Draft Thoughts Follow-up

Just as a brief follow-up to my post on drafting Couturier over Hamilton in 2011, I was struck by an article on ESPN today.  Now the article is concerned with NFL drafting, so it's only loosely analogous, but there's one passage that stood out to me:

"...as a collective entity, the league does an acceptable job of putting guys in buckets.
When it comes to valuing draftees at the same position who are clumped together in a similar tier, I'm skeptical. I wonder whether the margin of error in analyzing those players is larger than any advantage a particular franchise has in scouting talent."
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9202430/bill-barnwell-inconsistency-nfl-draft

It's also worth considering that NFL drafts are for guys in their early 20s for very specialized roles.  If anything, scouting NFL draft picks should be much easier than NHL teams drafting 18-year olds.

I guess I just come back to the question of with what degree of confidence can any NHL team say two very closely ranked prospects is better than another?  Could the Flyers really conclude that Couturier is simply a better prospect, so forget about position?

I can't really slag on the Flyers too much, as they have generally done an excellent job with their first round picks, which are generally in the latter portions of the round.  But by trading away so many picks, and then inordinately drafting centers with the picks they do keep, clearly the Flyers have made their own bed with an empty cupboard of defensemen.

Draft Do-Over?

Regardless of where the Flyers end up picking in this draft, there's always the question of drafting to need.  Most accepted is the theory of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.  It would be pretty stupid to draft to fill a particular need of an NHL roster, simply because most draft picks take years to mature into NHL contributors.  Who knows what your specific needs will be in 5 years?  Whether or not there may be some logic in drafting for an organizational need, however, after identifying lack of depth in a certain area, isn't necessarily so stupid.

The Flyers in fact may have been much better served doing so.

Think back 2 years ago, when the Flyers obtained the Blue Jackets' #8 overall pick, a rare high pick for the Flyers.  At the time, I wrote that the Flyers would presumably look for a defensemen there.  As the draft unfolded, the chips appeared to fall perfectly for the Flyers.  As expected, Adam Larsson was the #1 defensemen available and was quickly snatched up.  After the surprise choice of Scheifele by the Jets though, #2 defensemen Dougie Hamilton was, somewhat surprisingly, still on the board when the Flyers picked.  Easy choice, right?

Not so fast, as Sean Couturier was unexpectedly still available as well.  His draft stock had fallen somewhat, as several months prior he was considered a potential #1 overall.  I think when all is said and done, the Flyers simply thought Couturier was a better player so they drafted him, despite the organization being deep at center with no high-end defensive prospects to speak of.

Two years later, things haven't changed much.  The Flyers are still well-stocked at center for now and the future with Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Couturier, Laughton and Cousins, but they are absolutely screaming for high-end (preferably puck-moving) defensive prospects.  This is not knock on Couturier at all, as I have said repeatedly I think he is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  He's had some very tough stretches this season, but I think he will bounce back and likely be a second-line center than Schenn, honestly (better defensively, bigger, and similar offensive potential based on what I'm seeing).

The only thing that hurts is what they could've had in Hamilton.  Since the draft, Hamilton won Canadien Junior defensemen of the year last year, and this year has become a key member of the cup contending Bruins.  He's getting PP time, taking shifts with Chara, has 15 points in 40 games, and overall playing 16-18 minutes a night.  He's also 6'5", has a right-handed shot, and clearly projects as a top pairing guy in the long run.  In other words, EXACTLY what the Flyers organization needs.

Because of the situation described above, the Flyer may trade Couturier this offseason.  He's their most valuable asset, and it may make sense to slot Schenn in at #2 center and Laughton at #3 (assuming he keeps impressing), leaving Couturier with no clear spot.  Oh, and the Flyers now have more of a need than ever for a long term puck-moving solution on defense.  If the Flyers want to address this problem, Couturier is the best tool to do so.  Or they could've just drafted differently 2 years ago and not have to play the fickle trade market....

Fire Laviolette?

And the survey says....yes.  I didn't want to disappoint my readership and leave this questing hanging, and moreover if he's going to get fired during this season, it might happen now that the Flyers have several days off.  Yes, I know Holmgren has recently given Laviolette the dreaded vote of confidence, but I don't think that's worth much.

Things with the Flyers are disappointing enough that most fans are pointing the finger at Laviolette.  Flyers fans are not a patient lot, but I think it makes sense this time around.

-For one, it's that time.  The average NHL coach lasts less than 3 seasons.  They are hired to be fired, and everyone knows this.  Laviolette is approaching 250 games coached with the Flyers, which is about how long his predecessors in Philadelphia lasted.

