Giroux resigns - what does it mean for Carter's value?

Somewhat without warning, Claude Giroux signed a new contract with the Flyers this week. He will get a hefty raise and the Flyers will lock him up for 3 years at cap number of $3.75 million. Giroux get his well deserved money, and the Flyers will still retain his RFA rights when this deal expires. Huzzah for everyone!!

Of course the more interesting question is what does this mean for the squad as a whole, and most importantly, resigning Jeff Carter. While opinions differ amongst Flyers fans on just how good Carter is, he's led the team in goals the last 2 years, and is at the point in his career when most players see big raises. The big caveat to all this however is that the NHL salary market has kind of tanked in the last few years.

Giroux's deal itself spells this out. Former first round pick, aged 22, coming off a 47 point regular season, and a big playoff run with 21 points in 23 games. What's it worth in 2010? $3.75 million.

On the other hand, at age 23 in 2008, Carter got $5 million for virtually the same credentials: former first round pick, 53 point regular season, 12 points in 17 playoffs games. Jeff Carter may have been a little more hyped as a prospect due to his AHL and WJC success, but Giroux has arguably accomplished more at the NHL level than Carter did at the time of his contract.

So blah blah blah. What I take from this is that Jeff Carter's coming off a contract that, at today's market prices, would've been worth $3.75-$4 million dollars. So even if he gets a small nominal raise (say just over $5 million), it's essentially a significant real value raise. (Not that I expect any comments on this, but please no one disturb this surely impeccable analysis)

You have to expect Carter and his agent will ask for $6+ million based on nominal figures, but the Flyers cap space isn't exactly plentiful and the Flyers will probably try to rely on depressed market prices. The heady days of 2007/08 with Jeff Finger (now in the AHL) signing for $3.5 million/year, or Thomas Vanek getting $7+ million for one breakout year are gone, at least for now. This is the new reality of contracts for NHL forwards in 2010:

-Joe Thornton ($7m)
-Bobby Ryan ($5.1m)
-Alex Steen ($3.4)
-Ollli Jokinen ($3m)
-Vaclav Prospal ($2.1m)
-Saku Koivu ($2.5m)
-Tanguay ($1.7)

I'm expecting Carter to come in at $5.25-5.75 million on his new deal. And based on some rumblings last week, it might be signed sooner rather than later.

Then Flyers fan can start to worry about signing Leino....