What Statistics Actually Indicate Post-Season Success?

Recently I've been a doing little amateur research into what regular season performance metrics actually translate into postseason success.  I haven't studied statistics since college Econ classes, so really all I could do was a simple correlation comparison on a spreadsheet, but here is what I found.

Methodology

For this test, I ran a correlation against postseason success (defined by number of playoff games won), against regular season performance statistics (defined by league standing in particular category, ie 30 points for being first place in the category, 1 point for being last place in the category).

Looking at it now, there are two ways to improve this methodology.  One, would be to standardize the performance statistics such that, instead of giving one "point" for each spot in league standing, the statistic would be relative to the league mean.  This is because sometimes the difference between first and second is much more significant that the difference between 10 and 15th.  This I could probably do with some time.

Second, would be to develop an adjustment for win quality.  A win against the Kings in the first round is worth more than a win against Panthers.  This is probably beyond my current statistical kung fu, though.


Results

 Takeaways

-There is no magic bullet, as my sample size probably still isn't big enough to remove the noise.  Some years, you'll have a team like the 2010 Flyers who simply weren't very good in the regular season, transform themselves in the postseason and no regular season statistic captures their real quality.  Other years, you'll have two top notch teams play each other in the first round, so one of them has to be eliminated and can't notch more than 3 playoff wins.  Still, some patterns begin to form.

-Over a 7 year window, plain old goal differential proves to be by far the most accurate predictor of winning playoff games.  Over the last 3 seasons however, penalty kill and team save percentage have been shockingly accurate in predicting playoff success.

-The last few seasons, teams that relied on the PP and a high shooting percentage in the regular season have gotten killed.  As you increase the sample size to 7 years, those numbers regress to an insignificant correlation either way.

-For all the talk of advanced statistics, looking at Corsi or Fenwick at 5v5 isn't telling you anything that more basic statistics are already capturing.  Over a 7 year window, plain old 5v5 goal differential proves a better predictor, and vanilla shot differential may be the most robust predictor of all.  My theory?  The real value of Corsi and Fenwick are that they generate more statistical events when evaluating a team over a short period of time, or an individual who is only seeing a fraction of the teams overall ice time.  In the long run however, advanced statistical events like Corsi or Fenwick will eventually translate into shots, shots will eventually translate into chances, and chances will eventually translate into goals, and goals translate into wins.  Over an 82 game window for all team events, the value of using Corsi or Fenwick statistic is minimized, and a more direct measurement of quality like goals gives a better prediction.

Conclusion

So in my highly simplified, surely flawed first analysis, I would turn to total goal differential, shot differential, penalty kill, and team save percentage as key performance indicators when you want to guess at which team is primed for playoff hockey.

Mike Richards Riding the Buses

So pretty much every Flyers fan knows by now that Mike Richards was waived, unclaimed, then sent down to the AHL by the LA Kings.  There's not all that much to say about it, although just a few comments.

First, it is pretty stunning how quickly Richards has fallen.  The guy hasn't even turned 30 yet.  It's not that long ago he was in his early 20s and putting up point-per-game seasons in Philadelphia.

Second, I'm not shocked the Kings did this now.  The Kings were *this* close to buying him out in the offseason, and apparently Richards pleaded with the Kings GM not to do it.  After a few chats, Richards was not bought out and he promised to improve his conditioning.  Accounts are that he successfully did that, but it didn't lead to results on the ice.  That faith by the Kings has now turned into a pretty big failure, as the opportunity for a cap free buyout is gone forever, and the Kings sent him down to the minors to save a measly $925k off the cap.  Viewed differently, the Kings are paying him $4.825 not to play for the big club.

Third, does this mean the Flyers "won" the trade?  I don't think that's the right question to ask.  From the Kings perspective, they won two cups with Richards on the roster, and he was fairly productive for them in the playoffs (27 points in 35 playoff games the first two playoff runs).  Really the important question for the Flyers (and moreso for their fans), is would you do the trade all over again?  The answer to that is an easy yes.

New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.

A Few Wins, and a Few Thoughts

Since my last post, the Flyers have notched two confident wins, beating the Devils and Hurricanes 4-1 and 5-1 respectively.  I take a few things from those wins.

-Secondary scoring.  It was a very Ed Snider thing to do what he did 2 weeks ago; calling out individuals for not performing in the middle of a season.  As the godfather of the Flyers, he does what he wants, even if other owners would never dare. 

Most of the credit towards the Flyers improved recent play comes down to contributions from secondary lines, and specifically Simmonds, Couturier and Read.  Is it a coincidence that those were the three guys Snider named?  Since those comments; Simmonds has 5 goals in 5 games (after a stretch of 3 goals in 20 games), Couturier is on 6 game points streak, and Read got his first goal and points in a few weeks.

