Playoff Picks 2014

Bruins	Red Wings
Regulation Record: 47-19-16 (110 points) Last Year: lost in finals (6 games) to Hawks	Regulation Record: 30-28-24 (84 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (7 games) to Hawks
+Clearly the most solid team in the East, if not the NHL +Best 5v5 team in NHL, easily best overall goal differential +Much improved PP from previous seasons +Dominant in 3rd period +Recent history of playoff success -???	-Worst record of all playoff teams when scoring first -Doesn’t come from behind well and give up a lot of 3rd period goals -Negative overall goal differential -By many metrics, worst overall team in the playoffs -Datsyuk back, but Zetterberg still out?  Others?

Season matchup - Red Wings 3 to 1

In my opinion, Boston is the best team in the playoffs, and Detroit is the worst.  Is there any good news for Detroit?  Yes--Boston had a worse record against Detroit than any other team in the league.  That still will only get Detroit 2 wins here.  Boston in 6.

Penguins	Blue Jackets
Regulation Record: 40-24-18 (98 points) Last Year: lost in 3rd (4 games) to Bruins	Regulation Record: 35-32-15 (85 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Quietly won division with ease, despite major injury problems +#1 team in NHL when scoring first +Uber-talented offense +Top notch special teams (#1 PP, #2 PK) -Leadership deficit and flaming wreck playoff series losses last few seasons -Rely on PP for high % of goals -Fleury has been simply awful in playoffs last few years	+Play tough, hit a lot +Breakout season from Ryan Johansen, solid season from Bobrovsky -Down two of their more talented forwards in Umberger and Horton

Season matchup - Pittsburgh won all 5

Despite all their talent, the Pens have not made a noticeable run in a few years.  In an injury filled season, they might finally have a near complete lineup in the playoffs.  This is enough to beat the Jackets.  Pens in 5.

Canadiens	Lightning
Regulation Record: 33-28-21 (87 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (5 games) to Sens	Regulation Record: 32-27-23 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Much improved season from Price +Career year from Pacioretty -Bad record when allowing first goal +#1 shot blocking in NHL	-Lost their captain in unusual circumstances +Just got Stamkos back -Incredible season from Bishop, but it looks like he is out

Season Matchup - 1 TB win, 3 OT games

Not a very sexy matchup, and I don’t like either team’s chances of going far.  I was right to be skeptical of the Habs last year, should I be skeptical again?  I feel a little bit better about them this year.  Prepare for a lot of 2-1 games in this series, meaning it will probably turn on hustle and bounces.  I’ll say Montreal in 7.

Rangers	Flyers
Regulation Record: 39-31-12 (90 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (5 games) to Bruins	Regulation Record: 35-30-17 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
-Big acquisition St. Louis slow to fit in +Very tough defense and goaltending -Not much offense +#4 shot differential in NHL +Can really lock down 3rd period	+Overcame brutal start, been one of top teams in East since -PP faded at end of season, which they can’t afford +Lots of 3rd period comebacks -Relatively weak defense among playoff teams, prone to d-zone breakdowns, and underwater on 5v5 goal differential +Lots of offensive depth with seven 20 goal scorers -Mason hurt?

Season matchup - 2-2 split

The Rangers have owned the Flyers the last few years.  The coaches for each side has changed, and 2-2 looks even, but the Flyers losing streak in NY continues unabated (8 games now).  I’d like to think the Flyers are a better team than NY, but I have a bad feeling that NY will simply outlast the Flyers with patient play.  Flyers will need a big PP effort if they hope to win.  NY in 7.

Ducks	Stars
Regulation Record: 44-20-18 (106 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (7 games) to Wings	Regulation Record: 34-31-17 (85 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+#1 comeback team in NHL +#2 offense in NHL +#2 5v5 goal differential in league -Top heavy offense with Perry and Getzlaf, and young defense -So-so special teams -Boudrea teams 2-5 in playoff series, despite usually being the higher seed	+Seguin-Benn-Nichushkin could be a classic line in the making +Draw a ton of penalties -But have a weak PP -Top heavy offense with Seguin and Benn

Season matchup - Stars took 2 of 3

The Ducks had another great regular season, having 4 more regulation wins than any team in the West.  Dallas was the last team to lock up their playoff spot, and are really just an average NHL team.  They’re not particularly efficient at winning when scoring first, and the Ducks are the best at coming from behind in such situations.  Dallas will never be safe this series.  Ducks in 6.

Avalanche	Wild
Regulation Record: 37-22-23 (97 points) Last Year:missed playoffs	Regulation Record: 32-27-23 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Massive turnaround season -Lineup still very young, untested in playoffs.  Too soon? +Excellent at protecting 3rd period lead +Great record on the road (even if their road +/- is only +5) -26th in shot differential	+Bryzgalov to the rescue after 3 Wild goalies went down with injuries--Harding back for the playoffs? -Worst away record of any playoff team

Season matchup - 3-1-1 for the Avalanche

Some series you can look at and immediately see a clear favorite.  Some series you can look at and know it will be a tight battle, even if the ultimate winner is tough to pick.  This series you look at, and don’t know how it’s going to go.  Two teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year, with a particularly stunning turnaround for the Avs.  It all seems too fast for them, and I have this nagging feeling that their ability to win close games (which was bolstered by a league leading 10 OT victories), often while being outshot, could quickly slip away.  The Avs are not as strong as their seed suggests, but is Minnesota the team to knock them off?  I can’t quite go that far.  Avs in 7.

Sharks	Kings
Regulation Record: 37-22-23 (97 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (7 games) to Kings	Regulation Record: 34-28-20 (88 points) Last Year: lost in 3rd (5 games) to Hawks
+Breakout season for Joe Pavelski +Best home record in NHL +Block a ton of shots, lots of takeaways +Best shot differential in league	-Sloppy; 29th in blocked shots, 30th in missed shots, 27th in giveaways, 30th in takeaways +Very good shot differential +Hold opponents to very low shooting %, and very tough to score on even strength +Lots of hits -Anemic offense and poor PP

Season Matchup:  Even 2-2-1

In their playoffs series last year, the home team won every game.  During this regular season, the home team won every game except a sole 1-0 Kings road victory.  Does the Sharks’ home ice advantage tip the series?  I always get burned picking against the Kings, and the Kings will be the popular pick here, but doing so one more time won’t hurt me.  Sharks in 7.

Blackhawks	Blues
Regulation Record: 39-21-22 (100 points) Last Year: Stanley Cup	Regulation Record: 40-23-19 (99 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (6 games) to Kings
+Defending champs +Toews and Kane returning from injury -Play loose--high scoring games, high shooting % against	+Lineup primed for playoff success now with coming of age core, veteran acquisitions +Excellent overall goal differential -Total meltdown down the stretch--6 straight losses, 2 goals or less in 9 straight games -Several key forwards carrying injuries

Season matchup - 3-2 for the Blues

Last year the Blues were the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs, but couldn’t get past the Kings.  This year they looked like cup favorites all year, but this late collapse has thrown them into a nightmare matchup with the defending champs.  Even assuming all their injured forwards get back for most of the 1st round, I can’t pick them to knock off the champs.  Hawks in 6.