Monday, March 28, 2011

What changed?

As the Flyers skid to the finish, I was wondering what has really changed here. The only thing that really jumps out at me is that the Briere/Leino line hasn't been nearly as productive recently. I wouldn't say Richards or Carter has been playing great recently, but no worse than earlier this year. Do the numbers bear this out?

Some quick splits, focusing on even strength play only:
Even strength points/game, +/- per game, Pre-allstar game-->March
Leino: .58, +.4 --> .38, -.38
Briere: .74, +.34 --> .54, -.08
Hartnell: .56, +.32 --> .15, -.08

Richards: .58, +.28 --> .46, +.31
Carter: .64, +.36 --> .64, +.55
Giroux: .58, +.22 --> .62, +.31

So focusing only on even strength play, the Flyers' stars are doing pretty much the same recently. The big difference is the Leino line.

I am of the opinion that the Leino line carried this team for the first half of the season, consistently creating far more scoring chances than other lines. I would love to see chances or penalties drawn per line, but alas. The statistics above show that line has been far less productive at even strength recently (look at the +/-) and I don't think most noticed how much the Flyers leaned on that line for success. Kind of shocking what happens when you take it away, even with the other stars holding steady.

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