credit, if you expand that time window a little more you'll see Luongo being the Vezina runner-up in 2007 and finishing third 2004, and receiving votes in other seasons as well.

Either way, let's take this to mean Luongo is a slight upgrade to Bryzgalov right now.  Is this worth giving up assets for?  Frankly I have no idea what Luongo commands in a trade these days when he clearly has one foot out the door in Vancouver, but I wouldn't give up much for him if I were the Flyers for what amounts to a small marginal benefit (if the Flyers were still rolling out Bob and Leighton, the marginal benefit would be much larger).

Second, assuming the Flyers make an opportunistic deal at a cheap price, how would it work if he got here?  Between his contract and his NMC, I don't think Bryzgalov can be traded, and he cannot be bought out until after the season.  So you have Bryzgalov and Luongo trading starts competing for the starting job, and then loser of that competition is paid $25 million to go away after the season?  Seems kind of insane to me.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers poked around Luongo's availability, but I don't see the endgame here.