Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

The Offseason Plan

THE SETUP

Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.

Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek.  They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around.  Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.


THE ISSUES

-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer.  If the season ended in January, I would say definitely.  He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced.  Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes.  He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.

-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April.  That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up.  The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team.  You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets.  Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years.  So many variables to that though...

-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical.  A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.

-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really.  Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly.  His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city.  Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign.  For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898.  After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season.  He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.


THE PLAN

There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:

-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman.  I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth.  Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.

-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine.  Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.

-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.

-Make an executive order for system adjustments.  I've been beating this drum for a few months.  I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today.  Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach.  Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme.  This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery.  Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have.  Can Lavy make that adjustment?  If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.

Season Review

All playoff exits feel disappointing.  Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series.  The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.

At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run.  They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards.  Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down.  Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.

The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong.  The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to.  Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.

It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers.  That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.

PLAYER REVIEWS

Forwards:
-Giroux.  The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.

-Briere.  A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals.  His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.

-Voracek.  His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out.  He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.

-Hartnell.  A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway.  Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had.  All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.

-Jagr.  54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career.  That qualifies as a success.  Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.

-Schenn.  18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series.  I expect  him to take the next step in his career next year.

-Read.  He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league.  24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations.  Pretty much ideal.

-Simmonds.  Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals.  He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.

-Talbot.  Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for.  A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.

-Couturier.  Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs.  Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game.  What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.

-Wellwood.  Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.

-Rinaldo.  Did all that could be asked of him.  Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers.  He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.

-JVR.  I think JVR had a very disappointing season.  Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries.  Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year.  He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.

-Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

Defense:
-Timonen.  Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year.  Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.

-Meszaros.  Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season.  Then his season was cut short by an injury.  Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.

-Coburn.  Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.

-Grossmann.  The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed.  He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.

-Carle.  The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes.  A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.

-Kubina.  He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too.  Little chance of him returning.

-Pronger.  His season never really started, and his career may be over.  It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.

-Gustafsson.  He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times.  Skilled and smart, but undersized.  It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.

-Bourdon.  Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors.  Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.

-Lilja.  Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs.  Too old and slow to play a significant role.

Goalies:
-Bryzgalov.  Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March.  Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice.  Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help.  Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract.  I am optimistic.

-Bobrovsky.   Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year.  Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.

Penguins Game 5 Review

Okay, so I'm a little late on this one.

Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time.  The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey.  The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.

I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.

Notes:
-Goaltending.  Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%.  Equally awful.

Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury.  His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad.  Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right.  On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely.  This is a major concern for the Flyers.

On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series.  A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.

-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.

-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.

-I despise Malkin.  He is such a puke, and a weasel.  He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping.  Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck.  This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking.  Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.

-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday.  I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion.  The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.

-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward.  Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck.  Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.

Penguins Game 4 Review

Well that didn't go as planned.

I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on.  The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.

Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey.  The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time?  Probably not.  If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice.  Nothing surprises me in this series anymore.  The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.

Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann.  He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury."  This is the first;

My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series.  Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series.  This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head.  Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse.  So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.


This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head.  The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.

If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head.  As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name.  Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?

-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either.  Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.

-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night.  Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot.  If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled.  Nothing in this series is that tidy however.

-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much.  I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.

-How crazy is this series?  The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games.  The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall.  I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.

Defensemen Statistical Performance

Hockey is hard sport to capture in numbers, and defensemen is probably the position that is the most difficult.  People tend to caught up in points, which makes sense, but there are other numbers out there that may be informative.  Below is a table of Flyers defensemen performance this season.

I visually separated Kubina and Grossman because those stat lines largely reflect their time on another team, so it's not apples to apples comparisons.  I also focus on the rates these players accrue stats per minute played.

Some things are obvious--Meszaros shoots a lot, Timonen limits turnovers, Grossman never shoots...etc  There are some interesting tidbits in there though.

-Coburn excels at the giveaway/takeaway balance, but he blocks very few shots and misses the net constantly on his shots.

-Of the Flyers' regulars, Carle has the highest percentage of shots on net, and blocks the most shots.  That is unexpected.

-Kubina and Grossman block more shots than any Flyers defensemen.  That may be inflated by their time away from the Flyers, but it is noteworthy.

-Meszaros and Coburn have the most takeaways, but those two also are the worst shot blockers.  This makes sense with Meszaros' active game, but is surprising with Coburn who plays more passively and does not produce offense.

