Devils Game 1 Review

It all seemed too predictable.

Predictably, the long layoff exacerbated the Flyers' slow starts, and the Devils had the game's first 10 shots and its first goal.

Predictably, the Flyers slowly took over the game against a fatigued Devils team.

Predictably, Brodeur had some real strong stretches, but doesn't dominate entire games anymore. 

Predictably, it was Danny Briere popping up to score two key goals.

Overall, I think we saw a preview of what this series will look like.  The Devils contained the Flyers at times, denying the Flyers space and stopping attacks before they started.  In time, however, the Flyers asserted their superiority. 

Notes:
-Briere simply turns it up in the playoffs.  He had a terrible regular season, making the success of his season entirely hinge on his playoff performance.  Well now he has 7 goals in 7 playoff games.  As good as he was in the playoffs last year, it took him 8 games to get 7 goals then.  This is all the more impressive considering he finished the season with only 3 goals in his last 34 regular season games.

-Playoff JVR is back.  He revved it up and drove the net a few times.  He didn't finish any of those plays, though he did roof a loose puck with style for one goal.  Laviolette put JVR up with Briere and Voracek, reducing the ice time of Schenn in the process, but it looks like that may be the right call.

-The Flyers were able to spread out their defensemen's ice time much more tonight than at any point of the Pittsburgh series.  The health of Grossman, increased faith in Lilja and Gustafsson, and quite frankly less threatening forward talent on the Devils made this possible.  This may not be a good sign because of what it implies about his health, but Timonen actually had the fewest even strength minutes of any defensemen.

-The Devils had success taking away the Flyers passing outlets and forcing the Flyers defensemen to carry the puck further than they normally would up the ice.  The Devils got their 3rd goal on a chain of events that started this way.

-Wellwood played a very good game, and looked like one of the few Flyers ready to go from the start.  As a member of the checking line with Talbot and Cooter, Wellwood will continue to see more ice time than Schenn, Read or Simmonds.

-My review of Bryzgalov today was a pretty strong start, but could've been better later.  In particular, he was a little slow moving around and reacting, leaving his five-hole open.  Bryzgalov didn't have much to do in the 3rd period, but he should've done better on the Sykora goal and made a momentum preserving stop.

Finally, an Opponent

After dispatching the Flyer's archrival of the moment, the Flyers will now face their chief rival from about 1995-2005, the New Jersey Devils.

This year's Devils aren't the most formidable team, but they are capable of playing some good hockey.  Brodeur is also a legend, but at 39 he is much more vulnerable than he used to be.

The Flyers are capable of winning this series convincingly, but a victory lap would be premature.  The Flyers's bad starts and lack of 60 minute efforts could make this a long series if the Devils stay the course.

The Flyers largely need to forget the last series.  It was a wide-open series of passion.  This series will not be.  The Devils this year allowed the second fewest shots against in the NHL, and were 4th from the bottom in generating their own shots, so prepare for much tighter hockey.  Fortunately for the Flyers, the Devils weren't suffocating when protecting leads either.


Notes:
-The Flyers will not be repeating their 50+% power play percentage.  Better, more reliable 5-on-5 play will be required.  Despite a poor first round performance, the Devils PK was #1 in the league this year in the regular season (the Penguins were #3, FWIW).

-Health will be a major issue.  Grossmann appears ready to go, but Briere, Jagr and Timonen are all in various states of disrepair.  Bryzgalov appears to be healthy, but you also can't forget his injury status.  Lastly, Meszaros is increasing participation in practices, but all estimates peg him joining the series very late, if at all.

-The Flyers played the Devils 6 times this season
  -10/8 - Bryzgalov gets a 20 save shutout in the 2nd game of the season.  3-0 Flyers.
  -11/3 - The Flyers blow a 2-0 lead, losing 4-3 in a shootout.  The Devils outshoot the Flyers 39-23
  -1/21 - The Flyers again take a 2-0 lead, and a couple of PP goals by Hartnell ends in a 4-1 Flyers victory
  -2/4 - The Devils get 3 PP goals and 1 SHG, and chase Bobrovsky from the game leading 6-0.  The Flyers score 4 goals in the third period to make it respectable.  6-4 Devils.
  -3/11 - A 1-1 game early in the 3rd period, the Devils score 3 unanswered goals, outshooting the Flyers 31-19 overall.  4-1 Devils.
  -3/13 - In the back-end of the home-and-home series, the Flyers shut down NJ and Bryzgalov gets a 17 save shutout, 3-0 Flyers.

