New Years Resolution; Fix the Penalty Kill

There are a few ways to judge the Flyers.  One, you could (correctly) say the Flyers defense simply isn't talented enough, so they're not a very good team.  Two, you could make a comparative analysis against last season, and see what that tells you.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of looking at paper and judging teams in the abstract, so I prefer approach two.

Last year, after settling in to Berube hockey, the Flyers were a solid playoff team (albeit by weak Eastern Conference standards).  This year, the Flyers have hit some pretty low depths in the standings.  What has really changed?  The roster is significantly the same, other than Hartnell for Umberger, and the loss of Timonen.  How much can those two events explain?

First, it has to be said that Umberger has been completely anonymous.  Hartnell, with all his warts, is clearly a superior player right now.  That said, Hartnell's absence hasn't seriously hurt the Flyers.  He left vacancies on the top line and top PP unit, but both units are doing just fine without him.  Raffl is currently complementing the astounding play of Voracek and Giroux, and while Schemn hasn't quite mastered the high-slot quick one-timer snapshot, the power play is operating at the same efficiency as last year.

What about Timonen?  He has been a centerpiece of the Flyers defense for several seasons.  Well, first it needs to be pointed out that he was basically a special teams player last season.  Timonen was last among among all Flyers defenseman in even-strength ice time last season.  As for his vacancy on the top PP unit, Streit is a talented PP quarterback, and the power play has suffered no drop off as mentioned above.  The penalty kill however is a different story.

The following graphic is pretty instructive.  The penalty kill is almost single-handedly killing the Flyers this season.

As the graph shows, the power play is the same, and the Flyers are actually slightly improved at 5v5.  There are slight drop-offs at the moment for shot differential and save percentage, although all those power play goals against could account for the drop in save percentage.

 You can also break up the Flyers performance down to a per-game basis.  The difference is dramatic, as the pie charts below show.

(Note that in both charts, "2" means 2 or more goals allowed in a game)

It also bears pointing  that the Flyers are finding themselves shorthanded less often this season than last season, so this increased number of PP goals against is purely on the rate of the penalty kill. The only remaining question is how much does the disastrous penalty kill account for the Flyers disappointing record this season.

It turns out that poor penalty kill performance may count for a lot, but not quite all of the Flyers weakened record.   This chart shows how many points the Flyers earning per sorted by PP goals against.

Even if you held constant penalty kill performance to last season, the Flyers are still not earning quite as many points a game as last season.  I can't say right now what is causing that last bit of performance difference, but I would go so far to say that most of the Flyers drop off this year is attributable simply to what is happening when the Flyers are shorthanded.

A Few Wins, and a Few Thoughts

Since my last post, the Flyers have notched two confident wins, beating the Devils and Hurricanes 4-1 and 5-1 respectively.  I take a few things from those wins.

-Secondary scoring.  It was a very Ed Snider thing to do what he did 2 weeks ago; calling out individuals for not performing in the middle of a season.  As the godfather of the Flyers, he does what he wants, even if other owners would never dare. 

Most of the credit towards the Flyers improved recent play comes down to contributions from secondary lines, and specifically Simmonds, Couturier and Read.  Is it a coincidence that those were the three guys Snider named?  Since those comments; Simmonds has 5 goals in 5 games (after a stretch of 3 goals in 20 games), Couturier is on 6 game points streak, and Read got his first goal and points in a few weeks.

I do not think comments from the owner were major catalysts for these guys, and furthermore today Berube revealed that Read has been playing through a foot injury this season.  Let's just chalk it up to Snider stating the obvious, and talented players eventually coming around.  Whatever it was, the Flyers really need the secondary scoring to continue.

-Better than the Bottom-Dwellers.  Both of the Flyers' big wins came against bottom teams in the Eastern Conference.  As I remarked in my last post, say what you will about this team, but they are better than a basement team.  The Flyers will have to start beating good teams to make the playoffs too, but I expect to see the Flyers lift themselves up and away in the standings from the truly bad NHL teams.

-Penalty Kill Still Sucks.  The good news is that the Flyers haven't allowed a 5v5 goal in 3 games.  The bad news is that the penalty kill continues to limp along, allowing 4 goals in the last 3 games.  This must change.  In my opinion, the awful PK is really the only significant difference between this year's lousy team and last year's playoff quality team, but more on that in my next post.

Is This the New Normal?

Flyers wrapped up a 4 game road trip, 1-1-2.  It is an improvement from the terrible stretch of play discussed in my last post, as they were competitive in every game.  Is this the best we can ask of this team?  To be merely be competitive?

Sequentially, the Flyers played a pretty good game in SJ but came away empty handed due to a shocking last minute goal against.  They followed that up with a fun game against Anaheim, including a clutch last second goal and the seemingly inevitable shootout loss.  The Flyers finally got a win versus LA, where they've had a lot of success the last few years, by having a good first 30 minutes, then hanging on for dear life the last 30.  The trip then ended with a bit of a thud, getting outplayed most of the game by Columbus (one of the worst teams in the East).

It's nice to see Schenn producing, and guys like Umberger are showing modest improvement, but the team feels like a mess.  There's some musical chairs happening on defense, and Lecavalier has been stuck in the press box.  It's an untenable state of affairs, and there's little reason to be expect a significant turnaround.

The Flyers are swimming with the bottom-dwellers in the standings.  If you break down their performance, they deserve to be there.

5v5: 22nd
Shot differential: 22nd
PP: 4th
PK: 29th
Save Percentage: 18th

Right now the Flyers are mediocre team with a crippling penalty kill.

