Back to Work

After the all-star game weekend, or as I treat it, a weekend without hockey, it's time for the Flyers to get back to work.  No real stories sizzling right now, but a few odds and ends floating around.

-The list of potential defensemen trade acquisitions seems to be shrinking, as Tim Gleason has re-signed with Carolina and will be off the market.  In addition, there are indications that Nashville will trade neither Weber nor Suter.  That puts more pressure on a potential Schenn trade for the Flyers?  That, or they start looking elsewhere.

-Speaking of the Schenn trade, that can't happen until JVR returns from a concussion.  JVR, Briere and Jagr are all close to returning from their injuries, but the exact date of return is unclear.  I wouldn't rush it.

-And of course, the goalie issue.  Apparently Bryz will start tonight after having had some time to clear his head.  Laviolette keeps trotting him out, though Bryz isn't getting any better (maybe even worse).  If the playoffs started today, I would play Bob, but there's still 2+ months for things to sort themselves out.  Laviolette will give him every chance to get right, but if he doesn't improve, it would be foolish to make him the playoff starter and expect his play to magically change when the playoffs begin.

-The Carter trade debacle has hit a new low for Columbus.  Apparently the team is actively looking to trade him, but they want a package similar to what they gave the Flyers this offseason.  That's not going to happen.  Either way, the team sucks and there won't be a happy resolution for any party soon.

Thomas Skips the White House

A surprisingly active topic of discussion has been Tim Thomas's decision to skip the Bruins' White House trip as Stanley Cup champions. 

My first thought about this was, who freaking cares?  On second thought, I think Tim Thomas is making a mistake, but not for the reasons you think.

Tim Thomas's decision to skip the White House visit is NOT racist, disrespectful to the President, unpatriotic, or the actions of an ignorant conservative.  Any accusations that he is somehow motivated out by irrational malice towards Obama are completely unfounded.  Second, if he doesn't want to go, that's his prerogative.  James Harrison has twice decided to skip White House visits (under both Bush and Obama), probably for the dumbest reason I've ever read, but it's no skin off my back.

I think Thomas's decision is a mistake simply because he is putting himself before the team.  He is choosing to politically grandstand rather than be with his teammates.  It makes no difference what viewpoint he is expressing, I just don't like players choosing make political speech over their teammates.

I think this story will blow over very quickly for the press and the Bruins, but there it is.

Sitting Ducks in Shootout

Thankfully, the Flyers have spared their fans the pain of seeing their team feebly lose shootouts much this season.  They've only had 3 this year, and predictably lost all three.  How bad are the Flyers in shootouts?  The numbers are below.  Keep in mind that, leaguewide, goalies make the save 67.4% of the time.

-This year, Bryzgalov is 0/5 in shootouts (dead last in NHL by percentage).  Bobrovsky is 1/3 (51st out of 54 in the NHL, by percentage).

-All time, the Flyers are dead last in shootout wins, with 19 (in 56 games).

-All time, Flyers shooters score 28.7% of the time (25th).  Flyers goalies make the save 56.9% of the time (dead last).

Looking at Bryzgalov's futility this season, it made me wonder if wearing a Flyers uniform somehow makes goalies do terribly.

-Bryzgalov; as a Flyer 0% (0/5), as a non-Flyer 66.0% (103/156)

-Bobrovsky; only as a Flyer 45.0% (9/20) -- this is the worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 10 attempts

-Boucher; as a Flyer 55.5% (15/27), as a non-Flyer 53.8%(7/13)

-Biron; as a Flyer 51.4% (19/37), as a non-Flyer 60% (18/30)  -- at 55.2% all time, Biron is second worst of any individual goalie in the NHL with a minimum of 50 attempts

-Emery; as a Flyer 77.8% (7/9), as a non-Flyer 55.8% (24/43)

-Nittymaki; as a Flyer 67.6% (46/68), 81.5% as a non-Flyer (22/27)

Those individual numbers show that, for the most part, the Flyers simply employ goalies who are awful at shootouts.  Bryzgalov's awful numbers this year are just another indication of how terrible a year he is having.  Say what you will about being victimized by deflections this year, or adjusting to a new defensive system--the shootout eliminates all of those variables.  He is simply playing very poorly right now.

And I'll say it again---it is simply a miracle the Flyers won a playoff spot 2 years ago by winning a shootout against the Rangers on the last day of the season.  For point of comparison, Henrik Lundqvist, is the all time leader in shootout wins with 39, and has a 76.4% save percentage.