-FWIW, Bryzgalov's numbers against NJ this year were 3-0, 0.29 GAA, .987 save percentage, 2 shutouts.  All losses fell on Bobrovsky, though Bobrovsky admittedly saw a lot more shots than Bryzgalov in those games.

-I will be interested to see how JVR performs this series, as hopefully his health will have improved significantly in the last week.

Penguins Game 6 Review

Flyers nation can now exhale.

Anxiety was rising, but instead the Flyers turned out their best 60 minutes of the series.  Giroux provided the early boost, and the Flyers circled the wagons and survived the Penguins furious counter-punch.  That would prove to be Penguins' best shot.

I was oddly confident this morning.  Rationally, I should've been very concerned about the Flyers shorthanded defense, and Bryz looking physically hampered, but instead I just thought to myself that there was no way the Flyers would let this series get away from them.  They were going to win this game.  This team has been way too resilient this year, never giving up.  Yes, the Penguins were a more focused team than earlier in the series, but this Flyers team always answers the bell.

I'm already looking forward to the next round, and pulling hard for both Washington and Ottawa to complete their upsets and leave a clear path to the finals for the Flyers.  Either way, it will be great not to have to think about punks like Malkin, Neal and Letang for 6 months.

Notes:
-The Flyers really tightened up defensively.  Bryzgalov faced hardly any clean looks, and didn't have to move laterally nearly as much.  As a result, he looked more comfortable and made all the expected saves.  Also, the Flyers blocked 40 shots today, more than the previous two games combined (and double the 20 they blocked in game 3, their previous series high).

-Gustafsson came in and played like a champ.  His ice time rose from ~12 minutes in game 5 to ~22 in game 6, nearly all at even strength.  That was more than Timonen and Carle at even strength this game.  Timonen actually played less than 7.5 minutes at even strength, and 15 overall.

-After going for 1/3 on the power play today, the Flyers percentage dropped to 57% (12/23) for the series.  The Pens themselves went 31% (9/29), a damn good number in any other reality, but also gave up 3 shorthanded goals.  Mind you, the Pens were one of the best penalty killing teams in the league this year and set a franchise record for PK percentage.

-Crosby was nearly invisible today, and I suspect he is not 100% after getting nailed on the chin by Malkin last game.  Malkin was very good, scoring one, hitting a post, and generally wreaking havoc in the Flyers zone around the net.

Penguins Game 5 Review

Okay, so I'm a little late on this one.

Anyway, we actually had a real hockey game this time.  The nonsense finally stopped, and the teams simply played hockey.  The Flyers started out pretty well, but fell behind in the second period and couldn't squeak out one more goal to come back, though they came pretty close.

I like the Flyers odds in game 6, but this is a real series again.

Notes:
-Goaltending.  Before you say anything about either team getting a goaltending advantage, consider the stats thus far; Bryzgalov, 4.54 GAA, .848%, Fleury, 4.70 GAA, .837%.  Equally awful.

Now that doesn't mean it will necessarily continue that way, and it certainly looks to me like Bryzgalov is being affected by injury.  His chip fracture in his foot may not be fully healed, and there are rumors his hip is also bad.  Either way, he cannot move laterally to the right.  On several plays the last two games when the puck goes that way quickly, he doesn't even try to move that way, and just falls on his back and flails his goal stick futilely.  This is a major concern for the Flyers.

On the other hand, it would be unwarranted to conclude Fleury has turned the corner and will be better the remainder of the series.  A few posts, a few slower whistles, or Danny Briere roofing a rebound as is his specialty, and Fleury gives up 4+ goals that game.

-The Flyers PP is absolutely killing it right now, but no even strength goals since game 3.