I am also hearing some fans say they aren't surprised by this.  I will say that I AM, to some extent.  The bottom line is the Flyers were one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference from November 1 onwards last season (3rd overall I think, only behind Boston and Pittsburgh).  Now I certainly wouldn't have predicted them 3rd this year, especially without Timonen, but I thought they had a very good chance at a bottom half playoff spot.

That playoff spot is rapidly slipping away, leading many fans to talk of tanking to get highly anticipated prospects McDavid or Eichel.  Personally, I am not a fan of this plan, and there's not much reason to do so.  Here are the lottery odds this year.

It is true that finishing dead last would guarantee the Flyers a top 2 pick and one of McDavid or Eichel.  Beyond that, each slot on that chart only increases your chance at the #1 pick by a very small amount.  I think the bottom line is that the Flyers are a significantly better team than Edmonton, Buffalo and Carolina, and the Flyers lottery odds will be in the middle of the pack for non-playoff teams; i.e. not good.

Instead of chasing lottery balls, the Flyers can transition into making moves that won't pay off for another season or two.  Even then the Flyers don't have any obvious playoff rental material, but they can start shipping out defensemen as the defense will have to be entirely rebuilt anyway.

As sad as it is to say, it may be time for Flyers fans to switch into player development watching mode.  Giroux and Voracek are undoubtedly top notch players, but that's not enough.  Personally, I'll probably be spending much of this season focusing on the development of Schenn, Couturier and Laughton.

Flyers Searching for the Bottom

Any way you look at it, it's awful.  The Flyers are 1-7-1 in their last 9.  Only laughing stocks Buffalo, Carolina, and Edmonton, and injury-ravaged Columbus have worse records.  The penalty kill is dead last.  They have been dominated in their last 2 road division games against the Rangers and Islanders.  The Flyers are in the bottom handful of teams in shot differential, 5v5 Corsi percentage, and team save percentage.  The bottom line, is they are getting whipped.

Everyone knows the defense is not talented enough, but the problems have become much bigger.  For one thing, their team defensive coverage is terrible.  It seems opponents find countless passing seams to exploit and are quicker to every loose puck, and that's when someone is not completely unmarked in the slot.  One could look at the Detroit loss and conclude maybe the rebounds and bounces simply didn't go in favor of the Flyers, but when it happens every night, it's not luck.

Second, the offense is completely reliant on the Giroux line.  Giroux is generally doing his thing, Schenn is contributing right now, and Voracek continues to be spectacular.  Every other line has disappeared.  Lecavalier can't find a role.  Umberger has been total deadweight.  Couturier handles the puck like a hot potato and immediately looks to get rid of it.  Simmonds has faded after his promising start.  Then end result is that Giroux and Voracek have been on the ice for every single Flyers goal in the last 4 games.

Bad team defense and completely one dimensional scoring is a recipe for a last place team.  The Flyers had a similarly bad start last year amongst the coaching change, but as I've already written, there's no excuse for such a start this year.  Furthermore, there is no clear path for the Flyers to crawl out of this mess.  I expect things to naturally rebound a little, but given the depth of the problems, hope for a playoff spot appears increasingly distant.

Trade Speculation: Oilers and Flyers

The Oilers are terrible.  They and Buffalo are the worst teams in the league.  Most recently, the Oilers were crushed 7-1 at home by the Blackhawks and were booed and heckled off the ice.  As you would expect, fans are frustrated and the team must be looking at all alternatives of management changes or making a trade.

The latest buzz is that the Oilers want a center, and are dangling David Perron.  In the past, the Oilers were looking for defense, and they may or may not have been close to trading for Coburn.  One version of the story is that Flyers asked for Eberle for Coburn, but then Oilers wanted to include Simmonds in the deal.

Whatever happened then, is there a deal out there now?  Perron might be the kind of player Hextall is looking to add.  The Flyers sorely lack skill wingers.  Now 26, Perron is a skilled and energetic winger.  I think there were high hopes for him in St. Louis, but his time there was derailed with concussions.  He's probably not a defensive zone stalwart, and his cap hit is ~$3.8 million this year and next until he is a free agent.

Perron had a solid first season in Edmonton last year with 57 points in 78 games.  This year, he has 10 in 21, with one of the worst +/- on the team, even though his Corsi rating is one of the best on the team.  Advanced stats also show he hardly gets any defensive zone starts, which may contribute to that high Corsi rating and speak to their (lack of) defensive trust in him.

While some have floated that the Oilers are looking for a #1 center, there's no way Perron is going to fetch that.  Would they be interested in Schenn or Couturier?  I think they'd listen.

Schenn and Couturier are both a few years younger than Perron, and their career potential is still uncertain.  Over the last year or so, Couturier has seemed to be more valued than Schenn.  This season, Schenn is outperforming Couturier. 

In my opinion, Couturier's development has been pretty disappointing, showing little offensive initiative and participating in an awful, awful penalty kill.  Every time he gets the puck, he almost immediately stops skating, holds it, and looks to dish it off.  Playing like that, it's no wonder he hasn't tallied a point in 15 out of 20 games this season.  Then again, he was the ice time leader for the Flyers last night.

Either way, Hextall is not going to trade either young player based on how many points they have in the last month.  The Flyers look like they will be in a for a battle just to reach the playoffs this year, and Hextall does not appear inclined to seek short term solutions.  Perron being older and closer to UFA status probably kills a swap for a young Flyers center.

The only remaining wrinkle is if this could rekindle Coburn talks.  Coburn is a defensive anchor, though he's not a game-changer.  He plays a lot of minutes for the Flyers, and he could do the same in Edmonton for several more seasons.  He would be a good addition for Edmonton, I think.