Still Trading

The Flyers completed another trade yesterday, acquiring Pavel Kubina for the 2nd round pick acquired from Florida for Kris Versteeg (which is a 2012 or 2013 at Florida's discretion), a 2013 4th round pick and Jon Kalinski.  Kalinski is pretty much a throw-in--he performed adequately for the Flyers in the past, but has been surpassed by other players on the Flyers call-up depth chart.

Together the Flyers acquired Pavel Kubina and Niklas Grossman, and traded away FLA's 2012/2013 2nd round pick, LA's 2nd round pick in 2012 (acquired in Richards trade), Minnesota's 3rd round pick in 2013 (acquired in the Powe trade), and a 4th round pick in 2013.

I have previously wrote how Grossman fits the Flyers needs for a defensive defensemen with size that has been needed since Pronger went down, and also how Kubina's skill set matches the Flyers needs.  In many ways, this goes back to what I said in December--that Pronger's absence created defensive and power play holes that would likely need to be filled by multiple new defensemen.

Focusing specifically on Kubina, I like his skill set, but there is an open question if his skills are declining.  I guess we'll find out.

More broadly, the wisdom of trading a handful of draft picks for players that may only be 2 month rentals has to be questioned.  These trades definitely make the Flyers a marginally better team, but not necessarily a contender.  Too often Flyers games this season turn into anarchy on ice.  It makes them a lot of fun to watch, but defensive calamity and backbreaking goals never feel far away.  These trades cannot address deeper issues that have persisted into last season.  Holmgren, it seems, is incapable of holding onto draft picks.

More to Come?
The Flyers name is still being kicked around in rumors for Nash and Nabokov.  I'm not sure how much sense it makes to acquire either player, particularly with the Bryzgalov situation and Nabokov being another rental player for a team that may be staring at a very short playoff run. 

Also, Nash is super expensive, and may not be worth the assets and cap space.  It was widely reported yesterday that the Columbus GM was at the Flyers game yesterday and met with Holmgren for 45 minutes, but I will take Darren Dreger's word for his summary of the situation: "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price."

A JVR+Bobrovsky deal basis isn't too bad, as I do think JVR will never be the player Nash is.  Consider this chart as evidence of that;

This consideration, however has to be weighed against the fact that it's been 3 years since Nash hit the 40 goal mark, and Nash has only hit 70 points once in his career.  I have also previously written that goal scorers tend to be their most productive in their early 20s.  Now I know the obvious counter to this line of thinking is that Nash has been playing with crap players in Columbus and his production will immediately jump elsewhere, but it is very dangerous to expect significantly different production merely by new teammates.  I'm not sure I could bring myself to part with Schenn or Cooter for Nash.

Flyers Trade for Grossman

It figures that, after I lay out 14 trade candidates, the Flyers trade for a defensemen I don't have listed.  It's not the first time I've heard the Flyers connected to Grossman, but I'm not personally familiar with him and I missed his name on the list of pending UFA defensemen.  More or less, the trade was predictable in the Flyers sending away picks for a defensive defensemen (specifically, a 2nd round pick this year and 3rd round pick next year).  Holmgren just can't help himself but trade away picks at the deadline.

As I said, I'm not personally familiar with Grossman, but through the magic of the internet and the written word, I can tell you;
-He is 27 years old, 6'4".
-He will be UFA this offseason, coming off a $1.65x2 contract.  He will be looking for a raise on that.
-He plays 19 minutes a night and on the PK for Dallas, usually paired with an offensive defensemen.  Grossman is the stay-at-home guy on the pair.
-Reliable defensively, but not overly physical.
-Not going to do much with the puck on his stick.
-Scanning youtube, you don't see Grossman making high impact open ice hits, but he's definitely strong grinding guys out into the boards

The expectation is that the Flyers will pair him with Carle, and continue his role as the stay-at-home guy paired with a skating defensemen.  Best case scenario is that Grossman steps right in and Flyers fans may not really notice him.  This is not a bad thing for a defensemen, and he may kick Bourdon to the scratch list.

Early in the day yesterday, the Lightning announced that they asked Kubina for a list of teams to which he would accept a trade and held him out of practice, so it made me wonder about possibilities with the Flyers.  I think Kubina would've brought more the table for the Flyers than Grossman (mainly on the PP), but Kubina is older and would've been more costly in trade price.

As it is, given the Flyers deeply flawed team this year, I am not in favor of giving up significant assets for rentals.  Acquiring Grossman for a 2nd and 3rd round pick isn't giving up too much, but it's not completely insignificant either.  It would make me feel better if the Flyers resign him this offseason so he's more than a 2 month rental.