-The team scoring first is now 0-5 in this series.

-I despise Malkin.  He is such a puke, and a weasel.  He was pretty quiet on all fronts through the first 3 games, but once he got his first goal of the series, it seemed to get his blood pumping.  Since then, he has headhunted Grossmann with a blind-side headshot, tried to castrate Couturier with his stick, and also blindsided Couturier up high away from the puck.  This has been Malkin's MO for years, and you'll notice he only strikes other players when they are not looking.  Slash, trip, punch, high-hits, and only to players who are distracted and looking the other way.

-Speaking of Grossman, he skated yesterday.  I suppose there's a small chance he could play, though that would be awfully quick after an unofficial concussion.  The Flyers could definitely use his size and shot blocking.

-JVR returned the lineup, but only played 7:31, the least of any forward.  Hopefully he's well enough to play more minutes and carry the puck.  Lilja and Kubina actually played fewer minutes, as obviously Laviolette doesn't trust them right now.

Penguins Game 4 Review

Well that didn't go as planned.

I suppose it was the Flyers turn to wilt as the game went on.  The Flyers took the early lead due on early PPs due to some very tight officiating, and then the Penguins took the game away, capitalizing on an endless stream of penalties.

Aside from that, the Flyers took their foot of the gas pedal tonight, and the Penguins simply played focused hockey.  The question will be, did the Penguins regain control of themselves in time?  Probably not.  If they don't win game 5, what happened tonight is merely an inconsequential blip on the radar.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Penguins back on home ice.  Nothing surprises me in this series anymore.  The Flyers would do well to simply forget the whole game, and dig in for a trip into enemy territory.

Notes:
-A major issue is the health of Grossmann.  He took 2 illegal headshots, and left the game early with an "upper body injury."  This is the first;

My mortal enemy, Malkin has finally emerged this series.  Gets his first goal, and on his next shift throws his first dirty check of the series.  This is a blatant attempt to blindside a player in the head, and is clearly illegal under Rule 48.1, illegal check to the head.  Malkin threw out his shoulder in a completely gratuitous fashion, and there is no excuse.  So intent is Malkin on headhunting, that his lunge to do so caused him to fall down after the hit.
Grossmann may have survived this hit, but then he took another one.


This hit by Kennedy is not as gratuitous, but it also walks the line of illegal high hit to the head.  The NHL puts quite a bit of emphasis on injury sustained, so any claims the Flyers may have for supplementary discipline may be mooted by the fact that neither hit was individually responsible for the injury.

If Grossman flops, or if he is hit by someone other than Malkin, a suspension is likely for a clearly predatory and intentional hit to the head.  As it is, the Flyers may be without their best shutdown defenseman while Malkin skates away without even a minor penalty to his name.  Clearly the officials are still clueless on detecting headshots, as how can you miss a blatant headshot call in a game when you are calling every little ticky-tack penalty otherwise (20 minor penalty calls!)?

-Giroux did not play in the third period last night either.  Hopefully just a precaution in a game that was out of reach.

-Bryzgalov was really fighting the puck last night.  Moving slowly, to have no idea where the puck was after stopping a shot.  If momentum means anything, Fleury got a hold of himself last night, while Bryzgalov got pulled.  Nothing in this series is that tidy however.

-Before the series, I said scoring the first goal, crucial in today's NHL wouldn't matter much.  I was a little off on that one, as scoring the first goal this series has been crucial--the team scoring first is 0-4 in this series.

-How crazy is this series?  The next highest scoring playoff series this year is Detroit v. Nashville, who have combined for 19 goals in 4 games.  The Flyers and Pens have combined for 20 goals in the first period, and 45 overall.  I haven't even looked at the math for penalty minutes either, which is also off the charts.

A Simple Fix for NHL Suspensions

People are pretty irate about this week's Shanabans, and I think it reflects a pretty simple disconnect in the NHL's "supplementary discipline" system.

First let me start by saying I think this year's regime is a big improvement from last season.  The NHL wheel-of-justice was unpredictable and opaque last season.  Under Shanahan this year, that has been greatly improved.

