New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.