What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Missing Matt Carle

The Flyers had another sour loss the other night.  Now I will raise my hand as one of the people seeing improvement under Berube.  Their only win was not a great performance in my opinion, and while they have lost 3 in a row, they have all been credible performances with the team notably much better at 5-on-5.  Of course there are still lots to work on such as terrible special teams (compounded by taking a ton of minor penalties), 3rd period swoons...

I have faith that those things will improve, but one also has to look at the roster and identify its shortcomings. It is easy for anyone to immediately identify that the team hasn't replaced Chris Pronger, in skills or leadership, but no one mentions Matt Carle anymore.

I probably fall into the group that didn't appreciate Carle enough when he was here, and I was ready to say good riddance at his current price of $5.5m, but I have to admit his absence is really hurting.  Seeing Keith Yandle weave around the ice with the puck the other night reminded me of this, as he and Carle have very similar skill sets.  Yandle puts the puck in the net more often with a much better shot, but the puck carrying and skating is similar.

The Flyers brought in Streit, with all his offensive talents, but no expects the smaller, older Streit, to play the 23+ minutes Carle used to play.  This means the Flyers are still without a take-charge, high-minutes, puck carrying defensemen or can control the game tempo.

Holmgren is not an idiot.  He knows the Flyers defense is inadequate, and that's why he's tried to acquire Ryan Suter and Shea Weber recently.  Either way, they're not here, and something needs to be done.  There is no easy path for Holmgren that I know about, but he needs to get creative in how he can change the chemistry of the Flyers' defensive group.

A Familiar Story

Another season, a familiar pattern of events.  The Flyers lost 3-1 in their opener to the Leafs, and themes of last season begin immediately this year.

First, I'll start with the positives.  Those were good debuts from Lecavalier and Streit.  I can see Streit getting a lot of points this season, and Lecavalier created a lot of chances and the only goal.  Also, Mason looked pretty good, and could not be faulted on any goal (though I do wonder if he could've done better directing the rebounds on the initial shot before the Leafs put in the rebounds for their 1st and 3rd goals).  Overall, lots of pressure from the Flyers the first 30 minutes.

Now the bad, and unfortunately none of this is new.  For all the pressure the Flyers were sustaining, only one goal.  Now Bernier played an excellent game for the Leafs, no doubt about that, but the Flyers also didn't really break down the defense.  They just had better legs at the start against a team that played an emotional game last night.  Of course, the Flyers have never been able to sustain that type of control for 60 minutes.  Once that push faded, the Flyers chances and puck possession really dried up.  And once ahead in the 3rd, the Leafs completely smothered the Flyers with vastly superior puck support and control.  The result at the end of the day was the Flyers being outscored 2-0 at 5-on-5 (the Flyers were 25th in the league in this category last year), and the Flyers came away with 0 points in a game that was tied after 2 periods (they were also awful in this category last year).

It's just one game, and the Leafs could be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but it is discouraging to see last season's problems immediately rear their head.

It Begins

I guess it's time to get off my ass and write something here, being that the season starts tonight.  Woohoo!

I'm still firmly in wait and see mode, but I will say that I see this year's Flyers team as a borderline playoff team.  I'd put the chances of them making the playoffs at a little below 50%.  This partly has to do with a horrific preseason, but moreso because I'm reading it together with last season.  Hardcore Mostly Flyers readers will recall this post of mine, and my opinions really haven't changed since this time.

I am very worried about the Flyers ability to score at 5-on-5.  The Flyers just don't attack with efficiency and purpose.  Whether it's coaching, motivation, or talent, the Flyers often look apathetic and aimless.

There are tangible reasons I can say to myself why it should be better this year.  Lecavalier has 61 even strength points over the last 2 years, while Briere only 42 during that time.  Hartnell is in the best shape of his life after being injured and unprepared last season.  Brayden Schenn (who shall hereafter be referred to as "Bo", mainly because I want to have the brothers Bo and Luke on the Flyers roster) and Cooter are a year older.

The defense, however, did not get much of a makeover, and is curiously still bloated with 8 defensemen on the roster.  I've been waiting for a trade on that count for months.  Something's got to give there.  Streit is a PP specialist, but he's been on the second PP unit thus far because the old first unit was so effective last year, and he may not get much more than 3rd pair even strength minutes.  This is a not a sea change for a defense that appeared ill-equipped last season.

