What's Hot, What's Not

Today I'm going to pretend I'm a 90s supermarket tabloid, and quickly cover many subjects in a peurile hot list.

What's Hot:  Jake Voracek.  Everyone has taken note of his recent points explosion and NHL player of the week award, though he's been the Flyers best player for a few weeks now.  His season reminds me of Hartnell last year; started out pretty rough (0 goals and 2 assists in his first 7 games) and fans called him out before having a torrid stretch for a few games.  Hartnell played that out into a full season of excellence scoring at the rate of a goal every other game the rest of the season.  Similarly, Voracek showed up for the season overweight, and started out with only 3 points in 8 games, but has 18 points in 13 games since.  Voracek has always been a hardworker on the ice during games, but I think there was some perception in Columbus that his off-ice habits weren't the best.  Either way, hopefully this is a true career turning point and Voracek becomes a point a game player, which I wasn't sure would ever happen.

What's Not:  Ilya Bryzgalov.  He started out great, but has been slowly but steadily slipping.  He's played an absurd amount of games, and his game is showing cracks.  He's fighting in there, but he's increasingly sloppy in angles and is leaking stoppable goals.  Too bad the Flyers back-ups don't offer much relief.

What's Hot:  The Flyers first PP unit.  This unit is moving the puck with confidence and scoring goals.  When the Flyers win, it's usually because this unit has come up with key goals.

What's Not:  The Flyers second PP unit.  These guys are still pretty hopeless.

What's Hot:  Brayden Schenn.  I won't say he's been tearing it up with irresistible play, but his 15 points in 14 February games almost matches his 18 for the entirety of last season.  That's progress.

What's Not:  Trading for veterans or rentals.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Flyers this year are not a great team, and they are not a player away from being a cup contender.  This doesn't rule out all trades, but trading youth and picks for veteran rentals is not wise.  Holmgren, apparently, can't help himself from trading away draft picks, and he re-acquired Simon Gagne yesterday for a 4th round pick (a 3rd rounder if Flyers make the playoffs, which I'm sure Holmgren is planning to do).  Mind you, Gagne is a pretty old and fragile 33, only playing 34 games for the Kings last year and has been a healthy scratch their last 4 games.  He's still got speed and smarts, but he doesn't go to scoring areas anymore.  I suspect the Flyers will put him on the 2nd PP unit mentioned above and let him try to snipe a few though.


The trade winds are blowing around the Flyers for sure.  I just hope Homer doesn't lose his head and trade for a rental.  If it's a restructuring trade for a young defensemen, I would give up some quality as it suits both long and short term needs.  If it's trading for an aging UFA to-be to squeeze a little more out of this year's squad, that is misguided.  Briere rumors have started, and that could make sense as he's not been a big regular season performer for the Flyers, but he has been absolutely money in the playoffs, and he's only owed $5 million in real dollars over the next two seasons.  That should interest other teams.  Trading Couturier on the hand (who I'm sure other teams will ask for) will give me shit-fits, although I'll allow an exception if it's for a young defensemen who projects as a top pair guy.

Until then, look for the Flyers to scrape out wins on the backs of Voracek, their PP and Bryzgalov.  If any one of those factors takes the night off, it's probably not going to be a good night for the Flyers.

Flyers Finding Their Niche

I have written that this year's Flyers really aren't all that good a team, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.  They're not contenders, but they are finding their niche as a bubble playoff team.

After a pretty rough start, the Flyers took 7 of 8 points from a 4 game homestand.  The wins were hardly commanding victories, but they scrapped out the wins against other bubble teams.  They followed that up with a humbling loss in Toronto, before a gritty win in Winnipeg.

The lesson learned from this stretch is we've seen how the Flyers have to win games this year.  They don't have the firepower to outscore teams like last year; 4 and 5 goal performances will be rare.  Bryzgalov is playing excellent however, as he is tracking the puck very well, and really battling and recovering better.  The Flyers also are doing more to collapse around the net in ways they desperately needed to last year.

