Buffalo Series Game 7 Review

Last night showed, that when you strip away all the nonsense about Pronger injuries and shocking goaltending, the Flyers are a much better team than the Sabres.  The Flyers jumped all over the Sabres, who almost survived until Miller let in an awful goal.  I guess that would make terrible goals allowed ~9-1 this series?

Outside of Game 1, in which I thought the Sabres did very well to keep the Flyers out of dangerous scoring areas, the Sabres haven't been able to slow down the Flyers attack.  This series went seven games based another shutout win on the back of Miller, and the worst goaltending you will see this time of year.

The one other big difference last night was blocked shots.  I don't have the statistics, but through the first 25 minutes of the game the Flyers blocked a ton of shots, protecting Boucher.  That is the kind of effort they will have to replicate against stronger competition.

Observations and other deep thoughts:

-I've ragged on Coburn a bit, but when push comes to shove he's a trusted defensemen.  He covered a lot of ground in game 6, and has one of the best all-around games among the flyers defensemen.

-Good first period from Richards, driving the net.  Skated less as the game went on.  I still say something is up with him physically, but he will battle and hopefully get healthier.

-Encouraging to see Pronger play meaningful minutes, though the fact the Flyers still dressed Syrvet (only to play 19 seconds) means they're keeping an eye on his still-mending health.  And did I see a note that Pronger went up the tunnel with <1 minute left in the game, and thus missed the handshake?  Not sure on that one, but would be kind of bush league if that's what happened.

-One more goal each for JVR and Briere.  

-Zherdev is trying, but you can tell the way he kind of haphazardly throws himself he has no idea how to throw a check.  Either way, earning his keep in the lineup and at this rate he'll bag a goal or two.

-No, I did not think the Flyers were going to get their first SO last night, even when it was 4-0 in the 3rd.

-I thought the Flyers power play hit a turning point in game 5, and last night took another step, as the Flyers power play looked like a real threat.  Pronger helps, but I also like moving Richards back and JVR to the front.

-Felt like "old' times with the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line, pinning the Sabres in their own end on many shifts.

-Leighton has fallen off the face of the earth apparently, and there was even a rumor (which Holmgren denied--big surprise) that Leighton had gone AWOL from the team after being pulled from game 6.  Not much makes sense to me.  Leighton has been a good a soldier, so I don't see why he would bolt after being rightfully pulled from game 6.  On the other hand, the Flyers handling on Leighton has been strange, sending to the minors for all those months, recalling him but not playing him in the regular season, then giving him a playoff start, then being the number 4 goalie the next day?  It's all hard to make sense of.  Either way, his chances of returning to the net these playoffs are basically zero, and we'll leave it at that.

Division Clinched

It was by the skin of their teeth, but the Flyers clinched the division for the first time in 6 years last night.

A playoff atmosphere at the arena last night and a perfect start before the Flyers found themselves down 4-3. I guess the Flyers should just take the win and move on. Very fitting however, that the line of Leino-Briere-Hartnell plus 4 points from Andrei Meszaros carried the day. Those are the guys that have been there doing it all regular season, and it wasn't Richards or Carter or came through with the big plays when the team needed them today.

So now that the Flyers are in the playoffs, the Flyers have about 4 days to answer some questions.

The issues;

-Zherdev. This one's pretty easy--he stays in the lineup. As long as he's not hurting the team with turnovers or bad penalties or the like, the team could use his stick skills and shooting.

-Briere. Seems to be healthy. Thank god.

-Richards & Carter. No injuries this year, time for Carter to be a go-to scorer in the playoffs. It hasn't been a terribly impressive regular season for Richards, but he should turn it up in the playoffs.

-Pronger. No way to really know what's going on with his injury, but I'd very surprised if he doesn't play in game 1 of the playoffs (with significant minutes).

-Power play. Still looking pretty scattershot.

-Goalies. Alas, the million dollar question, as it has been all season.

So, Goalies

All the indications the past few weeks were that Bobrovsky was Laviolette's guy, and he confirmed as much this week. A while back I decided that my preference was Boucher.

I see Bobrovsky and I see a goalie who hasn't figured it out yet. Regardless of what he is capable of long term, right now I see 3 major holes; 1) gets small and scrunchy on long shots, 2) has developed a disturbing tendency to have a gaping five hole when moving laterally on breakaways, and most importantly, 3) still loses track of the puck often and is caught unaware with traffic and when the puck is jammed in around the crease. The way he was pulled yesterday was very ugly for a goalie who is supposed to carry the load in the playoffs. Honestly, it reminds me of 1997, when in the final game of the season, Hextall was pulled after giving up 4 goals, and the team rallied behind Snow paving the way for Snow in the playoffs.

