Monday, June 17, 2013

Bobrovsky Takes the Vezina

I've already written a bit about Bob's huge season, and the hand-wringing amongst Flyers fans about where the Flyers blew it.  Now his Vezina victory is official, and I'm still serene about the whole thing.

Why am I so serene about it?  Basically because he won it on two months of hot play, and two months don't change everything.  What I wrote previously was a basically a subjective history--here are actual stats of season performances.

At the end of February this season, Bob was 3-6-3, .899%, and 0 SOs.  Nothing any Flyer fan would think twice about.  Over the next two months, Bob caught fire and would go 18-5-3, .946% and 4 SOs.  Thus he won the Vezina in a 4 month season with a cumulative stat line of 21-11-6,  .932%.  History has shown us however, that the first 4 months of the season usually go very well for Bobrovsky, and then the wheels come off.

First, you might notice a general pattern to Bobrovsky's seasons in this chart;

                                    2010 w/Flyers            2011 w/Flyers         2012 w/ Jackets

You can begin to see a pattern there of peaking around month 4 of the season, then sagging thereafter.  Moreover, in all 3 seasons, his month 4 performance is extremely similar.  That chart is still a little convoluted though.  Strip away more of the noise, and just break it up at the 4 month mark of the season.  The dichotomy becomes much more clear;


The second half of the season has been much more challenging for Bobrovsky thus far in his career, and it's probably not a coincidence that his first big season has come in a year where there was no second half.  What he did in the first 4 months of 2012 is better than his first two years with the Flyers, but not drastically so.

Is it possible that he wouldn't have had a bad second half, and he has simply developed his game?  Of course.  Is this a jaded fan rationalization?  Probably.  But I still don't have too many regrets over the situation.

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