My thought is, that Flyers defense is lousy, and with or without Coburn it's going to remain generally mediocre this season.  Hextall's prescription for fixing the defense is to wait for young guys to develop, and by the time that happens Coburn will need a new contract.  Trading Coburn and giving Perron 1.5 seasons in Philadelphia to earn a spot on the team and a new contract might be an interesting way to develop the team with an eye to the future when it would be primed for serious playoff runs.  Young reinforcements are coming to the Flyers defense, while there are not many on the way to put on the wings.

A Week Without Points

Things were looking up for the Flyers, with 3 consecutive wins in strong performances.  After an extended break, the Flyers lost all that momentum and came away empty handed against the Blue Jackets and Canadiens over the weekend.

Those two teams represented the opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Canadiens are first overall, and the Blue Jackets last.  The result was the same against both however.  I thought the performance against the Blue Jackets performance was sloppy, while the Canadiens game mainly got away from the Flyers despite some battling.

The real takeaway from both games is that the Flyers yielded 3 PP goals against in each.  You won't win many games giving up 3 PP goals, regardless of who you're playing.  The Flyers' penalty kill is now ranked 29th, and they've been shorthanded more often recently. 

It's too early in the season to be scoreboard watching and checking the standings.  The Flyers really should just be concerned about getting the point they can by themselves, but these penalty killing problems must be addressed ASAP or they will continue to drop points.


Notes
-Brayden Schenn's stock is rising recently.  He's on a 5 game point streak, scoring 7 points in those games.  When he was moved to the Read-Couturier line, that line looked much more perky offensively, and when he slid in with Giroux and Voracek against Montreal he scored twice.  He now has 13 points in 16 games overall.

-The Umberger-Lecavalier line has looked pretty hopeless.  Clearly the Flyers worst line IMO.  Umberger has remained invisible, and while Lecavalier has been getting PP time, he hasn't been very effective.  Against Montreal, he was extremely trigger happy and attempted 12 shots, but only one of those even found its way to Price.

What's Working, What Isn't

One month into the season, some truths around this year's team are settling in.

-FTW.  Voracek is playing amazing.  Clearly the best performer on the team right now.  I attended the LA Kings game last week, and he was easily the best player on the ice for either team IMO.  With 18 points in 12 games, only Crosby has more points.  He's still not much of a shooter in my opinion, but he is a top-notch puck carrier and his 10-pound weight loss in the offseason has worked out really well, noticeably increasing his quickness and stamina.

-FAIL.  The team has no Hartnell replacement on the top line or top PP-unit.  Raffl has done pretty well playing with Voracek and Giroux, tying Simmonds for the team lead in goals largely with his skating and by popping up in good spots on both ends of the ice.  Still, he's just a complementary player, and he doesn't play on the PP either.  And now he's out for 6 weeks as ANOTHER Flyers gets injured after being struck with a shot in the foot.  The man the Flyers received for Hartnell, R.J. Umberger, is appearing in games according to the box scores, but I cannot verify that fact after watching the games.

-FTW.  PPs against are way down.  The Flyers are currently in 6th in the league in times shorthanded.  They were 29th last year, and dead last the two years before that.

-FAIL.  The PP is down, and their failure to convert chances at key junctures in games has cost them points in the standings.  Part of that is Hartnell down, and part of the is Streit replacing Timonen.  Streit is a good PP player, but his style is much different.  Streit loves to shoot (and has a much better shot that Timonen), whereas Timonen was a manager back there.  Streit's style may lead to a little more streakiness in results if the bounces don't go your way when you fire it in there.  Additionally, when Lecavalier returned from injury he was immediately put into the Hartnell high slot spot, but by the end of the game Schenn was reinserted there.  I guess Schenn will get an extended opportunity on the ice with top talent there, even if he lost the chance to play LW with Giroux and Voracek at even strength.  Let's see what you can do, young man.

-FTW.  Michael Del Zotto's role is increasing, often leading the team in ice time.  He holds onto the puck longer than any other defensemen on the roster, which was a trait this defensive group was generally lacking.

-FAIL.  Ghost was gone in a flash.  I don't blame the team, but I was hoping to see a few flashes from Ghost before he was sent back down.  I did like what I saw from Colaiacovo in his first game, reading the game well and managing the puck.  It will be interesting to see how a defense corps prominently featuring multiple guys whose NHL career was on the fringes (Colaiacovo, Del Zotto, Schultz) does over the next few weeks while MacDonald and Coburn recover.

Ghost Sighting

Last night the Flyers clawed their way to victory against the Wings, despite being outshot 24-8 after two periods.  The turning point of the game was a nice scoring play by the Flyers go-to scoring combo of Chris VandeVelde and Nicklas Grossmann.  Not exactly a well-deserved win, but I'll take it after coming up empty-handed in better performances a few weeks ago.

The real noteworthy thing about last night's game was the debut of Shayne Gostisbehere.  I've seen "Ghost" play a handful of times (including the NCAA championship game last year in person), and he is a very exciting player.  Fast, sleek, skilled, and aggressive on offense.  He is, however, still far from being a complete NHL defensemen.  He's going to have to learn to pick his spots carefully in the fast-paced NHL game, and in terms of raw physical strength it is not an exaggeration to say that he would be one of the weakest defensemen in the NHL.

Hextall has been telling everyone who will listen that he prefers to let young players develop slowly in the lower ranks.  Morin and Ghost looked pretty good in the preseason; good enough that in years past Clarke or Holmgren would've have kept such young talent on the roster.  It wasn't enough for Hextall, who is more concerned about where these young players will in 3 years than giving this year's NHL roster an incremental boost.