This year the NHL has been doling out justice under a pretty clear test.  There are several factors that dictate a decision on whether a player should be suspended, and for how long:

1) Was the action per se illegal?  Was it a charge, elbow, etc...

2) Does the victim of the play bear any responsibility?  Did he make a last minute move that the checker did not anticipate, worsening the risk on the play?

3) Is the aggressor a repeat offender?

4) Did the victim suffer an injury?

[5) Was either player a "star"?  This is more of an unspoken factor.]

Most of these factors are good.  What is really riling people up is the 4th factor--resulting injury.  There are A LOT of fans that think it shouldn't be a factor at all (myself included).  Even worse, the NHL seems to put quite a bit of weight on this factor when determining suspension length.  As a result, on plays that seemed to lack intent but result in an injury, the NHL hands down significant ban, but on plays that looked ridiculously dirty but resulted in no injury, the punishment is light or non-existent.

The best solutions are the simplest.  Therefore, to improve the system, I say the NHL should merely eliminate or greatly reduce the weight placed on the 4th factor, and a new factor in the test, malicious intent.

Malicious intent is what fans are getting caught-up on in reviewing plays.  The natural reaction of fans is to say "that was so dirty, just a blatant attempt to injure."  It's perverse that fans should, on the one hand, feel relief that their player didn't get hurt, but must resign themselves to fact that the culprit on the other team will be getting off light for the same reason.

I suspect the NHL has resisted using intent in the past because it is inherently subjective.  No player is going to admit after the fact that he was simply looking to hurt somebody.  That should not prevent the NHL from judging intent.  Forgive me for the lawyer-speak, but that is my trade by day, but there are several indicia of intent that the NHL can refer to to judge intent.

Indicia of intent would be things like relation to any valid hockey purpose, history between the players/teams, actions preceding the play, and time and score of game.

Take some recent examples.  Hagelin gets three games because he gets his elbow up on Alfedsson in a tight game, causing injury to one Ottawa's stars.  Under the above test, a 3 game suspension is not unreasonable.  However, decreasing emphasis on the injury to Alfredsson and weighing Hagelin's intent, you get a different result.  Hagelin appears to be making a hockey play, but he illegally got his elbows up.  He has to answer for that, but malicious intent seems to be absent based on the circumstances.  Now we're talking a 1-game suspension.

On the other hand, you have James Neal.  After the game and series is seemingly out of reach, Neal throws a blatantly illegal check on Couturier, which is both interference for being late, and a charge for launching himself to hit Couturier high.  On the ensuing shift, he stalks Giroux and hits him high as well, another illegal check.  Neal was not penalized, and it appears no injuries were picked up.  Neal also scored 40 goals this season and scored 2 nice goals in the same game.  Under the old test, lots of factors are in Neal's favor.  Weighing intent however, his hit on Couturier had no hockey purpose whatsoever, and the fact that he makes another illegal and dangerous check to Giroux just moments later is powerful evidence of intent.  We're waiting for Neal's supplementary discipline ruling today, but it could be anything.  Under my regime, we're talking at least 3 games for his undeniable intent to throw dirty hits.

Judging intent is difficult, but the NHL has to step up.  As the NHL legislates on-the-ice justice out of the game, they are placing upon itself the responsibility to implement an effective system of justice.  Based on the dirty hits thus far in the playoffs, their current system is lacking.  It's okay for the NHL to go through growing pains in the process, but they have to keep moving and evolve the system.  In the old days of street justice, players would make a snap judgment about intent, and immediately do something about it.  There's no sense in denying or minimizing the factor of intent, and if the NHL is already implicitly weighing intent, they sure fooled me.  I think you'd create a system that more effectively polices the players and leaves a lot of fans happier.

Penguins Game 3 Review

"[The Flyers] seem to bring out the worst in me."  

   -Sidney Crosby, 4/2/2012

Turns out that was a bit of an understatement.  Another game, another early Penguins lead, and another collapse by the Penguins.  With each game, the Penguins mental capitulation gets more severe, and today they completely lost their sh*t.

