Thursday, June 27, 2013
Bryz a Free Bird
My read was that the Flyers wanted to buy out Bryz, but would not do so this offseason until they had an alternative locked up. Even if they want to give Mason significant playing time, they still need another goalie, and Bryz is still a decent quality goalie.
No need to beat dead horses, but Bryzgalov is coming off a decent season from a purely performance standpoint. The problem is his contract and his attitude. He has not been a difference maker, and no one wants to tolerate that circus for 7 more years of decent-but-not-great goaltending.
Then when you see quotes as in this piece, Bryzgalov seemed to be accelerating his own departure. He obviously hates the media here (with some justification), and he just doesn't want to fight the fight anymore to succeed here in a system of play that does not complement his skills well. All in all, even though I have been somewhat of a Bryz apologist, and recently wrote about the benefits of buying him out next summer, this is not a bad solution.
I also might feel slightly bad for Bryz, getting run out of town and the Flyers making the biggest buyout in NHL history to rid themselves of him, but consider he will effectively be paid $40m for 2 seasons by the Flyers. Even if he never plays in the NHL again, worse things could happen to someone.
Another factor I did not consider previously was the effect of carrying Bryz this season on the Flyers "tagging space". The issue there is that a team cannot exceed the present season's salary cap with contracts committed to the following year. If Bryz was still on the team, his cap hit would be "tagged" to next season's payroll, taking up space the Flyers might otherwise wish to allocate to new deals for Giroux, Couturier and Schenn. As it stands now, with Mesz and Timonen likely leaving, Bryz and Briere bought out, the Flyers only have $39m committed to the 2014-15 season, and thus have plenty of space to get those guys resigned during this coming season and protect themselves from RFA offer complications.
Goalie Alternatives
Now that the Flyers have a spot to fill, the fun part is evaluating replacement candidates. The presumption I will make for this analysis is the Flyers want to bring him above simple backup quality, and who will be capable of carrying the load if Mason sputters.
Luongo - The biggest name, first it needs to be said that trading for Luongo is a terrible idea. He has 9 seasons left at a cap hit of $5.33m. Giving up assets for the privilege of that contract is insane. If however the Canucks buy him out (which they clearly don't want to do, but may have no other choice), the Flyers may look into an opportunistic signing. If you could sign him for a relatively cheap and short contract (say $8m over 2 years), that could really pay off.
Nabokov - This name always seems to come up on my blog. It appears he will not resign with the Islanders. Now 37, he had a pretty good season for the Isles but a disappointing playoffs. A good option, if available for cheap.
Miller - Soon to be 33, a few seasons ago he seemed like a golden boy. I think his play slipped last season, and he appears to have worn out his welcome speaking his mind in Buffalo. He's got a big cap hit next season, and then will be a free agent. If I were the Flyers, I would not trade anything of value for another outspoken goalie who will be a free agent soon.
Emery - Another name that has been on this blog several times before. A free agent who did not play in the playoffs for the champion Hawks, a regular season line of 17-1, .922% and 3 SOs seems to confirm he is back from his injury concerns. Again, if cheap and brief, he might be a good signing and a good partner with Mason to compete for job.
Thomas - I'm not 100% sure what his contract status his after sitting out last season, but presuming he is a free agent, and one year deal for him would certainly be interesting. Now 39, he is only 2 years removed from a historic season, winning the Vezina, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup. With he and Mason, the Flyers would certainly have a lot of athleticism in the crease.
Smith - He had a phenomenal season 2 years ago, but that appears to be an anomaly. Also, we've seen that a goalie succeeding on Phoenix may not mesh well under Laviolette's system. Pass.
Clearly the common theme among the candidates is that Flyers should be opportunistic, and not commit too many resources to the goaltending situation this offseason. Let Mason or someone else win the job, rather than chasing a white whale.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Bryz buyout? But when?
Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunIt's not carved in stone, but in spite of what has been said in past, I expect PHI is likely to use compliance buyout on Ilya Bryzgalov.
Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie8 JunAlso, PHI is in market for D and may be willing to move one of their young centres - B Schenn or Couturier - for the right deal.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Sitting Ducks in Shootout
-This year, Bryzgalov is 0/5 in shootouts (dead last in NHL by percentage). Bobrovsky is 1/3 (51st out of 54 in the NHL, by percentage).
-All time, the Flyers are dead last in shootout wins, with 19 (in 56 games).
-All time, Flyers shooters score 28.7% of the time (25th). Flyers goalies make the save 56.9% of the time (dead last).
Looking at Bryzgalov's futility this season, it made me wonder if wearing a Flyers uniform somehow makes goalies do terribly.
-Bryzgalov; as a Flyer 0% (0/5), as a non-Flyer 66.0% (103/156)
-Bobrovsky; only as a Flyer 45.0% (9/20) -- this is the worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 10 attempts
-Boucher; as a Flyer 55.5% (15/27), as a non-Flyer 53.8%(7/13)
-Biron; as a Flyer 51.4% (19/37), as a non-Flyer 60% (18/30) -- at 55.2% all time, Biron is second worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 50 attempts
-Emery; as a Flyer 77.8% (7/9), as a non-Flyer 55.8% (24/43)
-Nittymaki; as a Flyer 67.6% (46/68), 81.5% as a non-Flyer (22/27)
Those individual numbers show that, for the most part, the Flyers simply employ goalies who are awful at shootouts. Bryzgalov's awful numbers this year are just another indication of how terrible a year he is having. Say what you will about being victimized by deflections this year, or adjusting to a new defensive system--the shootout eliminates all of those variables. He is simply playing very poorly right now.