JVR for Luke Schenn?

The rumors of a trade based on JVR for Luke Schenn got pretty hot and heavy last week, and then JVR was injured.  You can't trade an injured player, so the trade was at least temporarily delayed.  That talk seems to be starting to heat up again.

On paper, the trade makes a lot of sense.  It is a like-for-like trade:
-both players were very high draft picks; JVR #2 in 2007 and Schenn #5 in 2008
-both players have made some noise in the NHL, with Schenn immediately joining the big club as an 18 year old and JVR turning a lot of heads in the playoffs last year
-both players may be seen as underwhelming in their development, with Schenn's ice time down this year and JVR not building off last year's playoffs
-both players are signed to manageable long term contracts

The Flyers need defensemen, the Leafs need size up front.  The trade is merely teams trying to address an organizational need while holding their salary, youth and long term potential constant.

All that said, the devil will be in details.  Flyers fans expect Schenn and other goodies for JVR, and Leafs fan vice-versa.  A rumor I read yesterday is that it will be the Flyers who have to sweeten the pot to complete the deal, and the Leafs want Matt Read.

No thanks on that one.  If that's the case I walk away.

Overall I am pretty open to trading JVR if the price is right however.  For all his high-end potential, he still isn't a consistent factor in games.  Top line talent doesn't have to score every night, but they have to be at least visible and dangerous.  Will JVR ever be consistent threat?

I really can't personally evaluate Schenn's development to compare, but the optimistic projections say he is a future top pair stay-at-home defensemen.

Neither team will die trying to make this trade .  Burke likes to wheel and deal, and it's been widely reported that the Flyers have lined up Tim Gleason as a back up plan.  This scenario probably has 2 or 3 weeks to play out, and then the teams will move on.

Cooter Goes Streaking

The Carter trade, which looked good on trade day, is looking like an epic win today.  This is mostly due to Sean Couturier.  When getting the #8 pick, you expect to get a good player, but Couturier is exceeding what can be reasonably expected of a #8 pick jumping straight to the NHL.

It was surprising that he fell that far in the draft, as back at the beginning of last season, many scouts projected him to the #1 overall pick.  However, if Flyers fans feel cheated by missing out on Patrick Kane due to bad luck and being stuck with #2 pick in a year when there were few can't miss players available after Kane, they've fallen into good fortune with Cooter.

This is no doubt rigging the stats by running the numbers when Cooter's are inflated by his current goal streak, but the numbers are pretty shocking.

Jeff Carter, 30gp, 10g, 7a, 59:53/goal, 85:33/assist
Sean Couturier, 40gp, 10g, 7a, 49:57/goal, 71:22/assist

Also keep in mind that Carter's ice time generally breaks down as 80% even strength (on a mediocre team with top linemates), 17% power play, 3% shorthanded.  Cooter's is more like 80% even strength (4th line with 2 other rookies), 2% power play, 18% shorthanded.

I don't mean to say Cooter is a better player than Carter right now, but for their production to be even close right now is shocking.  Cooter being more productive with his shorthanded minutes and 4th line teammates than Carter has been with Rick Nash is scandalous.

And why not throw in Voracek's stats too?
44gp, 7g, 20a, 102:51/goal, 36:00/assist

And oh yeah, the Flyers got a 3rd round pick as well for Carter.

Now just sit back and enjoy seeing Cooter playing with more and more assertiveness on offense.  He still doesn't like to carry the puck, but his smarts, passing and shooting are doing just fine right now.

Best trade for the Flyers since Recchi for Desjardins and LeClair?  Still a long ways to go, but the early returns are very good.

Early Defensemen Trade Candidates Rundown

Since Pronger went down, it's been pretty much assumed the Flyers will trade for a defensemen.  The only question was who and when.  With the team continuing to win, the Flyers were in no rush to make a deal.  Now the trade season is beginning to approach, and some chatter is circulating around about who the Flyers may be looking at.  Here's a quick rundown of a few candidates.


Name - Age - Size - Current Pay - Offseason status

-Shea Weber; 26, 6'4", $7.5m, RFA
A Norris candidate, he is the closest the Flyers could come to a like-for-like replacement of Pronger--big, powerful, physical, and a devastating slapshot.  Can the Flyers afford that salary?  Not if Pronger comes back next season.  Weber is in his prime, and he is a guy you build around, not add haphazardly.


-Ryan Suter; 26, 6'1", $3.5m, UFA
A high quality all around defensemen.  I heard one report that he is the Flyers' top target.  Due for a raise next year (expect $5m+).

