Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

Carter and Richards Play for the Cup

It is a perfect nightmare for many Flyers fans to see players that the Flyers happily casted off have a chance to win the cup elsewhere just one year later.  Rationally, the fact that Richards and Carter ended up in the same place and now may win the cup before the Flyers says absolutely nothing at all about the wisdom of the big trades last summer, however.

I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team.  That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok.  It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that.  The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership.  That trade's success remains  less clear.

Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3

34 and 44 points?  Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.

So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3

I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs.  He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way.  This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).

Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game).  His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track.  Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game).  He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games.  Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.

I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade.  They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.

Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified.  I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.

Bromance Rekindled

After a tumultuous year, the couple that has been together since they were teenagers have found each other again.

 

If the Kings weren't already "Flyers West" with all their former flyers players and coaches, it could get even more uncanny.

The scorecard;

-Dean Lombardi, Kings GM, former Flyers scout

-Ron Hextall, Kings Assistant GM, nearly 500 games played for the Flyers

-Terry Murray, Kings coach until early this season, former Flyers coach

-John Stevens, interim Kings coach, former Flyers coach

-Active players: Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Justin Williams

Then there's this nugget from Bob McKenzie this morning: "Why trade Brown? IMO, LAK like Brown as "player," not as enthused about Brown as captain. IMO, only matter of time til Mike Richards gets C."

In short order the Kings could be a team coached by John Stevens, captained by Mike Richards, with Jeff Carter as their leading goal scorer.  Sound familiar?

Carter Trade II 

If you're keeping score at home, the return the Blue Jackets received for Carter is a mid-first round pick and Jack Johnson.  The return the Flyers received was a high first round pick, Jake Voracek and a 3rd round pick.  Columbus did well to salvage a trade that has been disastrous for them, but the Flyers can be pleased they got more value and appear to have sold high on Carter.

In on Brown

Both Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie say the Flyers are involved in talks for Brown, so I'm going to take it as truth.  Dustin Brown is the captain of the Kings, is generally good for 25 goals and 60 points, and hits everything that moves.  The question is, can the Flyers afford his cap hit this season?  Brown's cap hit of just $3.125 is generally very desirable, but the Flyers are already up against the cap this season.  If the Flyers were to trade JVR+ for Brown, they would still need to trim ~$1.5m elsewhere on the roster.  Ironically, making this trade would increase cap space for the Flyers next season as JVR's cap hit rises to $4.25 next year.

The Flyers roster this season doesn't have any clear holes anymore, so a trade for Brown is bordering on gratuitous, though it would make the Flyers a better team this year and next.  Either way, only a few more days of the trade rumors before the deadline.  Until then, JVR will probably be very nervous.  Also, FWIW, Pierre LeBrun wrote on ESPN.com this morning that a few weeks the Flyers were talking JVR for Jack Johnson, but obviously it didn't happen (perhaps due to JVR's concussion?).