And I'll say it again---it is simply a miracle the Flyers won a playoff spot 2 years ago by winning a shootout against the Rangers on the last day of the season. For point of comparison, Henrik Lundqvist, is the all time leader in shootout wins with 39, and has a 76.4% save percentage.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
The Goalie Options
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Division Clinched
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Stumbling to the Finish
Monday, February 7, 2011
A case of the mondays
Several sources tell CSNPhilly.com that the Flyers are offering a three and four-year contract worth between $9 million and $12 million, depending upon length.
At least one prominent executive in the Flyers organization believes the 27-year-old right wing won’t get a better deal in unrestricted free agency this July than what the Flyers are offering.
Bill Zito, the agent for Leino, said he remains optimistic that an agreement will be reached before free agency. Zito would not comment on the two proposals or why his client hasn’t accepted one yet.
Others believe Zito wants to wait out the season and see how Leino’s numbers stack up against other players in free agency, and what his overall impact was on the Flyers.
Today, incidentally, is the one-year anniversary of Leino becoming a Flyer.
Leino said he remains optimistic on re-signing. On Friday, Leino said no formal offer has been presented to him.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Emery?
Our daily update on Ray Emery's future presents a challenge for the veteran goalie.
Emery, admittedly, needs conditioning time in the American Hockey League. The problem is, if he negotiates and accepts a one-way contract, his conditioning stint can't be longer than two weeks without having to go through waivers.
If Emery agrees to a two-way contract, because of his age and experience, he would also have to clear waivers to remain with the team he originally signed with.
Emery needs to decide whether he can pull his game together in the AHL with a 2 week stint, or face the risk of being claimed by another NHL team.
The possibility of Emery signing with the Flyers is a tough one to measure up.
First of all, no, I would not have predicted the Flyers would make much of a play for him. Second, I think the Flyers are willing to go with Bobby Boucher into the playoffs, but are nervous about it.
The risk of signing Emery depends on your perspective. On one hand, he is high risk because questions about his volatile personality were never entirely put to rest, and he hasn't played in a year because of a career threatening injury. On the other hand, he is low risk for the Flyers because he will sign for a low amount that can be fit under the cap without making other moves, and can be stashed in the AHL.
Dreger provides good info about Emery's waiver wire exposure. If the Flyers could've signed Emery on a two-way contract, and kept him in the AHL indefinitely with no waivers complications, the signing would have been very low risk. Even as it is, if I were the Flyers, I wouldn't let the chances of him being claimed on waivers prevent you from even trying to make a move that would help the team. I guess you could make the point that it hurts the confidence of Bobby Boucher if the Flyers publicly try to get another goalie but then are 'stuck' with the guys they have, but I don't buy that (Boucher's had plenty of ups and downs in his career, and Bob seems level-headed).
I'd peg the chances of Emery signing with the Flyers low, but realistic. If they can sign him as an insurance policy with no guarantees of him seeing NHL time, there may not be much harm in signing him. In the somewhat unlikely case that he is 100% physically and mentally, I think he offers the Flyers more in net than either Boucher or Bob. If he doesn't perform in the AHL, the Flyers just never call him up the NHL. Given that Emery is still in "comeback" mode, I think he is prepared for that possibility to be in the mix for a Stanley Cup contender.
Of course Michael Leighton is also somewhat of an insurance policy. He is currently 2-7 on a dreadful Phantoms team with a .912 save percentage (for point of comparison, Johan Backlund is 6-12 with an .883 save percentage).
I think we'll see one way or the other by Monday.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Bracing for the stretch run
Veteran goaltender Ray Emery will be ready to return within the week. Emery's agent, JP Barry says there are three NHL teams with interest and after some fine tuning this week, expects Emery will be ready to consider offers and a temporary assignment to an AHL team. Emery has spent months rehabilitating a rebuilt hip. Unlike Evgeni Nabokov, Emery will not have to clear waivers as he did not play in Europe or have an existing contract at any point this season.
At least three NHL teams have expressed interest in goaltender Ray Emery.
Sources have confirmed both the Anaheim Ducks and Philadelphia Flyers are in the mix as two of the three teams, however neither team is at a point where they're prepared to make an offer to sign the unrestricted free agent. Although, the expectation is teams will make their move on Emery within the next 48 hours.
Former Ottawa Senators goalie coach, Eli Wilson has been working with Emery, focusing on the technical side of his game following extensive hip surgery.
This morning, Wilson proclaimed his client is good to go, "he's ready now!"
Emery fully expects to start his comeback in the American Hockey League which may be enticing for teams willing to take a chance, while looking to add goaltending depth to their organization.
"Ray feels great and wants to be playing next week. We are now exploring all possibilities and will have to make a decision relatively soon," said Emery's agent, JP Barry.
I shall make no further comment and leave it at that.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Flyers reunion
Emery's comeback
An update on a story I wrote earlier this season on the amazing comeback attempt of Ray Emery. His four-month rehab stint is nearly complete, his agent J.P. Barry told ESPN.com Friday. Barry said Emery is very close to getting the green light to return. What appears likely is a return to the AHL at first to prove himself. Guess who's been pelting him with shots lately to get him ready? None other than Eric Lindros.