Friday, February 3, 2012

JVR's Development

Until the Flyers complete a trade for a defensemen, JVR's name and trade value is going to be thrown around a lot. 

JVR's reputation now in the NHL is still mostly based on his draft status and potential.  His ceiling as a player is VERY high (see playoffs last year), but simply brief flashes isn't good enough for NHL stardom.  Of course this is a common issue with young players, and moreso with "power forwards." 

I think it's fair to say, without detailed analysis, that the Flyers expected more from JVR this season than what he has shown.  I don't blame him for being injured right now, but even before injury issues he was not very impressive.  Should the Flyers be concerned?  Below is a graph of young "power forwards" in the NHL today and their development.

As you can see, JVR isn't the worst of the bunch,  but he's not very impressive.  This season or next is really the expected breakout time.  Notably Kesler and LeClair (who Flyers fans love to bring up about power forwards) were producing less at this age.  That said, it's great that LeClair exploded at age 25, but is there any Flyers fan around that wouldn't mind if JVR remained a 45-50 point player for another 2 years?  Yeah right. 

The point of the matter is that JVR's NHL point production is developing at a so-so rate.  I don't think the Flyers should "give up" on him and cheaply trade him away, but JVR's rise to top line, all star player is far from guaranteed.   Unless his progression jumps, he is in the company of Kesler, Horton, and Backes, but not with Ryan, Perry, Getzlaf and Staal.  I think the Flyers should strongly consider offers that may come in for JVR.

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