Given my lack of faith in Bobrovsky, is Boucher any better? Maybe, maybe not. I think if Boucher can stay 'quiet' in the crease, he's the better option. He's not really much more than a mediocre NHL goalie, but he should be mostly reliable.

Honestly I kind of wish Leighton had gotten a game, but I suppose Laviolette was trying to give the keys to his guy, and the Flyers had no breathing room to give Leighton a trial game anyway. Truthfully Leighton is just another not-quite-good-enough goalie on the Flyers payroll, but I do think his play the last few months of last season was better than what Boucher and Bobrovsky are providing right now.

Also, for anyone keeping score, Ray Emery was called up by the Ducks last month and finished the season 7-2 with a 926 save percentage. So much for the Emery as a low-risk high-reward signing, but it's hard to blame the Flyers for not carrying 4 NHL goalies in their ranks.

No matter who's in net, the Flyers inability to lock it down (read, the only NHL team without a shutout this year), is likely going to be their doom this year.

Crunch Time

The playoff nominally start in approximately 7 days, but the Flyers may as well already be in the playoffs with their slim 1 point lead on the Pens. Time to get stuff in order, period.

First, after Leighton cleared waivers yesterday, Laviolette took the unusual step (for him) to announce Bobrovsky was starting tonight and will start in the playoffs. Not surprising that Bob is the guy, but Holmgren said he wanted Leighton to play Friday or Saturday, which may not happen now. As I said yesterday, it seems odd to me that the Flyers would expose Leighton to waivers now for him to be an undressed 3rd goalie. Or maybe they had to do it now? Goaltending hasn't really been the problem, but I wouldn't rule out doing something drastic to shake things up if the Flyers continue to slowly sink.

Second, Holmgren apparently laid down law on the team in a private meeting. Per Tim Panaccio:

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Hartnell: “Paul Holmgren can be a scary guy,” said Scott Hartnell. “Especially, when he gives you that look.”

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Peter Laviolette thought Holmgren's message/address to the team was constructive and well-received

tpanotch Tim Panaccio

Flyers say GM HOLMGREN address to them yesterday was a bit scary. Intimidating ...some said

LOL. It's not as simple as yelling and deciding to play harder all of a sudden, but I don't think it could hurt.

Third, there are the injuries. Briere partially practiced yesterday, though his status for tonight is unclear. No signs of Pronger, but you have to think he'll be ready for actual playoff games. Betts is also out.

The time for excuses is over. Time for Richards to get in playoff form. Carter needs to prove he can score in the playoffs. Versteeg needs to find his niche on this team. Can JVR be more of a factor this year?

Leighton!!

Actual news! The Flyers called up Michael Leighton today.

Leighton will have to clear re-entry waivers to re-join the team. The basic facts regarding the Leighton situation:

-He is due to earn $1.6 million next year, and under the terms of re-entry waivers, any team that claims him is only on the hook for half his salary ($800k).

-Any team that claims Leighton cannot play him this season or playoffs however.

-If Leighton is claimed, the Flyers will carry half of his salary on their cap next year ($800k).

So will he be claimed? Leighton cleared waivers a few months ago to get down to the minors, but things have changed since then;

-Leighton's health was still a little unclear at the time

-Any team claiming Leighton would have been claiming him at a salary of $1.6 million, not $800k.

-Leighton has been playing pretty well in the AHL (2 straight shutouts, 8-2 in last 10 games for a terrible team).

-Teams have no need to add a third goalie midseason, but might be looking for a bargain backup for next season.

So what's the end result? Darren Dreger says:

The Flyers have lived without Leighton all season, at half price, based on feedback around the NHL, he's likely getting claimed on re-entry.

I'll just say it's a 50/50 shot he gets claimed. If he is not claimed, Holmgren says he will play this weekend.

The last question is, why now? One game from Leighton is not going to change Bobrovsky's hold on the starting job for the playoffs. Maybe if they had called up Leighton 6 weeks ago he could've stolen the job, but Bobrovsky has been pretty good recently. I guess if I were Brian Boucher I would not be feeling the love right now--it doesn't make sense for the Flyers to expose Leighton to waivers and an empty cap-hit for next season for him to be a third goalie who doesn't dress for games.

Of course the other issue is that the Flyers are in freefall, so it may not matter who's in net. Last night's 5-2 loss to one of the worst teams in the league with crucial points on the line was pathetic. The Flyers look like they've forgotten how to play hockey. I wouldn't simply say it's just plain lack of effort, but they seem to lack purpose and clarity in their play.

