Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.
What's Hot: Jake Voracek. Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now. His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games. Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season. Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since. Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best. Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.
What's Not: Ilya Bryzgalov. He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping. He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks. He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals. Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.
What's Hot: The Flyers first PP unit. This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals. When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.
What's Not: The Flyers second PP unit. These guys are still pretty hopeless.
What's Hot: Brayden Schenn. I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season. That's progress.
What's Not: Trading for veterans or rentals. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender. This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise. Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do). Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games. He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore. I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.
The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure. I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental. If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs. If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided. Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons. That should interest other teams. Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.
Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov. If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Flyers Finding Their Niche
I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind. They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand. The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams. They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.
The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year. They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare. Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better. The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.
The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile. For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever). Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.
It's also fragile because of the youth up front. Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup. Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up. It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.
Speak of Jagr...
Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far. Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games. The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected. Also;
-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals. The other key departure for the Flyers this year.
-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year. Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that. He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.
-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.
Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia. That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.
But Don't Panic
The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l
Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades. For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea. The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen. Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.
Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year. He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice. After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6. $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...
Monday, February 4, 2013
The Flyers Are not a Good Team
Let's just get that out of the way. The 2013 Flyers are not a good team. They are ill equipped and disorganized, and those things don't spontaneously turn around or respond to a band-aid fix. The question is, are they a mediocre team or a terrible team?
The Flyers split their games over the weekend, but neither game was all that pretty. The Flyers loss to the Caps should be sobering--the Caps were 1-5-1 and generally a lifeless team, playing in the second night of back to back games, while the Flyers were coming off a 2 day break. Somehow the Flyers got outplayed. A win against Carolina followed, where a 5 goal outburst and 39 saves from Bryzgalov camouflaged a very sloppy performance.
In preparation for these games, Laviolette basically did what I called for in a post last week; he put together a line of Briere-Giroux-Simmonds, and spent their entire practice on Thursday on the power play. These changes yielded rewards, as Giroux and Briere combined for 5 points this weekend, mostly on a drastically improved PP.
Even taking these gains into account, I see scant hopes for long term success. Why?
-The Flyers have no threat on the back-end. With Carle departed, Meszaros out, and Timonen about to turn78 38 years old, there is no take-charge puck carrier on the blue line.
-The forward corp is short on skill players or snipers. Even worse, with Simmonds and Hartnell both injured, they've also lost their 2 best goal scoring power forwards. Many dreary offensive performances lie ahead.
-B. Schenn and Cooter are not ready. This team is scary young down the middle, relying on a 21 year old and a 20 year old as their second and third line centers. There is no margin of error for these guys this season, and they don't appear ready for that burden. Shades of the disastrous 2006-07 season when 22 year old Carter and Richards weren't ready for similar roles and clocked in with <40 point seasons?
-General disorganization. The Flyers look disorganized. They still have coverage breakdowns, and their passing is slow and hesitant. You almost never see them snap the puck around between players.
The Flyers currently sit 14th out of 15 in the East. It's not an insurmountable hole for a good team, but the Flyers are not a good team this year.
The Flyers split their games over the weekend, but neither game was all that pretty. The Flyers loss to the Caps should be sobering--the Caps were 1-5-1 and generally a lifeless team, playing in the second night of back to back games, while the Flyers were coming off a 2 day break. Somehow the Flyers got outplayed. A win against Carolina followed, where a 5 goal outburst and 39 saves from Bryzgalov camouflaged a very sloppy performance.
In preparation for these games, Laviolette basically did what I called for in a post last week; he put together a line of Briere-Giroux-Simmonds, and spent their entire practice on Thursday on the power play. These changes yielded rewards, as Giroux and Briere combined for 5 points this weekend, mostly on a drastically improved PP.
Even taking these gains into account, I see scant hopes for long term success. Why?
-The Flyers have no threat on the back-end. With Carle departed, Meszaros out, and Timonen about to turn
-The forward corp is short on skill players or snipers. Even worse, with Simmonds and Hartnell both injured, they've also lost their 2 best goal scoring power forwards. Many dreary offensive performances lie ahead.
-B. Schenn and Cooter are not ready. This team is scary young down the middle, relying on a 21 year old and a 20 year old as their second and third line centers. There is no margin of error for these guys this season, and they don't appear ready for that burden. Shades of the disastrous 2006-07 season when 22 year old Carter and Richards weren't ready for similar roles and clocked in with <40 point seasons?
-General disorganization. The Flyers look disorganized. They still have coverage breakdowns, and their passing is slow and hesitant. You almost never see them snap the puck around between players.
The Flyers currently sit 14th out of 15 in the East. It's not an insurmountable hole for a good team, but the Flyers are not a good team this year.
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