Nothing has changed from that plan, and Ghost is only here because of injuries to Coburn and MacDonald.  This is by no means a permanent call-up, and I'd be very surprised if Ghost is still on the Flyers roster after MacDonald and Coburn return.  Based on his ice time last night, he might not even last that long.

Ghost got almost 3 minutes of PP time on the second unit in MacDonald's spot, but played less that 10 minutes at even strength.  This was several minutes less than any other Flyers defensemen.  Surely part of that is easing him into his first real NHL game, but Flyers fans shouldn't be under any delusions that Ghost figures to be a key player for the Flyers anytime soon.

Until the inevitable recall to the AHL happens, I'll just enjoy seeing a glimpse of the Flyers future.  Even if it's just a few games, I expect Ghost to make a few tantalizing plays.  You could say this Ghost sighting will be like so many other ghost sightings; ephemeral, but intriguing.

Positive Steps

After an 0-2-2 start, just about anything would be an improvement.  A 2-1-0 road trip against quality teams however is a success under any circumstance.

I already wrote about all the good to take from the Dallas game.  Since then, the Flyers were thoroughly worked over by Chicago, and had a nice win over Pittsburgh.

My first takeaway is that there is still a considerable chasm in quality between the Flyers and a true cup contender like Chicago.  The Flyers simply couldn't keep up.

The second takeaway is that the East is generally well behind the West.  The Penguins may ultimately be one of the better teams in the East, and the Flyers simply beat 'em.  The Flyers have a great record in Pittsburgh, and sometimes rivalry games have a life of their own outside general team trends, but the conclusion I lean towards is that the Flyers can make noise in a mediocre Eastern Conference.

Already with the Trade Rumors:
There is already some fleeting trade talk around the Flyers, principally around Brayden Schenn.  While there are no specifics to consider at this point, I can make some general comments about Schenn.

I haven't been impressed with the way he is developing the last few years, and it appears the Flyers aren't either.  When they acquired what many seemed to rank as one of the best prospects in hockey, I think the Flyers expected to get a high quality second-line center, if not a guy who could be the #1 for many teams.

Right now, I think there is some question is if Schenn can even be a second line center.  He gets some chances, he pops up in good places in the offensive zone, but he rarely makes a significant contribution scoring or creating for others.

While Schenn is off to a bad start this season, underwhelming on Giroux's wing and on the top PP unit, it's too early to cash him out.  It's not impossible that he find his niche as a second line player, and it's still early days of the season.  What should make Schenn sweat long term is if Couturier shows offensive ability this season, and Laughton keeps killing it in the AHL.  At that point there is no need for under-performing young center on the club.

A Win!!

Last year the Flyers' start was so bad they fired the coach and began a mid-season philosophy change.  Now that Berube's been here for a year and had the whole offseason and preseason, that wasn't supposed to happen again this year.  Still, watching last night's win over Dallas, I felt like I was watching a different team than the first four games of this season.

In the first period Berube could be seen chiding Simmonds on the bench after a turnover high in the offensive zone, attempting a criss-crossing drop-pass play.  That set the tone for the rest of the game, as the Flyers worked nearly exclusively along the wall in the offensive zone, and quickly turning the puck towards the net after a successful cycle.  It was a significant change from the first few games which saw a lot of attempted finesse plays, and centering/square passes to no one in particular.

Although conceding 5 goals is no one's idea of an ideal performance, I think last night demonstrated the foundation of how this year's squad is to win hockey games; simple, low risk cycles in the offensive zone; defensemen getting the puck on the net; momentum changing power play performances; and the top line answering the bell in clutch time.

It's not exactly razzle-dazzle stuff, or the possession hockey that you would see from the Sedin twins or Pavel Datsyuk, but it may be the most effective formula for the talent the Flyers possess.  They don't have the horses to play fast, possession hockey, but you need to work with the team you have even if it's not the one you may want.

The Bruins win playing the same type of game.  Their puck support is always solid, and many of their goals stem from simple point shots with traffic in front of the net, creating deflection and rebound opportunities.  Additionally, it's hockey longtime Flyers fans will know well, and it produced the Flyers most exciting game of the young season.

The tough road trip is just beginning.  There are still many injury and performance issues to straighten out, but I think their first win last night provided a real building block going forward.

Still Waiting

So a new blog post from me has finally come.  A first victory for the Flyers this season, has not.

Flyers fans, ever the patient bunch, are likely tempted to jump off a bridge right now.  The start of 0-2-2 is very worrying, but I won't declare them an awful team just yet.

My main fallback on this point is that, as I ran the numbers last year, between November and March 26 the Flyers were the 5th best team in the NHL.  This team is basically the same squad, minus Timonen and Hartnell.

The Flyers took a lot of flack in the offseason as they appeared to do nothing but make themselves weaker.  They traded Hartnell, and Timonen went down with a devastating injury.  In addition, Steve Mason is still not well respected around the league as an above-average starting goalie.

Four games into the season, the critics were right.  With #HartnellDown the team has no quality LW, Mason looked shaky, and the defense was inept.  Last year a slow start was forgivable due to Giroux's injury and the coaching change.  This was why I was willing to look at the standings from November 1 on and wipe away October.  The Flyers do not deserve that leniency this year.