-Cody Franson; 24, 6'5", $800k, RFA
Still developing as a NHL player, is an offense-oriented defensemen.  He would help the Flyers PP.  Currently playing 16 minutes a night for Toronto, and doesn't play on their PK.

-Luke Schenn; 22, 6'2", $3.6m, signed long term
A physical stay-at-home defensemen.  His ice time is down this season (from ~22 mins to ~16.5), which may indicate the Leafs would be willing to trade him.  His manageable long term deal adds some cost certainty for the Flyers.

-Tim Gleason; 28, 6'0", $2.75m (cap hit), UFA
A solid defensemen, with a little bit of offensive pop.  A name that keeps coming up for the Flyers, presumably because neither his cap hit (this year or next) or his trade price should be too onerous.

To this point, I haven't heard anything about who the Flyers are willing to trade away in return.  In general, Homer seems fond of trading first and second round picks to bolster his roster in midseason.

The only comments I'll make right now is that I really don't want to trade Schenn or Cooter.  I'm very hesitant to trade Voracek too.  JVR I'm open to trading, but JVR is worth more than Gleason or Franson, and probably worth more than Schenn too.

Midseason Player Reviews

I don't like rating players by grades, and there's no use denying every player faces different expectations and different roles.  I'm going to simply assume some degree of subjective expectations and rate players with a stock-rating flavor.

Outperform
-Claude Giroux.  No brainer here.  Last season he looked like a promising young center, but was arguably the 4th most visible center on the team.  With Richards and Carter traded to make room for a goalie, Giroux faced a lot of pressure to be the offensive lynchpin.  He has responded with an MVP caliber season.

-Jaromir Jagr.  Sticking with Giroux's line, no one was sure how Jagr would perform after three season out of the NHL.  50 points?  60 points?  He still couldn't do a point a game, could he?  Apparently yes.  After a slow start, he found his legs and has looked fantastic, and is a key offensive player for the Flyers.  Nagging injuries are the only thing slowing him down now.

-Scott Hartnell.  And now to complete the Giroux line!  Hartnell got off to a very rocky start, missing preseason time due to medical tests, and his place in the lineup was very much at risk with 2 points in 7 games and Simmonds on the top PP unit.  Placing him with Jagr and Giroux has been magic, as every player has looked better since this trio was complete.  Hartnell has 35 points in 34 games since then.

-Matt Read.  On pace for 25+ goals, and an offensive factor every night.  What more could the Flyers want from him?

-Jake Voracek.  His pace of ~50 points isn't going to turn many heads, and is line with his career averages, however I think he is playing better than that.  Didn't start off great, but he is up on his skates attacking the defense every night.  It's not a coincidence that the Flyers go on win streaks when he is playing his best.  Early in the season I talked about Jagr replacing Leino's offensive contribution, but it's actually been Voracek carrying the puck, making plays, contributing what the Flyers would've hoped for from Leino.

-Kimmo Timonen.  He has played big minutes and piled up the points, and looks to produce at a rate not seen since his best years in Nashville.

-Max Talbot.  Has played reliably all over the lineup, and at midseason is already near career highs in goal scoring and points.

-Sean Couturier.  I didn't listen to scouts early this year when they nearly unanimously predicted Cooter would make the big team.  I looked at the roster and though, nah.  Instead, Cooter has simply made it impossible to take him out of the lineup, playing like a veteran.

-Harry Zolneirczyk.  Despite being sent down early in the season, he has come back and looked great on the 4th line--energetic with occasional scoring.  Thumbs up, though to maintain a role like this in the NHL he will have to have an increased role on the PK.

-Zac Rinaldo.  I was pretty skeptical of this wild man coming into the season.  Although he seems targeted by officials, he has general kept it under control, potted a goal here or there, and aggressively sought contact on the ice. 

-Marc-Andre Bourdon.  His ascent to the NHL hasn't really gone like many in the organization may have hoped, but he has played within himself and looked like he belongs in the NHL.

Market Perform
-Danny Briere.  A pretty ho-hum regular season for Briere.  He's been there for some key goals, but hasn't looked consistently dangerous and is on pace for his lowest point totals for a full season as a Flyer (when healthy).  I am giving him somewhat of a pass due to raising his game in the playoffs the last two years, and the expectation that he will do it again.

-Matt Carle.  Carle continues to hum along, playing big minutes and getting decent point totals.  I still say he has the worst shot on the team though, so there's always that to infuriate Flyers fans when he gets so many chances with skating and awareness on the ice. 

-Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds teased Flyers fans early this year and preseason with some offensive skill, however Flyer fans have seen some stone hands since then.  Simmonds is always battling out there, but his offense probably will never be more than occasional and streaky.

-Braydon Coburn.  Quiet but largely steady from Braydon.

-Sergei Bobrovsky.  Bob continues to progress nicely, and currently sports a much better stat line than Bryzgalov.  He probably deserves a chance to get some starts and be given a chance to run with it.

-Andreas Lilja.  Doing exactly what was expected; old and slow, occasionally physical defensemen.

Underperform
-Brayden Schenn.  I don't like putting him here, as when I see him play I see a skilled and intelligent player, and injuries never really gave him a chance.  Still, on January 1, there he was with 0 points and -7 in 8 games.  Hopefully, the second half will treat him better (and the signs are already good).

-James Van Riemsdyk.  Looking at a low 40s point season, and is not visible many nights.  This is even when I commented earlier this season that his points line flatters his play.  He was supposed to progress more than this by this point.

-Andrej Meszaros. The team's best defensemen last year, he struggled early.  His play has improved, but his overall body of work is not what Flyers fans were hoping for.

-Ilya Bryzgalov.  If you've read this blog, or even followed the Flyers at all, do I need to say anything?  Not playing like the top goalie the Flyers signed him to be.  He still can figure it out though.

-Jody Shelley.  Yes, he is still on this team.

No Rating
Chris Pronger, Erik Gustafsson

Bryzgalov Cracking

I have no issue with Bryzgalov having some bad games.  It happens to everyone, especially when adjusting to a new team, city, and system.  For the same reasons, I don't blame a guy for perhaps taking a few wrong steps with the media.  I also can't blame a guy for a weird personality.

Yesterday, however, with Bryzgalov announcing that he is not starting and is happy to be sipping tea on the bench, crosses the line.  It is childish and disrespectful.

Bryzgalov's mega-signing this offseason isn't working out too well at this point.  His stats are not good, and he is dealing with the media pressure of Philadelphia poorly.  In evaluating the situation as a whole, a few things have to be separated out.

Statement 1: It's a bad and significant sign that Bobrovsky was chosen to start the Winter Classic.
WRONG.  The media was implying that the starting goalie for the winter classic was some momentous decision, as if it were the super bowl and you need your starting QB, or a big baseball playoff match and you need your ace on the hill.  For all the media hype, the game was still just a midseason regular season match, and there was no indication Laviolette and Tortorella were treating it as any more than that.  Last post, I said Bob needed a run out of starts.  This is precisely that.

Statement 2:  The Flyers should've named Bob the number one goalie in the offseason and signed a cheap backup.
WRONG.  This is a ridiculous claim in my opinion.  The Flyers needed to do something in the offseason to try and make a more permanent solution in goal.  How can people forget last year's playoffs so quickly, in which it was an utter embarrassment with the Flyers going through 3 goalies in one round, and had to repeatedly pull their starting goalie in the first period.
By any objective measure, the Flyers would've been crazy to anoint Bob their undisputed number this season.  This is not a knock on Bob, who has a promising, if uncertain, NHL future.  The fact is this; he was slated to spend last season in the AHL, but was given a chance due to injuries early in the season and seized the moment.  He played his best hockey in November, but faded.  Laviolette gave him the keys to the team, and nearly every start down the stretch, however Bob finished the season winless in 7 starts, getting pulled in the first period of two must win games.  Bob entered this offseason, as a 23 year old goalie with obvious flaws still in his game (going down too early), with ONE season of experience on a north american rink, who faded in crunch time, and was winless in 6 playoff appearances.  This is the guy to be named the #1 for a team expecting to make a playoff run?  That's ridiculous.


Statement 3: The Bryzgalov contract was a huge mistake.
????  This one is too early to tell.  While the Flyers had to do something in net, they had options other than signing the most expensive goalie out there to a 9 year deal.  Also, the fact that they chose to sign a player to 9-year contract appears to indicate the organization judged and concluded that Bobrovsky was not the long term solution. So far, it has not worked out as the Flyers hoped.  It's way too early to give up on Bryzgalov, and the Flyers have already hitched their wagon to him without any clear way out from the arrangement they've created.  There is years worth of evidence that Bryzgalov is a capable goalie, but his current schtick is getting tired and the team is still looking for an arrangement that works for all parties.