Friday, April 27, 2012

Finally, an Opponent

After dispatching the Flyer's archrival of the moment, the Flyers will now face their chief rival from about 1995-2005, the New Jersey Devils.

This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey.  Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.

The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature.  The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.

The Flyers largely need to forget the last series.  It was a wide-open series of passion.  This series will not be.  The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey.  Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.


Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage.  Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required.  Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).

-Health will be a major issue.  Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair.  Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status.  Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.

-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
  -10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season.  3-0 Flyers.
  -11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout.  The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
  -1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
  -2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0.  The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable.  6-4 Devils.
  -3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall.  4-1 Devils.
  -3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.

-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts.  All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.

-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.

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