An alternative view of things is that the Flyers can only win if Giroux is playing at an MVP level and the power play is pouring in goals.  Last year, the Flyers had the worst 5v5 goal differential of all playoff teams.  This year the power play is looking solid, although they still haven't really found a replacement for Hartnell's high slot role on the number one unit.  That is a long term worry, but the big thing is the 5v5 play has gone from average to awful.  They'll never be a juggernaut there with this roster, but they have to get back to average, and that fact may hinge upon Giroux finding superlative form.


Miscellaneous Notes:
-Simmonds is currently playing at a level that I never saw him reaching.  5 goals in 4 games, and showing an offensive poise I didn't expect.  He's always been a streaky scorer, but I daresay this is more than a hot streak with a few consecutive bang-in goals.

-The Schenn brothers have been very disappointing.  Luke Schenn is staring at a league worst -6 rating, and Brayden has not made an offensive impression.  Personally, I think Luke's +/- reflects a lot of goals that I wouldn't blame him for, and that Luke could be a serviceable player with the right partner in the right role.  As for Brayden, I am running out of patience for him to emerge as an impact offensive player.  That he lasted less than 2 games on the wing with Giroux and Voracek is his failure.

-Bellemare has looked pretty good to me.  He skates smoothly and thinks fast, which will get him far.  Like Raffl, he needs a few dozen games on the 4th line to fully adapt to the NHL.

-Lecavalier has also looked impressive to me.  I also thought he looked pretty good at the beginning of last season and showed some chemistry with B. Schenn before injuries really ruined his season.  It's bad timing for him to get injured now, although taking a shot off the foot shouldn't create the same kind of lingering injury that the bad back did to him last year.

Save the Date

Apparently June 23rd is a big day for the Flyers.  In 2011, Carter and Richards were shipped out on June 23rd.  In 2012, JVR was traded on June 23rd.  This year, the Flyers conducted some other noteworthy business.

Hartnell for Umberger
In a move basically no one saw coming, the Flyers traded Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick.  Everyone knew Umberger wanted out from Columbus, but Hartnell leaving Philly is a surprise.  The purposes of the trade are not obvious, but there are a few things to take away.

One, this appears to be Flyers re-tailoring their rosters for Hextall-Berube hockey.  Most would say Hartnell is the better player, but Hartnell is a clumsy player.  Stylistically, Umberger is a better skater and much better in possession.  While not a young speedster, he is closer to Berube's "play faster-think faster" mantra.

Two, the Flyers only get minor, delayed cap relief.  Hextall said he just let it be known he was looking for cap relief, and this trade just kind of came up.  Truthfully, Umberger's and Hartnell's cap hits are nearly identical ($4.750m v $4.6m), although Umberger's contract has two fewer years left on it.  Hextall is looking ahead to two seasons from now when Voracek will be a UFA, and Couturier and Schenn will be RFAs.  Umberger will still have one more left on his contract at that point, however.

The last point is that Umberger's has been declining.  His first three years in Columbus were reliably productive, but his last three seasons have been poor.  He played 74 games last season, albeit through a few tough injuries that may have slowed him down.  He and Hartnell are the same age, and it will be interested to see where each of this guys are physically in 2 years.

Umberger will be a versatile forward for the Flyers who may help a bit in puck possession, but he does not improve the team in any significant way.  Hartnell's departure also opens a hole on the top PP unit.

Schenn signed
On the same day, the Flyers also did something far more predictable.  Completing Hextall's self described #1 offseason priority, he signed Brayden Schenn.

It's a relatively short, cheap, "bridge contract" than many players his age receive.  It provides the team with an affordable young talent, while leaving the player the opportunity to earn a significant raise with his next contract (ask PK Subban about that one).

With Hartnell gone, Schenn might see time on left wing of the top line.  Either way, it's time for Schenn to show everyone what's he got.  At one time he projected as a prospective number 1 NHL center, but now there is some question if he will even be a good #2.  I can't say I see visual evidence that he is on the cusp of a breakout, but the development of a young player isn't linear either.

He plays a different style than Couturier, but the players will always be compared as young centers and potential future pillars of the team, acquired at the same day (June 23!).  I think it's safe to say Schenn's stock in the organization has dropped below Couturier at this time, but now he's got two years raise his stock back up.

Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Lecavalier

With the draft upcoming, teams are making their offseason trade plans.  For the Flyers, the most likely piece to trade is Lecavalier.  After only one year here, many in Flyerdom are sour on him.

He arrived here last year as a 33-year old free agent to play under Peter Laviolette, amid some hope of reviving the second line.  He did get 20 goals last year, so it's not a disaster, but time on the 4th line in the playoffs leads the presumption he has no future on the Hextall/Berube Flyers.

I thought he showed some chemistry with Schenn early in the season, but his season was derailed by back ailments and he never found his place under Berube's system.  He also seems ill-suited to play wing at this point of his career, and Hextall's youth focus presumably means the second line center spot is reserved for Schenn.

So what are the trade options?  They are probably more limited than most think.  He is owed $16.5m over the next 4 years, at a cap hit of $4.5m/season.  He is seen as a player on the decline around the league, and a team trading for him probably will require the Flyers to eat some of his salary in any trade.  Lecavalier also must approve of any trade.

It has been easy for everyone to speculate that Nashville is a fit for Lecavalier.  Laviolette is the new coach there, and they are definitely lacking offensive centermen.  I haven't actually heard anything from the Nashville end, and my worry is that Nashville will only give up something like a mid-round pick and still expect the Flyers to pick up salary.  Do the Flyers want to be rid of Lecavalier so much that they'll eat salary and accept only a token return?

The other day it was reported Lecavalier would allow a trade to Florida, but again I haven't heard of actual interest from Florida.  I think it's safe to presume a Lecavalier trade will not return Florida's #1 pick in the draft, which they are shopping...