I was a little nervous going into this game, for two reasons.  One, the Flyers were terrible in day games this season, with even worse first periods than usual.  Second, I said after game one that the Pens were being distracted by trying to hit too much and punish the Flyers physically, and I thought being on the road they might tone it down and played more poised hockey.  Neither of those occurred.

The Pens got an early gift goal from Bryzgalov, but then on a PP (for what appeared to be a phantom high sticking call), Giroux made a good play shorthanded, and Fleury put the puck in his own net trying to cover a loose puck.  It was all downhill from there.

As the game wore on, the Penguins became a total embarrassment.  Asham's high crosscheck to Schenn (and punch to the back of the head while Schenn is defenseless and face down on the ice) after Schenn made a perfectly legal check was a disgrace.  Things got worse, as another melee was caused when Crosby was determined to cause trouble, slashing Bryzgalov after he covered the puck, prodding Voracek and hassling Timonen until Giroux finally stepped in and went with him.  Letang beat up Timonen (whom I've never seen fight) then petulantly tried to shoosh the crowd.

Apparently that wasn't enough, as Neal threw 2 dirty hits in the space of a minute after the game was out of reach.  He launched himself at Couturier well after the puck was gone, and quite frankly it would've been an illegal charge even if Cooter still had the puck.  As it was, it was an indefensible hit.  Then he stayed on the ice and hit Giroux in the head with another late hit.  At the ensuing stoppage Crosby was grabbing Hartnell (apparently to keep him away from Neal), and when Hartnell engaged Crosby, Adams starting punching him in the back of the head.  Once the two squared to fight and grappled, Adams starting pulling Hartnell's hair.  What is this?  A lunch time scrap between middle school girls?  Ridiculous.

The NHL would be wise to suspend both Asham and Neal for this nonsense.  For one, their actions merit suspension in any scenario.  Second, the outcome of the series is all but settled, and the NHL should reel it in rather than invite more cheapshots or score-settling in an inconsequential game.

The Penguins should be embarrassed enough by allowing 20 goals in three games to their hated rival, in a series in which they were favored.  I guess that wasn't enough, and they've turned themselves into a farce.  This series was there for the taking for them, with 3-0 and 2-0 leads in the first two games.  The Pens were unable to control their passion and quite frankly lost their cool and their minds trying to prove something, and they psyched themselves out of the series.  Crosby was definitely right with the quote above.

Notes:
-I hope Couturier, Giroux and Schenn are okay after absorbing cheapshots.  Giroux appeared woozy and stumbled after being hit by Neal.

-It shouldn't be lost in the shuffle that Bryzgalov let in 2 terrible goals again today.  He's looking leaky and his 5-hole has been gigantic.  This series is a goalie's nightmare, but this will have to tighten up against the likes of the Rangers and Bruins.

-With 20 goals, the Flyers have scored several more goals than any other series has featured COMBINED between the two teams.

Penguins Game 2 Review

Numb.

That is pretty much I feel.  I had to check the score again this morning to make sure all that stuff really happened last night.  That game had so many amazing, "momentum changing" plays that it was just surreal.  The Bryzgalov save on Letang followed by Flyers SHG, the Pens scoring another goal in the final minute of the first, Couturier scoring with 2.8 secs left, Bryzgalov giving up a bad goal to start the third and Cooter singlehandedly getting it right back, Jagr getting the game winner, topped off by 2 hat tricks.  Ridiculous.

Nothing in this series would surprise me anymore, so I don't want to presumptuous about what's going to happen next.  What is clear though, is that the Penguins are utterly incapable of holding a lead against the Flyers.  This is a carry-over from the regular season.  I also said the first goal wouldn't matter much in this series given the offense capabilities and defensive carelessness of both of these teams, but I sure thought multiple goal leads would matter.  Not so much.  It is hard for me to imagine the Penguins winning 4 of 5 games when no lead is safe.

Notes:
-Did I say something about Giroux being invisible in game 1?  People probably noticed his hat trick and three assists last night.  It felt like November again with Giroux doing it all.