While the goalie tandem of Mason and Emery should provide the most uncertainty (in an entertaining fashion, for better or worse), the million dollar question is Laviolette's leash.  Can he survive a slow start?  I won't beat a dead horse with my opinion on the matter, but I think Laviolette has more to prove than the players  That's never a good thing.

Okay, now I have all my fretting out of the way.  Let a fun season begin!

Do the Flyers Regret Signing Streit?

The question of the day is, with Lecavalier in the fold, do the Flyers regret their early move to add Streit?

The Flyers have said they did not expect Lecavalier to be bought out, and signing him was a move of opportunity.  Surely when the Flyers made the move to acquire Streit they had an offseason plan laid out that did not include freely picking up a prominent center for $4.5m.  However, had the Flyers known they could add Lecavalier, I suspect they would not have added Streit.

Clearly, the Flyers are trying to move a defensemen now due to lack of cap space.  Coburn could fetch a decent return, but I'm not too keen on the idea of subtracting a top-4 defensemen.  Meszaros, coming off a poor injury-riddled season and a UFA to-be, has little to nil trade value.  It feels like the Flyers are scrambling a bit, basically because they are.

I believe that, with Lecavalier, the Flyers are more willing to move Schenn or Couturier.  Those two had a disappointing season last year as the Flyers second line struggled, but the Flyers had no choice but to rely on those guys on the 2nd and 3rd line and hope for improvement from them.  Therefore, the option of trading them was particularly unappealing for the Flyers.  Now the second line has received a substantial shot in the arm, so while that doesn't degrade the trade value of Schenn or Cooter, they are not as critical to the upcoming season.

Accounting for Lecavalier before making any moves on defense, the Flyers could've made a move for a younger, better all-around defensemen than Streit.  Something like Schenn+Mesz+Read/picks for Yandle?  Or even something better for Pietrangelo?  In such a case, there would be no more talk of trading Coburn, and a second pair of Yandle/Coburn looks much more formidable than a potential pair of Streit/Grossmann.

Of course the Flyers could still make such a trade, but they are awfully tight to the cap to be paying Streit $5.25m to get 3rd pair minutes.

Jumping out in front of the market for an early move is a go-to play for Holmgren (Hartnell/Timonen, Bryzgalov, even re-signing Leighton), but by not letting events unfold and fully capitalizing on opportunities as they come, the Flyers make a different kind of risk.

Streit Agrees to Deal

Yesterday it was widely reported that the Flyers have a deal with Mark Streit for 4x$5.25m.  Holmgren has denied there is any deal to report, but that is presumably because until a trade or buyout occurs, the Flyers don't have the cap space.

Is this a good deal?

Well, I'll start the analysis from this point: my hope for the offseason was to somehow parlay Matt Read into Keith Yandle.  Yandle is an elite puck carrying defensemen.  Great on the PP, skates all over the place, but not necessarily a stalwart defensively.  The last two seasons, he plays about 22 minutes a night in Phoenix and has scored 21 goals and 52 assists to put him among the highest scoring defensemen in the league.  He is 26 years old and has 3 years left at $5.25m.

Streit has a very similar scouting report.  Skates well, carries the puck well, and is good on the PP.  Also a bit weak defensively.  The last 2 season he has played about 23 minutes a night for the Isles, and has scored 13 goals and 61 assists.  He is 35 years old and apparently signed to an identical cap hit.

All things being equal, Yandle would be the preferred option.  He is a little bigger and 9 years younger.  Streit contract will be an "over-35" contract, meaning even if he retires his cap hit stays on the books.  Otherwise, very similar players.

Of course all things are not equal, and Yandle has a high trade cost; Matt Read alone would not be enough to acquire him.  Acquiring Yandle would probably require sacrificing an asset the Flyers really don't want to give up.

So maybe we should feel okay that the Flyers acquired the skillset they needed with no impact to their roster.

Here's a lineup projection presuming Pronger LTIR and Briere buyout:

That lineup needs a top-9 forward, and they don't have much money left to sign one (let's not forget a lack of second line scoring was a major problem last year).  I would not be surprised if the Flyers made significant adjustments to this lineup including buying out Bryz, and trading Read and Mesz to give Gustafsson a top-6 spot.  I'll leave that question for another post though.