The first thing to do is throw out the official NHL seedings. Not only do they jack up division winners, but a team's prowess in 4v4 OTs and shootouts is worthless. With that in mind, I adjust the standings so that all games are simply declared ties if tied at the end of regulation. This produces the following adjusted standings.
With that in mind....
Eastern Conference:
-Rangers (#2) vs Sens (#8), Rangers in 5
The Rangers have been rock solid all year. I can't see them slipping up against an overachieving Sens team.
-Bruins (#4) vs Caps (#7), Bruins in 5
The Bruins have lost their form that saw them brutalizing opponents last year in the playoffs and at the beginning of this season. Still, I see the Caps as a broken team this year. Career lows for Ovechkin, Backstrom not 100%, Vokoun out and Neuvirth questionable. The Caps are not going anywhere.
-Panthers (#5) vs Devils (#6), Devils in 7
In the NHL, every team with a positive goal differential made the playoffs. The only two teams to make the playoffs with a negative goal differential were the Caps and the Panthers--the Panthers had a whopping -24 goal differential One year removed from a last place finish, are they the worst team in the playoffs? Probably. The Devils aren't a juggernaut either though. Things could be interesting.
-Pens (#1) vs Flyers (#3)
Stay tuned...
Western Conference:
-Canucks (#3) vs Kings (#7), Canucks in 7
I'm really not sure what to make of the Canucks this year, after their huge season last year. Kesler and the twins' production is way off, and Daniel may be out with a concussion anyway. The Kings had a very tough time scoring goals this year--29th in the NHL. They won't find many holes on Vancouver, the #1 defense in the NHL. This series will be a real slog. Looks like a long series to me.
-Blues (#1) vs Sharks (#8), Blues in 6
For a long time this season it looked like the Sharks were going to miss the playoffs. Long time regular season standout/playoff disappointment trying to flip the script? Probably not. I suspect the Blues will not be making a long run this post-season, but they should have enough to top a team heading in the wrong direction.
-Coyotes (#6) vs Hawks (#5), Hawks in 7
The Coyotes are the classic overachieving team this year, and Mike Smith had an amazing season in net. A high team save percentage usually bodes well for the playoffs. The Hawks on the other hand are always so dangerous, though nowhere near as complete a team as the Cup champs two years ago. A lot could be riding on Jonathan Toews's health. Both teams finished the season very strongly.
-Predators (#2) vs Wings (#4), Preds in 6
Like the Flyers/Pens in the East, this is the blockbuster matchup in the West. The Wings finished the season ice cold on offense. There's really no clear way to pick between these two, so I'm going with Nashville.
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