-As good as Giroux was, Cooter was nearly as good.  Matched up against the presumptive MVP of the season, Cooter smoked him.    It's not hyperbole to talk about his future franchise center potential.  Of all the pieces moving in the Richards and Carter deals last summer, Cooter may be the best player of them all.  There is nothing missing from his game.  Skating, passing, a quick accurate shot, size he knows how to use, and off-the-charts awareness.

-Stats:
  -Cooter was the second teenager in NHL history to score a hat trick, with the other coming in 1945.
  -Cooter and Giroux teamed up as first pair to get a hat trick in the same playoff game since 1990.
  -The Flyers trailed 2-0 for the 9th time in their last 14 games.

-Not a great game from Bryz, though he did make a few big stops which is really all you ask for in a game like that.  Let's just enjoy...

-On the same play, what they don't show on that NBC broadcast is one of the worst dives I have even seen a hockey player make.  Kris Letang brings soccer-style "play-acting" to the NHL, as Matt Read bumps him in the arm and Letang throws his head back, screams in "pain", and goes down like a sack of bricks.  Lost in the shuffle of all of last night's madness is the Penguins shameful diving.  Letang and Crosby throw their head back any time anything happens (you might think guys with concussion histories would be a little more careful about the potential whiplash!), and Neal has been guilty of some serious embellishment on two calls this series too.  No one even pointed it out on a broadcast last night, but in typical Penguins fashion, Kunitz breaks his stick with a slash on Coburn's ankle, and seconds later a Penguin flops at the slightest contact and draws a penalty.  Disgraceful.

-27 minutes of ice time for Coburn last night, including 24 at even strength.  That is 5 minutes more than anyone else on the team.

Penguins Game 1 Review

The Flyers main goal this series was winning a game in Pittsburgh, and that mission is already accomplished.  Now, there is no reason they can't take two.

As mentioned yesterday, the Flyers are terrible in the first 10 minutes of games--I almost expect them to give up the first goal, and just hope they don't give up a second.  Yesterday, it was made even worse with that goal in the last minute of the first, which looked to be a real backbreaker.  The Flyers have shown an amazing ability to come back, and the Pens aren't too adept at shutting it down with a lead, but 3-0 is 3-0.

Hopefully the Flyers now have a mental edge.  The Pens dominated the first, and seemed to regain control late in the 2nd after the Flyers got one, but the Pens really wilted down the stretch.  They were frankly a mess in overtime, and I was thinking to myself they were getting very sloppy around their net and one of these loose pucks around there is going to end up in the net.  That outcome didn't take long to materialize.

Going forward, the Flyers should focus on getting the puck deep.  The Pens defense is not strong down low, and chipping it in will also limit the Pens chance to counter, which is their strength.


Other items:
-Bryzgalov played okay.  I was about ready to declare that Fleury outplayed him in game 1, then Fleury gave up a bad goal to Briere.  Either way, Bryzgalov has pretty much seen the worst possible thing happen (down 3 goals early, including an unlucky one), but finished pretty strong, moving confidently.

-Bourdon and Lilja definitely looked like a weak link out there.  Lilja is slow but battled, and Bourdon seemed a little overwhelmed at times.  Then Bourdon picked up an injury.  Maybe Kubina will go back in, though it's believed he is struggling because he is not 100% anyway.  A Kubina-Lilja pairing is kind of scary, because they will be SLOW.

-The legend of Briere rises.  A little bit of luck on each goal, though clearly Briere was piling up the bad luck all year to get some breaks in the playoffs....

-Of course the first Briere goal was offsides.  Tipping the scales on the whole, I don't think the Pens can complain about the officiating.  All 3 of their power plays were completely embellished, and they were running Flyers and got only one penalty for all their late hits.  Also, their third goal came directly after an icing call was waved off for no apparent reason.

-The Pens are definitely targeting Giroux and Timonen with late hits.  Honestly though, if I were the Pens, I would tone down the physical game.  Their physical aggressiveness didn't hurt them directly, but it feels like the Flyers are in their heads and Pens are trying to compensate by pushing them around. 

-A pretty quiet night for the "stars."  Crosby had a nice goal to get things going, but neither he nor Malkin were terribly threatening.  Giroux was even more invisible. 