It's always been the case with guys like Richards and Pronger that their season is basically going to be judged on their playoff performance, but it's looking like it will be too much to ask to expect a meaningful sudden turnaround for this team before the playoffs start next week.

What changed?

As the Flyers skid to the finish, I was wondering what has really changed here. The only thing that really jumps out at me is that the Briere/Leino line hasn't been nearly as productive recently. I wouldn't say Richards or Carter has been playing great recently, but no worse than earlier this year. Do the numbers bear this out?

Some quick splits, focusing on even strength play only:

Even strength points/game, +/- per game, Pre-allstar game-->March

Leino: .58, +.4 --> .38, -.38

Briere: .74, +.34 --> .54, -.08

Hartnell: .56, +.32 --> .15, -.08

Richards: .58, +.28 --> .46, +.31

Carter: .64, +.36 --> .64, +.55

Giroux: .58, +.22 --> .62, +.31

So focusing only on even strength play, the Flyers' stars are doing pretty much the same recently. The big difference is the Leino line.

I am of the opinion that the Leino line carried this team for the first half of the season, consistently creating far more scoring chances than other lines. I would love to see chances or penalties drawn per line, but alas. The statistics above show that line has been far less productive at even strength recently (look at the +/-) and I don't think most noticed how much the Flyers leaned on that line for success. Kind of shocking what happens when you take it away, even with the other stars holding steady.

Plus/Minus Check-in

Always interesting to see how players are performing in the plus/minus category. All the usual caveats apply (ice time, matchups, roles...blah blah blah).

Current leaders:

Meszaros, +29 (#1 in NHL)

Leino, +23 (#3 overall, #1 forward)

Carle, +20 (#7)

Briere, +17 (#15)

Hartnell, +17 (#15)

In the basement:

Carcillo, -7 (26gp)

Bartulis, -4 (12gp)

Powe, -1

First of all, when you're the number 1 team in the NHL, everybody has a pretty good plus/minus rating.

Two things jump out from the leaders; 1) Meszaros is playing really outstanding. Part of that is helped by playing on the third pair before Pronger got hurt, and thus being matched up against the opposition's third line. Still, his numbers have gone up since seeing increased ice time with Pronger out, and #1 in the NHL is #1 in the NHL, period.

The second thing that jumps out is all the members of the Briere line, with Leino leading the way. Anyone who's been paying attention knows the Briere line has been the best and most consistent line for the Flyers this year. Leino being several points ahead than his linemates also underlines his excellent play this year, and that he's also the best defensive forward on that line.

Carle's performance also demands praise. That plus/minus is way up there, and notably higher than his partner's (Pronger at +7).

At the other end, Carcillo and Bartulis stand out. I would be worried if Bartulis sees much playing time come the playoffs, and Carcillo is not doing anything to help his slim chances of resigning. I wouldn't worry too much about Powe, because the whole 4th line has pretty low numbers, and he's just a bit behind them.

Leighton Clears

As most expected, Leighton cleared waivers today. There was some reasonable speculation that the Isles would take him after trading Roloson and with DiPietro picking up an injury last night, but I guess when you've already folded the tents on the season, why pick up more journeymen.

Upon additional reflection of the Flyers goalie situation, I'm not sure I fully appreciated Leighton's health status.

"Upon his return, Leighton acknowledged that he is still not 100 percent while experiencing foot numbness stemming from the nerve in his back. He also conceded that he did not expect to be 100 percent at any point this season but thought he could work around that."

That's a little eye-opening. Leighton had a hard enough time getting by at 100%. Nagging injuries are enough to push a borderline player over the edge.

Holmgren can't be happy either. There's been some question about how much Leighton knew and didn't tell the Flyers about his injuries when he signed this summer, and Holmgren would be understandably bitter right now about the subject. I wouldn't say Holmgren's acting out of spite, but that history's not doing Leighton any favors right now.

Leighton can still re-emerge to the big team, but three things have to happen:

1) Boucher's play must fall off.

This is likely. As good as he's playing, Boucher is absurdly streaky. Look back to 03-04--Boucher is unprotected in the waiver draft, barely plays the first two months of the season because the team deems that he needs to work out things with the goalie coach, then in January he sets the NHL record with 5 consecutive shutouts. Anyway, he's been in the league for 11 years and with 6 teams, I think what he is (and isn't) is pretty well established by now.

2) Bobrovsky doesn't regain his early season form.