The Flyers can get some wins this year in this fashion, but it's all pretty fragile.  For one, this team is completely dependent on Bryzgalov (hard to believe we're saying that about Bryzgalov after last year, or the Flyers in general, well, ever).  Partially because Bryzgalov has been very good, and partially because the backup goalie situation is so lousy.

It's also fragile because of the youth up front.  Giroux is looking overwhelmed with Hartnell and Jagr out of the lineup.  Recently, Read, Voracek and Schenn have stepped up their play, but who knows how that will keep up.  It will be a struggle all season, but hopefully Hartsy and Mesz will be back relatively soon, which will help.

Speak of Jagr...

Jagr is one of many recently departed Flyers doing very well thus far.  Jagr has become a key piece on offense for Dallas, and is leading the team with 11 points in 13 games.  The Flyers are missing him this year more than I expected.  Also;

-Matt Carle is playing big minutes in TB (which shouldn't be surprising) and already has 2 goals.  The other key departure for the Flyers this year.

-JVR has 8 goals in 13 games, a pretty stark change from the 11 he scored in 43 for the Flyers last year.  Many of these have been of the tap-in variety, finishing off others' plays (he only has 2 assists), but there's nothing wrong with that.  He's playing well and with confidence, but there's no need for Flyers fans to panic about that trade at the moment.

-Similar to JVR, Jeff Carter has 6 goals (and only 1 assist) in 11 games for the offensively challenged Kings.

Put all this together, and you can see all the offense that has gone out the door from Philadelphia.  That kind of goal-hawking from JVR and Carter is certainly a missing ingredient from this year's Flyers roster.

But Don't Panic

The Flyers have obvious needs, which my man Bill Meltzer accurately describes and prioritizes; "1) a puck-moving defenseman who can play 20+ minutes per game, 2) a scoring winger who possesses both good size and a consistent willingness to work in the "greasy" areas of the ice (though I might go a little more towards high-end skill players who snipe, in the mold of Perry or Iginla mentioned below), 3) a backup goaltending upgrade in case of a long-term injury to Ilya Bryzgalov, 4) a fourth-line center who is strong on defensive zone face-offs." http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=49290#.UR0bGqWyD9l

Despite this, it DOES NOT make sense for the Flyers to go chasing down trades.  For one, they are not a contender this year, so trading more youth and picks is a bad idea.  The Flyers have very few high-end prospects, and are generally depleted of prospects outside the NHL from trading away so many picks under Holmgen.  Second, these are tough holes to fill, as evidenced by the Timonen contract signed last week.

Clearly the Flyers looked around and saw Timonen was their only option for a number 1 defensemen next year.  He is old, and isn't the defensemen he used to be, but the Flyers renewed him at a very high cap number (shockingly high at first glance) because they had no other choice.  After accepting that reality, my only regret is that they couldn't get Kimmo to resign for say $4.5m instead of 6.  $1.5m in cap space will make a difference if the Flyers pursue Iginla or Perry as free agents after this season...

The Flyers Are not a Good Team

Let's just get that out of the way.  The 2013 Flyers are not a good team.  They are ill equipped and disorganized, and those things don't spontaneously turn around or respond to a band-aid fix.  The question is, are they a mediocre team or a terrible team?

The Flyers split their games over the weekend, but neither game was all that pretty.  The Flyers loss to the Caps should be sobering--the Caps were 1-5-1 and generally a lifeless team, playing in the second night of back to back games, while the Flyers were coming off a 2 day break.  Somehow the Flyers got outplayed.  A win against Carolina followed, where a 5 goal outburst and 39 saves from Bryzgalov camouflaged a very sloppy performance.

In preparation for these games, Laviolette basically did what I called for in a post last week; he put together a line of Briere-Giroux-Simmonds, and spent their entire practice on Thursday on the power play.  These changes yielded rewards, as Giroux and Briere combined for 5 points this weekend, mostly on a drastically improved PP.  

