New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.

A Few Wins, and a Few Thoughts

Since my last post, the Flyers have notched two confident wins, beating the Devils and Hurricanes 4-1 and 5-1 respectively.  I take a few things from those wins.

-Secondary scoring.  It was a very Ed Snider thing to do what he did 2 weeks ago; calling out individuals for not performing in the middle of a season.  As the godfather of the Flyers, he does what he wants, even if other owners would never dare. 

Most of the credit towards the Flyers improved recent play comes down to contributions from secondary lines, and specifically Simmonds, Couturier and Read.  Is it a coincidence that those were the three guys Snider named?  Since those comments; Simmonds has 5 goals in 5 games (after a stretch of 3 goals in 20 games), Couturier is on 6 game points streak, and Read got his first goal and points in a few weeks.

I do not think comments from the owner were major catalysts for these guys, and furthermore today Berube revealed that Read has been playing through a foot injury this season.  Let's just chalk it up to Snider stating the obvious, and talented players eventually coming around.  Whatever it was, the Flyers really need the secondary scoring to continue.

-Better than the Bottom-Dwellers.  Both of the Flyers' big wins came against bottom teams in the Eastern Conference.  As I remarked in my last post, say what you will about this team, but they are better than a basement team.  The Flyers will have to start beating good teams to make the playoffs too, but I expect to see the Flyers lift themselves up and away in the standings from the truly bad NHL teams.

-Penalty Kill Still Sucks.  The good news is that the Flyers haven't allowed a 5v5 goal in 3 games.  The bad news is that the penalty kill continues to limp along, allowing 4 goals in the last 3 games.  This must change.  In my opinion, the awful PK is really the only significant difference between this year's lousy team and last year's playoff quality team, but more on that in my next post.

Is This the New Normal?

Flyers wrapped up a 4 game road trip, 1-1-2.  It is an improvement from the terrible stretch of play discussed in my last post, as they were competitive in every game.  Is this the best we can ask of this team?  To be merely be competitive?

Sequentially, the Flyers played a pretty good game in SJ but came away empty handed due to a shocking last minute goal against.  They followed that up with a fun game against Anaheim, including a clutch last second goal and the seemingly inevitable shootout loss.  The Flyers finally got a win versus LA, where they've had a lot of success the last few years, by having a good first 30 minutes, then hanging on for dear life the last 30.  The trip then ended with a bit of a thud, getting outplayed most of the game by Columbus (one of the worst teams in the East).

It's nice to see Schenn producing, and guys like Umberger are showing modest improvement, but the team feels like a mess.  There's some musical chairs happening on defense, and Lecavalier has been stuck in the press box.  It's an untenable state of affairs, and there's little reason to be expect a significant turnaround.

The Flyers are swimming with the bottom-dwellers in the standings.  If you break down their performance, they deserve to be there.

5v5: 22nd
Shot differential: 22nd
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Save Percentage: 18th

Right now the Flyers are mediocre team with a crippling penalty kill.

I am also hearing some fans say they aren't surprised by this.  I will say that I AM, to some extent.  The bottom line is the Flyers were one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from November 1 onwards last season (3rd overall I think, only behind Boston and Pittsburgh).  Now I certainly wouldn't have predicted them 3rd this year, especially without Timonen, but I thought they had a very good chance at a bottom half playoff spot.

That playoff spot is rapidly slipping away, leading many fans to talk of tanking to get highly anticipated prospects McDavid or Eichel.  Personally, I am not a fan of this plan, and there's not much reason to do so.  Here are the lottery odds this year.

It is true that finishing dead last would guarantee the Flyers a top 2 pick and one of McDavid or Eichel.  Beyond that, each slot on that chart only increases your chance at the #1 pick by a very small amount.  I think the bottom line is that the Flyers are a significantly better team than Edmonton, Buffalo and Carolina, and the Flyers lottery odds will be in the middle of the pack for non-playoff teams; i.e. not good.

Instead of chasing lottery balls, the Flyers can transition into making moves that won't pay off for another season or two.  Even then the Flyers don't have any obvious playoff rental material, but they can start shipping out defensemen as the defense will have to be entirely rebuilt anyway.

As sad as it is to say, it may be time for Flyers fans to switch into player development watching mode.  Giroux and Voracek are undoubtedly top notch players, but that's not enough.  Personally, I'll probably be spending much of this season focusing on the development of Schenn, Couturier and Laughton.