This could go either way. Bobrovsky's attitude and abilities are definitely encouraging. However, going into the playoffs you'd prefer adjectives like "confidence-inspiring" or "solid". I'd be very nervous if he is the guy--he just doesn't seem ready yet and is too prone to yielding the deflating goal.

3) Leighton has to show his stuff in the AHL

This might be the most unlikely step giving his injury concerns. He needs to be a standout on a bad team. Just not sure he's ready to do that.

The door is still open for Leighton to be back, but he's gonna have to earn it. Either way, I am pretty wary of the Flyers goalie situation this season. Not that there's much they can do about it at this point.

Leighton Waived

This caught me by surprise. The breaking news of the day is that Michael Leighton has been waived.

I thought the Flyers would roll with 3 goalies for another week or two, but not so fast.

Leighton got the win in his first game back, though he was not good. Of course letting in a no-angle shot 2.5 minutes in didn't ease Flyers fans' memories of the Stanley Cup winning goal.

It is tempting to see this and have an initial reaction that the Flyers are dumping him and going with Boucher and Bobrovsky. After taking a deep breath, the following is more likely;

1) Leighton will be unclaimed and try to find his stride in the AHL as part of the Flyers organization.

2) The Flyers are going to ride Boucher (aka Mr. Streaky) as long as he's playing well. Personally I don't think that's going to be much longer, but you never know.

3) The Flyers don't want to send Bobrovsky down.

The Flyers overall goalie situation is not much clearer now. Don't be surprised to see Leighton called back up if Boucher and Bobrovsky struggle and Leighton plays well down on the farm. This definitely isn't good news for Mr. Leighton, but I don't think his days with the Flyers are over just yet.

As another aside, let me also say that I don't see Boucher or Leighton having any trade value at any point this season. If the Flyers don't want three goalies, it means someone is going to the minors and nothing is coming back to the Flyers.

Other searing insights:

-JVR is getting scoring chances more consistently, and is scoring some garbage goals. I didn't necessarily see him as that type of player giving his skating and stickhandling, but maybe that's where his NHL future lies? His career could still go either way, but I couldn't help but notice he was on the ice in the final minute as the Flyers clung to their one goal lead against the Wings. That may be a better sign than the goals (and all the posts he's been hitting).

-The lines are back to status quo. I wouldn't have minded seeing them mixed up a little longer, but the Hartnell-Briere-Leino line is maximizing the output of each of those three. Not sure what is best for Richards, Giroux and Carter though.

-Meszaros trade sure is looking good right now. I've said it before, but Carle's days as a Flyer may be numbered (beyond this season that is).

Back to Work

Like most Americans, it's time for the Flyers to get back to work. They haven't played a game since December 20, and even then, they only "played" the Panthers in the most liberal sense of the word.

Pronger will be out a few more weeks, but what is really going to be interesting in that time is the goalies. Word is Boosh for tonight. Boucher is 4-0 with a .953 save percentage in December, can he keep it up? Will Bobrovsky continue to slip?

And surely we'll see Leighton sooner rather than later. He deserves at least a look.

Return of Leighton is Like Awkward Dinner Guest

Michael Leighton is back playing, and the Flyers successfully appealed to extend his conditioning stint in the AHL. As long as he is stashed in the AHL, his salary does not count against the cap. This arrangement can only last a few games however.

How the Flyers arrive here is kind of strange. I think the Flyers jumped the gun on signing Leighton this offseason, the day before free agency. In many ways Leighton saved the season, but he was not good in the Stanley Cup Finals, and I can't imagine many teams were hoping to pounce on him in free agency. I think the Flyers would've been better off bidding for other goalies, and if that didn't work out, Leighton would likely have still been available. Either way, the Flyers signed him 2 years at $1.55m/year.

Given the free agent goalie market this offseason, that proved to be an overpayment, as more desired goalies went for basically the same price. The Flyers either believed in Leighton, or they misread the market. Given what's happening to Leighton now, I suspect it's the latter. Of course Leighton showing up to camp injured surely must've rubbed management the wrong way.

The Flyers aren't too anxious to have him back on the roster. They can absorb his salary by doing something with Walker, who has yet to dress for any games, or putting Laperriere on LTIR. Still, that leaves the Flyers with 3 goalies, which is never a desirable arrangement.

I suspect one way or another, Leighton will get in a few games, but his leash will be short. Everyone is Bobrovsky crazy right now, even if it's still very early for him. I don't think much of Leighton personally (he's been released or traded for a bag of pucks 6 times, including being waived by the Flyers in 2007--all those teams can't have been wrong), but I think the Flyers owe him at least at look after last season, and Bobrovsky and Boucher are hardly a bulletproof tandem.