Even taking these gains into account, I see scant hopes for long term success.  Why?

-The Flyers have no threat on the back-end.  With Carle departed, Meszaros out, and Timonen about to turn 78 38 years old, there is no take-charge puck carrier on the blue line.

-The forward corp is short on skill players or snipers.  Even worse, with Simmonds and Hartnell both injured, they've also lost their 2 best goal scoring power forwards.  Many dreary offensive performances lie ahead.

-B. Schenn and Cooter are not ready.  This team is scary young down the middle, relying on a 21 year old and a 20 year old as their second and third line centers.  There is no margin of error for these guys this season, and they don't appear ready for that burden.  Shades of the disastrous 2006-07 season when 22 year old Carter and Richards weren't ready for similar roles and clocked in with <40 point seasons?

-General disorganization.  The Flyers look disorganized.  They still have coverage breakdowns, and their passing is slow and hesitant.  You almost never see them snap the puck around between players.


The Flyers currently sit 14th out of 15 in the East.  It's not an insurmountable hole for a good team, but the Flyers are not a good team this year.

Raise the Red Flag

I think it's going to be a looooong season for Flyers fans.  The Flyers simply don't look like a very good team, and there is no cavalry on the way.  They have few assets to trade, and Hartnell and Meszaros will not be back any time soon.  Overall, I think Flyers fans need to buckle down for lots of joyless 2-1 hockey games this season, and making the playoffs will be a struggle.

Facts:
-The Flyers have outscored opponents 7-6 in 5-on-5 play this season.  This puts them among the stingiest 5-on-5 teams in the league, but at least it's a positive differential.

-The Flyers have been shorthanded 31 times this season.  That is the second most of anybody in the league.

-The Flyers penalty kill is operating at a pitiful 66.7%.  That is 29th out of 30 teams.

-The Flyers power play is at 13.5%.  That is 24th.

-The Flyers are being outscored 9-4 in the first period.  Three of those goals came against Florida, meaning they've been outscored 9-1 in the first period of all their other games.

Problems:
-Teams are focusing all their attention on Giroux, and he is really struggling because of it.  No one else on the Flyers strikes fear into opponents or creates mismatches.

-No spark from the wings.  Save for Matt Read's outburst against Florida, the Flyers wings have done little to create offense.  They try to score all their goals from the doorstep, as that is the skill set for guys like Knuble and Simmonds.  Still, this is too predictable and easy to defend if no one is stretching the defense.

-The power play is awful.  Just awful.  Confusion, hesitation.  Often times they can't even enter the zone.

Solutions:
-Fix the power play.  Okay, so that is easier said than done, but this should be the predominant project for the coaches.  Spend an unbalance amount of time on it.  Get those zone entries straightened out, which currently look haphazard.  Get Voracek off the point.  If this team is looking for dirty goals from Knuble and Simmonds, get a shooter back there.

-Shoot!  The Flyers pass up countless shooting opportunities for one more pass into the slot.  This relates to the power play and lack of wing play, but when struggling on offense, get the puck to the net!  Even if they don't have natural snipers in the lineup, you've got to try, and stop making it so easy for the defense to collapse in the slot.

-Load up the first line.  The Flyers are going for the balanced approach, but the result is a bunch of mediocre lines and an overwhelmed Giroux.  Take some pressure of Giroux, and put him and Briere on the same line.  Round out the line with Simmonds or Knuble.  I noticed Giroux and Briere were together late in the 3rd last night, but with all the PPs I couldn't tell if that was a one time thing, or if was simply a temporary change while trailing late.

-Stay out of the box.  If your penalty kill sucks, being among the league leaders in times shorthanded is unforgivable.