More to the point though, Laviolette is a yeller, and it seems he has lost "the room."  His uptempo attacking system demands a lot of the players, and the Flyers have been unable to consistently provide that effort.  Too often, the Flyers put in a great 10 minutes and quit until Laviolette screams at them.  It's like kids who act out as soon as their parents give them any breathing room.  It's not sustaining, and that lack of sustainability may be contributing to the Flyers awful 1-6 record when tied after 2 periods.

Also, consider Laviolette's previous jobs.  In his first season in Long Island he led them to their first playoff appearance in several seasons, but only lasted one more year after that.  In Carolina, in his first full season in charge they finished first in their division and won the cup.  2.5 mediocre years followed and he was fired.  Philadelphia continues the pattern, reaching the finals after taking over midseason, and he followed that up with a first place finish the next regular season.  The pattern seems clear; cracking success early, followed by diminishing returns thereafter.  It probably isn't wise to expect a revival under Laviolette next year.

-Second, his system is not working with this group of players.  The Flyers sorely lack puck carriers on the back end, and are not the fastest most skillful lot in general.  The makeover to the defense has actually involved Carle leaving, and big slow physical players like Schenn and Grossmann arriving.  Laviolette's system requires constant pressing, and these guys are not equipped to do so.

This system is not wide-open offense, but there are a few things that shouldn't happen when successfully instituted;
-A team that successfully presses shouldn't capitulate when falling down 1-0.  Laviolette teams are usually top 10 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 23rd.
-A team that successfully presses should get a fair amount of 5-on-5 goals.  Successful Laviolette teams are often top 5 in this category.  The Flyers are currently 22nd.


None of this is to say that the Flyers would be a juggernaut with a different coach.  They're better than this though, and I think it's time to move on.

State of the Flyers

As I see it, there are two burning questions for the Flyers at the moment.  One, should Laviolette be fired?  Two, should Couturier be traded?  The question of if the Flyers should trade to bolster this year's playoff run is no longer a reasonable question; the answer is an emphatic no.

Before getting to those burning questions, let's review the state of the Flyers through a few illustrative statistics.

-The Flyers power play is 6th overall.  After a terrible start to the season, the Flyers power play is now terrific, and operates near 30% at home.  Count this as one problem solved.

-Similarly, the penalty kill has rebounded to 11th in the league, and is a quality unit.  The problem is, the Flyers have been shorthanded 114 times, worst in the league.

-The Flyers collapse when they fall behind.  When the opponent scores first, the Flyers only win 20% of the time, 25th in the league.  When trailing after 2 periods, the Flyers are 1-10 (9.1%), 27th in the league.  Most shockingly, the Flyers are 0-10 when trailing after the first period!

-Unfortunately, I cannot find stats for when teams are tied after 2 periods.  I suspect the Flyers would be at the bottom of the league in points earned in such situations.

-The Flyers are a bad 5-on-5 team, with a goal differential of .8.  That is also 25th in the league. More concerning than absolute goal difference however, is that the Flyers are 22nd in 5-on-5 goal scoring.  An uptempo attacking team should be scoring goals, win or lose.

-I would not have guessed it, but the Flyers do a pretty good job when leading after 2 periods, winning 91.7% of the time.  This is 6th in the league.

-The Flyers actually block a lot of shots; 4th in the league.

-The Flyers are a solid 8-4-1 at home, but are 4-11-0 on the road.

So with that in mind, I will follow with a post on Laviolette this weekend.

Reality Setting In

So I've been saying it for over a month, but this is not a good hockey team.  Apparently it took many fans and media this long to come to this conclusion, but now panic and hand-wringing abounds.

The Flyers' "rivalry" week against top eastern teams has been a decisive failure.  The Flyers enjoyed first period leads of 2-1 and 4-1 respectively against the Rangers and Penguins, but then were outscored 7-0 in the remainders of those games.  Against the Bruins, the Flyers never got off the mark and took a meek 3-0 loss.

Many things are going wrong.  The players appear to have given up on Laviolette.  Bryzgalov has not been sharp.  Couturier's confidence is extremely low.  Overall frustration grows.  While I will look at some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts, suffice it to say things are looking quite bleak.

If there's any question as to how this season will progress, consider these cold hard numbers.

--The last few years, it has taken approximately 1.12 points per game to earn a playoff spot in the east.  In this shortened 48 game season, that equals 53/54 points.

--The Flyers currently have 23 points in 26 games.  This equals .88 points per game, which puts the Flyers 12th out 15 teams in the East.

--To reach 53 points, the Flyers must earn 30 points in their final 22 games, or 1.36 points per game.  This is equivalent to Pittsburgh's current record, 3rd best in the East.

Does anyone think this team is capable of performing as the third best team in the east the remainder of the season?  I didn't think so.  This team is not making the playoffs.

What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...