Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Streit Agrees to Deal

Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m.  Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.

Is this a good deal?

Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle.  Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen.  Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively.  The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league.  He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.

Streit has a very similar scouting report.  Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP.  Also a bit weak defensively.  The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists.  He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.

All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option.  He is a little bigger and 9 years younger.  Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books.  Otherwise, very similar players.

Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him.  Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.

So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.

Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:

That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year).  I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot.  I'll leave that question for another post though.

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