Out of Sorts

0-3 last night, and 0-3 on the season.  Another pretty ugly loss last night.  The Flyers aren't getting killed or run out of the building in these losses, but they're sloppy and at times it feels futile.  Now some have turned and said "but the Flyers started 0-3 in the last lockout season, and ultimately went to the conference finals!"  The reality is that that Flyers team started 3-7-1, and after back to back 3-0 losses to Ottawa and Florida, two of the worst teams in the league at the time, Clarke traded Mark Recchi.  I doubt Holmgren has any similar tricks up his sleeve to acquire a #1 defensemen along with a player who would score 50 goals three years in a row.

What is the problem?  There are many;

-No chemistry amongst the forwards, and the chances they do get, there's no finish.  No one is shooting with confidence or showing any creativity, other than Giroux.

-Young players who played during the lockout look out of sorts.  Couturier has really struggled, and Read has been pretty invisible.  Schenn has some good moments, but not enough.

-The defense looks haggard.  Grossmann is really laboring, struggling with forecheckers, the puck, and notably getting outskated.  Timonen isn't doing much.  Schenn has been average, Mesz has been pretty good, and Coburn can only do so much himself.

-General disorganization.  Failed coverage on faceoffs has led to goals.  Failed coverage down low has led to goals.  Special teams have been terrible.  The Flyers have also been burned by bad changes.  All this in 3 games.

-Bad bounces.  It's hard to say how much is teams making their own luck, but the first period against the Devils was probably their best this season, yet they trailed 2-0 after it.  Against Buffalo, there were 3 questionable calls in the crease directly leading to goals or potential goals, and all three went in Buffalo's favor.

-Bad first periods.  The first 15 minutes against the Penguins were terrible, leading to a 2-0 hole.  Another slow start in the Buffalo game creating a 1-0 deficit, and another 2-0 hole last night.  Outscored 5-0 in the first period so far this season.


I'm not sure what the remedy is here, as Laviolette did the line shuffling prior to the New Jersey game  Maybe throw in Leighton and see if the team responds?  I think the most important thing right now is to focus on special teams, where they've been outscored 7-1 in just three games.  That is inexcusable.

Subban??

Okay, so another trade rumor post, mainly because they're fun to speculate about.  The Flyers had a lousy opening weekend, and generally look discombobulated, but I'll refrain from comment until they get another game or two in.

As for P.K. Subban, there may be an opportunity here.  Bob McKenzie reports that the sides are still nowhere close on the holdout RFA.  The Habs apparently are offering a shorter term at $2.75m.  No wonder talks are going nowhere.  Undoubtedly, Subban is looking for something in the ballpark of what other highly-rated young RFA defensemen got; Myers - 7x$5.5, Carlson - 6x$3.96, Hedman - 5x$4, Staal - 5x$3.975.  He'll demand at least 4 years and $4 million.

As for Subban's game, I think he's a very talented player.  I remember the first time I saw him play his rookie year against the Flyers, I didn't know who he was, and I thought to myself, "woah, who is that guy for Montreal!?"  Fast, aggressive, skilled, physical; a very exciting player.  He's been pretty productive in his short NHL career, but he has rubbed some the wrong way with disrespectful behavior, including a notable spat with Mike Richards.  With guys like this, you take the good with the bad.  If you believe that his attitude is an issue, that just lessens what you pay him (or for him), but shouldn't exclude him from consideration.

Even with Montreal getting nowhere on contract talks, he will be very difficult to pry away.  Quite frankly, the Flyers have very few assets to trade, and Montreal probably would insist on getting Schenn or Couturier.   The Flyers current roster needs Schenn, and I personally think Couturier is the Flyers best prospect since Lindros.  Similar to their pursuit of Weber, I'd continue to draw the line at including Schenn or Cooter in a trade.  After you remove those two guys, you're looking at an ad hoc package of high draft picks and prospects.  Would Montreal have any interest in Laughton of Gostisbehere?  They are the only 2 Flyers prospects of note, and even then they're not exactly hot properties.