-Big game from Schenn tonight though, which is great to see.  The kid is stronger on his skates than he looks.

-And I will leave you with a tweet fom Dejan Kovacevic, Penguins beat writer: "If you're looking for reaction from #Pens, forget about it. They bailed like the place was on fire or something."

Pens and Flyers go to War

The day is upon us.  Clearly the series to watch across the league, this series has everything going for it to make it a fun watch; geographical rivals, short term and long term bad blood, coaches yelling on the benches, players sparring in the press, recent playoff history, the two highest scoring offenses in the league....

The Pens are no doubt the favorite for this series, and I'm sure many will be picking them to win the East based on their accomplishments this season, largely without Crosby in the lineup.  Still, there is no way I could pick the Penguins in the series.  I have to say the Flyers in 7, but really this series should be very close.


Things to watch:
-The Flyers' horrendous starts.  The Flyers have been tied or trailing at the 10 minute mark in 51 out of the last 55 games.  It's a stat that sounds like it can't possibly be right.  Simply going back to March 1, a stretch that includes Bryzgalov's shutout streak, and the Flyers have been outscored 10-2 in the opening 10 minutes of games.  Fortunately for them, no one has been able to hold their offense down.

Getting more specific, let's assume the Flyers have bad starts--the Flyers have .357 winning percentage when trailing after 1, 7th in the league.  The Penguins have a .706 winning percentage when leading after 1 period, 19th in the league.  Ironically, it is the Penguins who have the best winning percentage in the league when trailing after the first and/or second period.

Okay, too many numbers in the previous paragraph.  The long story short, scoring first won't matter much this series.  The Pens and Flyers are #1 and #2 respectively in the league in winning percentage when conceding the first goal of the game.  (They are 9th and 7th respectively in winning percentage when scoring first)

-The Flyers' terrible day game record.  I don't have the numbers, but the Flyers were atrocious in afternoon games this season, as their slow starts were even worse in these games.  Game 3 will be a day game, and game 6 may also be a day game.  The Flyers don't want to lose 2 in Pittsburgh then face a must win game 3 on Sunday afternoon.

-Bryzgalov's health.  Is he 100%?  Even if he is, can he get his March mojo back, when he was the best goalie in the league?  Fleury should be largely reliable for the Pens, but Bryzgalov is tougher to predict.  For now, I will just assume near-March form for Bryzgalov.

-Protecting the crease.  When the Flyers are struggling, you see them conceding a lot of tap in goals on cross-crease passes and the like.  They're not all-of-a-sudden going to protect the crease like the Rangers, against whom you can't score a goal without navigating a maze of collapsing defenders, but the Flyers can't get over-anxious on offense and leave lanes wide open around their own net.

-Cooter vs Malkin.  Flyers fans have to hope the 19-year old is up to the task of playing against the presumptive MVP this season.  Malkin will get his points, especially on the PP, but limiting his chances even strength and on the rush will be key.  Grossmann's health will also be a big factor here.  Watch for the Malkin cheapshots (slashing, sucker punches, elbows, slewfoots) as soon as he is challenged physically.

-The Flyers' 3rd defensive pair.  It looks like the Flyers may be throwing out Bourdon and Lilja as the thrid pair in game 1.  That makes me nervous, but with Meszaros out and Kubina struggling, the Flyers will be relying on the rookie and the slow veteran.  Neither play is terribly fleet afoot, and a Timonen injury (thus raising these guys' minutes) would be disastrous for the Flyers.

-Briere's playoff form.  It sounds like Briere is healthy, but he had a poor regular season.  He has been a playoff hero though, especially last year.  It might be too much to ask though for him to suddenly turn it on this year.

-The Penguins' diving.  Crosby and Letang will be selling penalties, flopping and throwing their head around.  Will they get the calls?  Will this frustrate the Flyers?

Playoff Picks

It's the most wonderful time of the year, and I am obligated to make picks.

The first thing to do is throw out the official NHL seedings.  Not only do they jack up division winners, but a team's prowess in 4v4 OTs and shootouts is worthless.  With that in mind, I adjust the standings so that all games are simply declared ties if tied at the end of regulation.  This produces the following adjusted standings.

