The day is upon us. Clearly the series to watch across the league, this series has everything going for it to make it a fun watch; geographical rivals, short term and long term bad blood, coaches yelling on the benches, players sparring in the press, recent playoff history, the two highest scoring offenses in the league....
The Pens are no doubt the favorite for this series, and I'm sure many will be picking them to win the East based on their accomplishments this season, largely without Crosby in the lineup. Still, there is no way I could pick the Penguins in the series. I have to say the Flyers in 7, but really this series should be very close.
Things to watch:
-The Flyers' horrendous starts. The Flyers have been tied or trailing at the 10 minute mark in 51 out of the last 55 games. It's a stat that sounds like it can't possibly be right. Simply going back to March 1, a stretch that includes Bryzgalov's shutout streak, and the Flyers have been outscored 10-2 in the opening 10 minutes of games. Fortunately for them, no one has been able to hold their offense down.
Getting more specific, let's assume the Flyers have bad starts--the Flyers have .357 winning percentage when trailing after 1, 7th in the league. The Penguins have a .706 winning percentage when leading after 1 period, 19th in the league. Ironically, it is the Penguins who have the best winning percentage in the league when trailing after the first and/or second period.
Okay, too many numbers in the previous paragraph. The long story short, scoring first won't matter much this series. The Pens and Flyers are #1 and #2 respectively in the league in winning percentage when conceding the first goal of the game. (They are 9th and 7th respectively in winning percentage when scoring first)
-The Flyers' terrible day game record. I don't have the numbers, but the Flyers were atrocious in afternoon games this season, as their slow starts were even worse in these games. Game 3 will be a day game, and game 6 may also be a day game. The Flyers don't want to lose 2 in Pittsburgh then face a must win game 3 on Sunday afternoon.
-Bryzgalov's health. Is he 100%? Even if he is, can he get his March mojo back, when he was the best goalie in the league? Fleury should be largely reliable for the Pens, but Bryzgalov is tougher to predict. For now, I will just assume near-March form for Bryzgalov.
-Protecting the crease. When the Flyers are struggling, you see them conceding a lot of tap in goals on cross-crease passes and the like. They're not all-of-a-sudden going to protect the crease like the Rangers, against whom you can't score a goal without navigating a maze of collapsing defenders, but the Flyers can't get over-anxious on offense and leave lanes wide open around their own net.
-Cooter vs Malkin. Flyers fans have to hope the 19-year old is up to the task of playing against the presumptive MVP this season. Malkin will get his points, especially on the PP, but limiting his chances even strength and on the rush will be key. Grossmann's health will also be a big factor here. Watch for the Malkin cheapshots (slashing, sucker punches, elbows, slewfoots) as soon as he is challenged physically.
-The Flyers' 3rd defensive pair. It looks like the Flyers may be throwing out Bourdon and Lilja as the thrid pair in game 1. That makes me nervous, but with Meszaros out and Kubina struggling, the Flyers will be relying on the rookie and the slow veteran. Neither play is terribly fleet afoot, and a Timonen injury (thus raising these guys' minutes) would be disastrous for the Flyers.
-Briere's playoff form. It sounds like Briere is healthy, but he had a poor regular season. He has been a playoff hero though, especially last year. It might be too much to ask though for him to suddenly turn it on this year.
-The Penguins' diving. Crosby and Letang will be selling penalties, flopping and throwing their head around. Will they get the calls? Will this frustrate the Flyers?
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