The Flyers usually sniff around any time a talented player becomes available, and I would certainly see if an opportunistic deal could be made.  I think it's all a long shot, as Montreal doesn't really want to trade him and his contract demands are uncertain, but I think his abilities are exciting enough to earn a look.  He'd be a real shot in the arm to the Flyers defense corps, no doubt.

And We're Back...

Tomorrow, it's finally back to hockey.  It should be a pretty fun home opener against the Pens.  The Pens of course are coming off their first round loss to the Flyers last year, in which their contempt for the Flyers caused them to completely lose their nerve.  30 goals against in 6 games was the result.  Remarkably, this will be the Pens 8th straight game against the Flyers, with no other opponents in between.

But enough about the Pens.  The Flyers won't have any time to get in game shape, as its trial by fire with an incredibly busy schedule, kicking off with 5 games in 8 days.  Fortunately, there is a lot of consistency with last year's roster, and most player's on the roster have been playing in Europe or the minors.  However, with Briere out and Meszaros questionable, the exact lineup is still a work in progress.  It appears the Flyers will start the season with the following:

The big questions on my mind;

-That lineup is scary young down the middle.  At 25, Giroux is the old man.  Cooter, Laughton and Wellwood only have 136 career NHL games between the 3 of them!!  Things will look a little different once Briere comes back (with his 921 games played), but in some ways, he is the least reliable of all of them.

-Will Scott Laughton stick around?  He was hardly a prized draft pick, but he looks to be one of the few players from this year's draft to play in the NHL this year.  After he plays in 5 games, the Flyers must send him back to the juniors, or lose a year on his entry-level contract.  Due the condensed schedule, that is only 8 days.

-How much can be expected from Cooter and Schenner?  They put up solid numbers on a dreadful Phantoms team in the AHL.  That should be expected from top prospects, and basically they were the entire offense for the team.  Cooter is still only 19 however.  I think it's time for Schenn to live up to his billing from the last few years.  I recall that I thought he was the Flyers's best player in game 1 versus Pitt last year, until Asham ran him and slowed him down.

-Who will be the 6th defensemen?  Right now it's newly signed Kurtis Foster, who looked to be having a promising career until it was derailed by injuries over the last few seasons.  I wouldn't mind seeing the big man wind-up on the PP a few times though.  A total x-factor is the possibility of signing Redden.  He's been parked in the AHL the last 2 years due to his enormous contract, but the Rangers have now bought him out and he's free to sign anywhere, likely on a one year deal.  He's 35 now, and I'm not sure how much he has left, but I presume he could fit in on several teams' bottom pair.  I don't know how real the Flyers interest in him may be, but they sniff around everything and there's not much to lose with a one-year deal.  Either way we'll find out today.  If he does sign, he'll battle it out with Foster for the #6 spot, and Gervais will be the 8th defensemen.

-Can Simmonds match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Hartnell match the pace of his career high in goals?  Can Read avoid the sophomore slump?  I'll say yes, probably slightly off, and yes.

-Is Bryzgalov focused and ready?  It's not unusual for big ticket signings to struggle in their first season in a new town.  No doubt, Bryz bungled it in many ways.  Still, I think he can turn it around and be a top goalie again.  He didn't impress as a third wheel in the KHL during the lockout, and it seems he was never really focused there honestly.  It won't all be smooth sailing, but I think he'll have a solid season.  If not, I'm not sure what the Flyers will do.  Lure Tim Thomas out of his sabbatical?

-Will Laviolette tighten things up defensively?  I wrote about this last year, and I was hardly the only one to point it out.  This year, it appears that Snider expects the team to tighten up on defense, and help Bryz more.  I don't know if they're going to do that, but I think it would be a good idea.


The Flyers are saddled in the toughest division and hockey.  The Rangers and Pens are probably the two biggest favorites in the East, and the Devils are coming off a trip to the finals.  Expectations for the Flyers won't be as high, and maybe that's a good thing.  Either way, it'll be interesting...