With that in mind....

Eastern Conference:
-Rangers (#2) vs Sens (#8), Rangers in 5
The Rangers have been rock solid all year.  I can't see them slipping up against an overachieving Sens team.

-Bruins (#4) vs Caps (#7), Bruins in 5
The Bruins have lost their form that saw them brutalizing opponents last year in the playoffs and at the beginning of this season.  Still, I see the Caps as a broken team this year.  Career lows for Ovechkin, Backstrom not 100%, Vokoun out and Neuvirth questionable.  The Caps are not going anywhere.

-Panthers (#5) vs Devils (#6), Devils in 7
In the NHL, every team with a positive goal differential made the playoffs.  The only two teams to make the playoffs with a negative goal differential were the Caps and the Panthers--the Panthers had a whopping -24 goal differential  One year removed from a last place finish, are they the worst team in the playoffs?  Probably.  The Devils aren't a juggernaut either though.  Things could be interesting.

-Pens (#1) vs Flyers (#3)
Stay tuned...

Western Conference:
-Canucks (#3) vs Kings (#7), Canucks in 7
I'm really not sure what to make of the Canucks this year, after their huge season last year.  Kesler and the twins' production is way off, and Daniel may be out with a concussion anyway.  The Kings had a very tough time scoring goals this year--29th in the NHL.  They won't find many holes on Vancouver, the #1 defense in the NHL.  This series will be a real slog.  Looks like a long series to me.

-Blues (#1) vs Sharks (#8), Blues in 6
For a long time this season it looked like the Sharks were going to miss the playoffs.  Long time regular season standout/playoff disappointment trying to flip the script?  Probably not.  I suspect the Blues will not be making a long run this post-season, but they should have enough to top a team heading in the wrong direction.

-Coyotes (#6) vs Hawks (#5), Hawks in 7
The Coyotes are the classic overachieving team this year, and Mike Smith had an amazing season in net.  A high team save percentage usually bodes well for the playoffs.  The Hawks on the other hand are always so dangerous, though nowhere near as complete a team as the Cup champs two years ago.  A lot could be riding on Jonathan Toews's health.  Both teams finished the season very strongly.

-Predators (#2) vs Wings (#4), Preds in 6
Like the Flyers/Pens in the East, this is the blockbuster matchup in the West.  The Wings finished the season ice cold on offense.  There's really no clear way to pick between these two, so I'm going with Nashville.

The Grudge Match

What's been all-but-inevitable has now become official.  The Flyers will play the hated Pens in the first round. 

It will be a nasty series.  I have to say it was very gratifying to hear some piling on the Pens in the last week.  First, Berube said Malkin and Crosby were the dirtiest players on their team.  Then Milbury called out Crosby (for which the league and network leaned on him to apologize), and Tortorella said they were the most arrogant team in the league for their hypocrisy in whining about cheap shots.  Lastly, Cherry called out Crosby for slashing and giving it out to guys.

Personally, I have been harping on these guys for years, mostly Malkin, for being total weasels.  When Crosby came into the league, he dove and cried all the time.  He mostly cleaned that up.  Malkin has flown totally under most people's radar, and I think he's a total punk.  Play him physically, and he will respond with sucker punches, slashes and elbows.  He will not square up physically--he only takes shots on unsuspecting players.  He's been doing this for years.

I also don't really care for Crosby complaining after the Flyers game last weekend about the Schenn cross-check (even though seconds before he hit Schenn late, high, and with more force), basically called out the Flyers for whining about the Briere hit ("maybe [Laviolette] shouldn't have put him out here"), and only then later admitting he was slashing the Flyers like crazy that game.

I don't like the Pens one bit, and this series could be a real slugfest, especially early on when each team is trying to set the tone and has some breathing room.  And all this is without even mentioning the Pens usual parade of players known to throw more than their share of cheapshots over the last few years---Kunitz, Ruutu, Cooke.  Whatever happens in this series physically, the Pens deserve it and I'm sick of their holier-than-thou attitude.