Lastly, the Flyers could give Lecavalier another year here.  Let him play second line center and see if he can fit in.  The bonus of this plan is, Lecavalier's contract pays him reduced amounts the remaining years following one more season.  $4.5, $3, and $3 million to be exact.  At that point, the Flyers could trade him to a small market team that is not up against the cap, and not have to eat any salary or cap hit from Lecavalier (said team wouldn't care about the $4.5m cap hit, and will appreciate his lower actual salary due on a smaller real budget).

All in all my takeaway is, shop him, but you don't NEED to dump him this offseason.  If the Flyers really wanted to add salary this offseason they'd need to create cap space, but I don't think Hextall is in the big acquisition mode, nor should he be.

Offseason Do's and Don'ts: Kesler

This week it has been reported that Ryan Kesler still wants out of Vancouver, and that the Flyers are one of the few teams on his list of acceptable teams.  Unfortunately for him, Kesler should not be on the Flyers' list of trade candidates.

One reason is that the Flyers perpetually have too many centers.  This team already has Giroux as the #1, Lecavalier and Schenn as possible #2s, Couturier as #3, and Scott Laughton coming up.  That group could occupy those spots for a long time.  Kesler can play wing, but why shoehorn him into the lineup that way?

A second reason is that Kesler has been trending down.  He's still a solid 2 way center, but his days of being a 70 point player appear behind him, and he's been in the 40 point range the last 2 full seasons.  He plays a physically demanding style, and as someone who'll turn 30 this summer, production will likely sag and injuries will likely mount in the coming seasons.

Lastly, Vancouver will probably ask for Brayden Schenn and other sweeteners like a 1st round pick and/or a prospect in return.  Personally, I wouldn't trade Schenn straight up for Kesler at this point.  Their production next year will likely be comparable, although Kesler would be more reliable defensively.  Schenn is only 22 however, and his production will likely rise in the coming seasons.  Additionally, although not yet signed, Schenn should be significantly cheaper than Kesler's cap hit of $5 million the next two seasons.

A quick little chart of production:

Kesler had a big breakout season at 24, but I would rather go with Schenn and hope he develops similarly, rather than pay Kesler for what he's done in the past and hope he finds it again in his 30s.

If Hextall is at all serious about his pledge to focus on holding onto youth long term, acquiring Kesler this offseason makes little sense for the Flyers.  Fortunately, I see no indication that they actually are interested anyway.

Playoff Picks 2014

Bruins	Red Wings
Regulation Record: 47-19-16 (110 points) Last Year: lost in finals (6 games) to Hawks	Regulation Record: 30-28-24 (84 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (7 games) to Hawks
+Clearly the most solid team in the East, if not the NHL +Best 5v5 team in NHL, easily best overall goal differential +Much improved PP from previous seasons +Dominant in 3rd period +Recent history of playoff success -???	-Worst record of all playoff teams when scoring first -Doesn’t come from behind well and give up a lot of 3rd period goals -Negative overall goal differential -By many metrics, worst overall team in the playoffs -Datsyuk back, but Zetterberg still out?  Others?

Season matchup - Red Wings 3 to 1

In my opinion, Boston is the best team in the playoffs, and Detroit is the worst.  Is there any good news for Detroit?  Yes--Boston had a worse record against Detroit than any other team in the league.  That still will only get Detroit 2 wins here.  Boston in 6.

Penguins	Blue Jackets
Regulation Record: 40-24-18 (98 points) Last Year: lost in 3rd (4 games) to Bruins	Regulation Record: 35-32-15 (85 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Quietly won division with ease, despite major injury problems +#1 team in NHL when scoring first +Uber-talented offense +Top notch special teams (#1 PP, #2 PK) -Leadership deficit and flaming wreck playoff series losses last few seasons -Rely on PP for high % of goals -Fleury has been simply awful in playoffs last few years	+Play tough, hit a lot +Breakout season from Ryan Johansen, solid season from Bobrovsky -Down two of their more talented forwards in Umberger and Horton

Season matchup - Pittsburgh won all 5

Despite all their talent, the Pens have not made a noticeable run in a few years.  In an injury filled season, they might finally have a near complete lineup in the playoffs.  This is enough to beat the Jackets.  Pens in 5.

Canadiens	Lightning
Regulation Record: 33-28-21 (87 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (5 games) to Sens	Regulation Record: 32-27-23 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Much improved season from Price +Career year from Pacioretty -Bad record when allowing first goal +#1 shot blocking in NHL	-Lost their captain in unusual circumstances +Just got Stamkos back -Incredible season from Bishop, but it looks like he is out

Season Matchup - 1 TB win, 3 OT games

Not a very sexy matchup, and I don’t like either team’s chances of going far.  I was right to be skeptical of the Habs last year, should I be skeptical again?  I feel a little bit better about them this year.  Prepare for a lot of 2-1 games in this series, meaning it will probably turn on hustle and bounces.  I’ll say Montreal in 7.

Rangers	Flyers
Regulation Record: 39-31-12 (90 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (5 games) to Bruins	Regulation Record: 35-30-17 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
-Big acquisition St. Louis slow to fit in +Very tough defense and goaltending -Not much offense +#4 shot differential in NHL +Can really lock down 3rd period	+Overcame brutal start, been one of top teams in East since -PP faded at end of season, which they can’t afford +Lots of 3rd period comebacks -Relatively weak defense among playoff teams, prone to d-zone breakdowns, and underwater on 5v5 goal differential +Lots of offensive depth with seven 20 goal scorers -Mason hurt?