I do not think comments from the owner were major catalysts for these guys, and furthermore today Berube revealed that Read has been playing through a foot injury this season.  Let's just chalk it up to Snider stating the obvious, and talented players eventually coming around.  Whatever it was, the Flyers really need the secondary scoring to continue.

-Better than the Bottom-Dwellers.  Both of the Flyers' big wins came against bottom teams in the Eastern Conference.  As I remarked in my last post, say what you will about this team, but they are better than a basement team.  The Flyers will have to start beating good teams to make the playoffs too, but I expect to see the Flyers lift themselves up and away in the standings from the truly bad NHL teams.

-Penalty Kill Still Sucks.  The good news is that the Flyers haven't allowed a 5v5 goal in 3 games.  The bad news is that the penalty kill continues to limp along, allowing 4 goals in the last 3 games.  This must change.  In my opinion, the awful PK is really the only significant difference between this year's lousy team and last year's playoff quality team, but more on that in my next post.

Is This the New Normal?

Flyers wrapped up a 4 game road trip, 1-1-2.  It is an improvement from the terrible stretch of play discussed in my last post, as they were competitive in every game.  Is this the best we can ask of this team?  To be merely be competitive?

Sequentially, the Flyers played a pretty good game in SJ but came away empty handed due to a shocking last minute goal against.  They followed that up with a fun game against Anaheim, including a clutch last second goal and the seemingly inevitable shootout loss.  The Flyers finally got a win versus LA, where they've had a lot of success the last few years, by having a good first 30 minutes, then hanging on for dear life the last 30.  The trip then ended with a bit of a thud, getting outplayed most of the game by Columbus (one of the worst teams in the East).

It's nice to see Schenn producing, and guys like Umberger are showing modest improvement, but the team feels like a mess.  There's some musical chairs happening on defense, and Lecavalier has been stuck in the press box.  It's an untenable state of affairs, and there's little reason to be expect a significant turnaround.

The Flyers are swimming with the bottom-dwellers in the standings.  If you break down their performance, they deserve to be there.

5v5: 22nd
Shot differential: 22nd
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Save Percentage: 18th

Right now the Flyers are mediocre team with a crippling penalty kill.

I am also hearing some fans say they aren't surprised by this.  I will say that I AM, to some extent.  The bottom line is the Flyers were one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from November 1 onwards last season (3rd overall I think, only behind Boston and Pittsburgh).  Now I certainly wouldn't have predicted them 3rd this year, especially without Timonen, but I thought they had a very good chance at a bottom half playoff spot.

That playoff spot is rapidly slipping away, leading many fans to talk of tanking to get highly anticipated prospects McDavid or Eichel.  Personally, I am not a fan of this plan, and there's not much reason to do so.  Here are the lottery odds this year.

It is true that finishing dead last would guarantee the Flyers a top 2 pick and one of McDavid or Eichel.  Beyond that, each slot on that chart only increases your chance at the #1 pick by a very small amount.  I think the bottom line is that the Flyers are a significantly better team than Edmonton, Buffalo and Carolina, and the Flyers lottery odds will be in the middle of the pack for non-playoff teams; i.e. not good.

Instead of chasing lottery balls, the Flyers can transition into making moves that won't pay off for another season or two.  Even then the Flyers don't have any obvious playoff rental material, but they can start shipping out defensemen as the defense will have to be entirely rebuilt anyway.

As sad as it is to say, it may be time for Flyers fans to switch into player development watching mode.  Giroux and Voracek are undoubtedly top notch players, but that's not enough.  Personally, I'll probably be spending much of this season focusing on the development of Schenn, Couturier and Laughton.

Flyers Searching for the Bottom

Any way you look at it, it's awful.  The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9.  Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records.  The penalty kill is dead last.  They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders.  The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage.  The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.

Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger.  For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible.  It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot.  One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.

Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line.  Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular.  Every other line has disappeared.  Lecavalier can't find a role.  Umberger has been total deadweight.  Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it.  Simmonds has faded after his promising start.  Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.

Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team.  The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year.  Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess.  I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.

Trade Speculation: Oilers and Flyers

The Oilers are terrible.  They and Buffalo are the worst teams in the league.  Most recently, the Oilers were crushed 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks and were booed and heckled off the ice.  As you would expect, fans are frustrated and the team must be looking at all alternatives of management changes or making a trade.

The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron.  In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn.  One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.

Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now?  Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add.  The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers.  Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger.  I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions.  He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.

Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games.  This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team.  Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.

While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that.  Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier?  I think they'd listen.

Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain.  Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn.  This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier. 

In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill.  Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off.  Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season.  Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.

Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month.  The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions.  Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.

The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks.  Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer.  He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons.  He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.

My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season.  Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract.  Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs.  Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.