Season matchup - 2-2 split

The Rangers have owned the Flyers the last few years.  The coaches for each side has changed, and 2-2 looks even, but the Flyers losing streak in NY continues unabated (8 games now).  I’d like to think the Flyers are a better team than NY, but I have a bad feeling that NY will simply outlast the Flyers with patient play.  Flyers will need a big PP effort if they hope to win.  NY in 7.

Ducks	Stars
Regulation Record: 44-20-18 (106 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (7 games) to Wings	Regulation Record: 34-31-17 (85 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+#1 comeback team in NHL +#2 offense in NHL +#2 5v5 goal differential in league -Top heavy offense with Perry and Getzlaf, and young defense -So-so special teams -Boudrea teams 2-5 in playoff series, despite usually being the higher seed	+Seguin-Benn-Nichushkin could be a classic line in the making +Draw a ton of penalties -But have a weak PP -Top heavy offense with Seguin and Benn

Season matchup - Stars took 2 of 3

The Ducks had another great regular season, having 4 more regulation wins than any team in the West.  Dallas was the last team to lock up their playoff spot, and are really just an average NHL team.  They’re not particularly efficient at winning when scoring first, and the Ducks are the best at coming from behind in such situations.  Dallas will never be safe this series.  Ducks in 6.

Avalanche	Wild
Regulation Record: 37-22-23 (97 points) Last Year:missed playoffs	Regulation Record: 32-27-23 (87 points) Last Year: missed playoffs
+Massive turnaround season -Lineup still very young, untested in playoffs.  Too soon? +Excellent at protecting 3rd period lead +Great record on the road (even if their road +/- is only +5) -26th in shot differential	+Bryzgalov to the rescue after 3 Wild goalies went down with injuries--Harding back for the playoffs? -Worst away record of any playoff team

Season matchup - 3-1-1 for the Avalanche

Some series you can look at and immediately see a clear favorite.  Some series you can look at and know it will be a tight battle, even if the ultimate winner is tough to pick.  This series you look at, and don’t know how it’s going to go.  Two teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year, with a particularly stunning turnaround for the Avs.  It all seems too fast for them, and I have this nagging feeling that their ability to win close games (which was bolstered by a league leading 10 OT victories), often while being outshot, could quickly slip away.  The Avs are not as strong as their seed suggests, but is Minnesota the team to knock them off?  I can’t quite go that far.  Avs in 7.

Sharks	Kings
Regulation Record: 37-22-23 (97 points) Last Year: lost in 2nd (7 games) to Kings	Regulation Record: 34-28-20 (88 points) Last Year: lost in 3rd (5 games) to Hawks
+Breakout season for Joe Pavelski +Best home record in NHL +Block a ton of shots, lots of takeaways +Best shot differential in league	-Sloppy; 29th in blocked shots, 30th in missed shots, 27th in giveaways, 30th in takeaways +Very good shot differential +Hold opponents to very low shooting %, and very tough to score on even strength +Lots of hits -Anemic offense and poor PP

Season Matchup:  Even 2-2-1

In their playoffs series last year, the home team won every game.  During this regular season, the home team won every game except a sole 1-0 Kings road victory.  Does the Sharks’ home ice advantage tip the series?  I always get burned picking against the Kings, and the Kings will be the popular pick here, but doing so one more time won’t hurt me.  Sharks in 7.

Blackhawks	Blues
Regulation Record: 39-21-22 (100 points) Last Year: Stanley Cup	Regulation Record: 40-23-19 (99 points) Last Year: lost in 1st (6 games) to Kings
+Defending champs +Toews and Kane returning from injury -Play loose--high scoring games, high shooting % against	+Lineup primed for playoff success now with coming of age core, veteran acquisitions +Excellent overall goal differential -Total meltdown down the stretch--6 straight losses, 2 goals or less in 9 straight games -Several key forwards carrying injuries

Season matchup - 3-2 for the Blues

Last year the Blues were the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs, but couldn’t get past the Kings.  This year they looked like cup favorites all year, but this late collapse has thrown them into a nightmare matchup with the defending champs.  Even assuming all their injured forwards get back for most of the 1st round, I can’t pick them to knock off the champs.  Hawks in 6.

Hockey Books, Part 2

So way back when, I promised a part 2 to my brief thoughts on a few hockey books.  Maybe I should follow up on that!

Journeyman - Sean Pronger
Here's a pretty fun book by Chris's older brother.  It's hard to keep track of Sean's career, from being a 2nd round pick in 1991, to playing for 7 NHL teams, and also appearing in AHL, IHL, ECHL and DEL.  Sean has the kind of sense of humor I appreciate, pretty dry and sarcastic, which make the book enjoyable.  I knew I needed to read this book when I saw a Q&A he was doing on the internet to promote the book, and to the question "what is your favorite hockey memento from your career?", he responded "the puck my brother stole in the Stanley Cup finals against Chicago."  It's interesting to journey with Sean across all his career stops, remembering his highs (getting his first one-way NHL contract, secondary assist on series clinching goal in game 7 in the first round of the NHL playoffs), and lows (too many to list or remember).  There is also a little Forrest Gump factor to things, like hearing him conclude his career with a season in Germany and playing with Doug Weight (my favorite player) there during the NHL lockout.

The Final Call - Kerry Fraser
If I'm reading player books, I had to read one by a referee.  First, it was remarkable to read from Fraser's perspective.  Reading this book, I definitely got the image of him being a hockey Ned Flanders.  Perfectly (impossibly?) polite, wholesome, fair minded, religious, and with a brood of children like the Brady Brunch.  From a higher level perspective, it's also interesting to hear how officials approach their job.  The physical training they do, the idea of managing a game and participants rather than just calling penalties as they happen, and having good and bad games.  To that end, Fraser also laments taking names off referee shirts, and how that harmed communication between the players and referees.  Fans don't see that side of things in a thankless job.

This is Russia - Life in the KHL - Bernd Bruckler
Bruckler is a former Flyers prospect, and a book about the bizarre world of the KHL was a temptation I couldn't resist.  "This is Russia," is a fitting title, as that's a recurring theme is this book when bizarre or ghetto things happen, and even Russian veterans just shrug and say, "hey, this is Russia."  Part of this book for me was confirming suspicions I had about the sketchy nature of the KHL (ghetto transportation, greased palms of police officers, going into a room of strangers and receiving wads of cash in a garbage bag after late paychecks, etc...).  I also learned new things, like bazas, which are basically "bases" teams require players to stay at as a relic of the Soviet era control over life and people, complete with shoddy, spartan facilities.  The writing isn't particularly vivid, which is what you get with a book written in English by an Austrian player and a Finnish hockey-writer, but it wasn't a hindrance either.

I dare not promise Hockey Books part 3 at this time, as there's not anything I'm too anxious to read.  I may eventually read books like Jonesy by Keith Jones, Gordie Howe's Son by Mark Howe, or find some others.

5 Out of 6 Ain't Bad

The Flyers knew they faced a key point in the season.  A March homestand (plus a home/home against Pittsburgh) while the Flyers fought to keep their heads above water in tight standings would have a major effect on the Flyers season's fortunes, directly and pyschologically.  Recall last March, when the Flyers faced a pivotal "Rivalry Week" with games against Pittsburgh, Boston and New York, and came away with 0 points.

For the most part, the Flyers aced this test.  The Flyers knocked around a beat-up and dispirited Pens team, and took 2 of 3 from NHL elites like the Hawks, Kings and Blues.  I'm not sure you could ask for much more.

All season long I've been assuring myself that the Flyers truthfully are just a fringe playoff team, staring at a one-and-done playoff trip (assuming they even got that far).  Now I'm relenting and beginning to reconsider.  Surely the Flyers do not have the horses on defense to be considered a favorite, but they are a team that refuses to lose.  They're never out of the game, and that makes any opponent nervous.

Maybe it's more accurate to simply forget about the Flyers awful start to the season.  Different coach, different Giroux, different system.  Just throw it all out, and pretend the season started on November 1.

A quick look at some NHL standings since that date.
Boston - 60 games, 88 points (1.47/gm)
St. Louis - 61 games, 87 points (1.43/gm)
Pittsburgh - 59 games, 79 points (1.34/gm)
Chicago - 59 games, 78 points (1.32/gm)
Philadelphia - 60 games, 77 points (1.28/gm)
Anaheim - 57 games, 68 points (1.19/gm)
San Jose - 60 games, 69 points (1.15/gm)

Seems about right with what I've been watching the last few weeks.  The Flyers are not up to snuff with the title favorites, but maybe they really have elevated themselves into the second tier of flawed but dangerous NHL teams.

Out of Hibernation

Yes, the time has come to bring this blog out of hibernation.  The Olympics are over, the trade deadline looms, and the stretch run beckons.  A good a time as any to start again!

Soooo, to begin with Flyers talk.  It was a productive weekend for the Flyers, taking 4 points from division opponents.  They are currently in second place, but it's all so tight, that doesn't mean much.  A bad week or so and they could easily fall several spots.

I don't have much new to say about the team really, but it does appear the team will go as far as Voracek, Giroux and Mason can take them.  Those are the real make-or-break players for me.

Also, this is old news, but let's take a minute to marvel at the Flyers' third period excellence.  With the win yesterday, the Flyers extended their franchise record of 12 wins in a season when trailing in the 3rd period.  Simply setting the record is impressive (it was held by the powerful 1997 Lindros Stanley Cup finals team), but more impressive is where they came from.

Last year, the Flyers were -15 in the 3rd period, 28th in the league.  When Laviolette was fired this year, they were being outscored 6-1 in the 3rd period.  Now the Flyers comeback like crazy, are 2nd in the league in 3rd period goals, and are +9 overall in the 3rd.  Where did this come from?  It's hard to say.  I'll just enjoy it for what it is.

Trade Deadline
The NHL trade deadline is Wednesday at 3pm.  I don't expect (nor do I want) the Flyers to be buyers at the deadline this year.  They are missing too many pieces to make a rental worthwhile, and lack disposable pieces to trade away.  Still, the trade deadline could be pretty interesting league-wide.

The Blues have already made a big move getting Ott and Miller from Buffalo.  They look primed right now. 

Kesler wants out in Vancouver, and reportedly Pittsburgh has already made a big offer (please Flyers stay out of this---there is no room for him on this roster).

The Islanders are almost surely trading Thomas Vanek and Andrew MacDonald.

The Rangers may trade their captain if they can't get Callahan signed, and Marty St. Louis is another captain that wants to be traded (a ridiculous story overall).

Moulson?  Ehrhoff?  Edler?

There's a lot to chew on.  Granted, trade deadlines are a lot of talk and a little action the last few years, but the cap is going up next year, and teams can trade salary so maybe we'll see some action.

Regarding the Flyers, the only trades acceptable to me are for long-term investments on defense.  I personally believe the Flyers must rebuild their defense from scratch, so any youth or quality is welcome.  By the same token, Mezo may intrigue some playoff teams looking for depth at the back end of their defensive corps, so he may be heading the other way from Philadelphia.