Things are about to get interesting this offseason. The draft is Friday, and free agency starts July 1. The draft is the most likely time for offseason trades to occur (and the Flyers have a well-established history of doing so), so the pieces on the table could start moving then. Also, Holmgren has not gone to much trouble denying that he will be looking to improve the team this offseason. With that in mind, here are some of the items to track regarding the Flyers.
Jagr - The on-again, off-again re-signing took another turn this week, as Darren Dreger reported that Jagr will test free agency. Some have said the only reason the Flyers haven't signed him already is tagging space, but once July 1 hits and the offers roll in, all bets are off. I read a post on a message board yesterday (I know, I know....) but it sounded completely reasonable---that the Flyers have a deal on the table that Jagr will sign, but he wants to wait and see if a contender will give him better playing time guarantees. Such a contingency is completely consistent with this saga. In the end, I don't think there are many NHL teams out there willing to give Jagr that assurance, but all it takes is one...
Carle - Carle is in a similar boat to Jagr---Holmgren keeps saying he is confident the team can sign him, and "at below market rate" no less. Carle has said he prefers to stay in Philadelphia, but how much of a discount will he accept to stay? The above quote is as close to an NHL team will come to admitting they are lowballing a player, and I have maintained all season that someone will throw $5+ million at Carle. Elliote Friedman also said that Carle may prefer to go west, and be closer to his home state of Alaska.
Bobrovsky - This is more of an under-the-radar piece, but there is some writing on the wall that Bobrovsky's time in Philly is up. He doesn't seem well suited to back up Bryz, he will be a UFA after this season, and a team with needs in goal might be willing to give him some playing time. With Vokoun signing in Pittsburgh, TB trading for Lindback, and Harding re-signing in Minny, the options for a secondary goalie are diminishing. This could cause a few teams to turn to Bob. Alone, I don't think he will command much in return, but he could be part of a bigger deal.
Draft - It is being widely reported that the Flyers are looking to move up in the draft, probably into the top 10. I am ignorant of the prospects this year, though word is that it's generally not a very good draft class this year. The only thing I'll say here, is that an asset traded to move up in the draft is an asset that cannot be used in a trade to strengthen the roster this year.
Suter - I think the Flyers would still love to have Suter, and they will make him an offer, but all the signs and buzz point to him going elsewhere. I still say Detroit.
Weber - I'm still holding out hope that the Flyers could land Weber this offseason. There are trade packages the Flyers can create out that Nashville should be receptive to, but if Suter walks away, they will pull out all the stops to get Weber signed long term. Really the only hope is here that Weber simply refuses to sign long term despite Nashville throwing big dollars at him, and Nashville decides to get what it can for him before he becomes a UFA next offseason.
Nash - The reports of the Flyers interest in Nash simply won't die, which speaks volumes. There's not much more to say here, other than DON'T TRADE COOTER, period. The smart money says the Rangers, who have the best assets for Columbus and the will to get it done.
Parise - If the Flyers don't end up with Nash, reports have floated around of the Flyers have big time interest in Parise, who will be a UFA. I thought Parise looked excellent in the playoffs this year, and there will be a bidding war for him this offseason. He has stated his preference for staying in NJ, but the Devils are in dire financial straits and may not be able to keep close to market rates. Parise has also stated he would never sign with the Rangers out of respect for the Devils, and that may preclude other Atlantic division teams like the Flyers. Either way, he's a great player, but I'm not sure if the Flyers need another small forward..
Ryan - Rounding out the big name wings, Bobby Ryan is back on the trade market. A top-notch young power winger, Anaheim will be asking for A LOT. I am doubtful the Flyers can, or should, meet Anaheim's asking price, despite Ryan being a local kid with longtime ties to the Flyers organization.
Briere - Another under-the-radar item, Briere is a longshot for a trade, and the Flyers may have already received offers for him. Briere is 34 and has 3 years left at a cap hit of $6.5 million, however he is only actually due to be paid $12 (7, 3, 2) million over that span. Therefore, smaller market teams who have plenty of cap space see a $4m actual commitment to Briere, not a $6.5m cap commitment. Briere's regular seasons with the Flyers have been hit-and-miss, but he's been a huge playoff performer. He also has a NMC clause. In my opinion, the Flyers can only even consider this if they think Schenn and Cooter are both ready for prime time.
Rob Zombie - Rob Zombie reportedly wants to write and direct a movie about the 1974 Flyers. Wow.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Monday, June 11, 2012
Offseason Preparations
I've had my little break, and the dust has settled after the playoff exit. Offseason grumblings are beginning to trickle out, so I'd like to make sense of it all.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Starting with the least speculative news, multiple reports last week indicated Jagr's first choice is to indeed resign with the Flyers, despite the indications that he was ready to move on fresh off the playoff loss. Talks with the Flyers are said to be progressing, with one rumor on twitter saying that an agreement is already reached.
Additionally, claims are that the Flyers will resign Carle too, at slightly below market rate. The twist to all this that the Flyers don't have the "tagging space" to sign them yet (basically, your payroll next year can't exceed this year's cap). As a result, the cap will rise to $70.3 million on July 1, and the Flyers will be free to sign these guys then. By that time however, Carle will officially be a free agent, and I still think someone throws $5+ million at him. Could that throw a wrench in the Flyers plans?
Either way, let's assume these signings both happen. Now I have heard NOTHING about Voracek resigning, but let's plug that in too. You get this picture.
*This is without the "bonus cushion." This means that for players like Schenn, his cap hit will be the full $3.11m until he misses a bonus benchmark. This will happen soon, but even so, this is the limit with which the Flyers must comply on opening day. If there is the "bonus cushion" this season, the Flyers can exceed the cap by such a bonus, but would be penalized if the players ultimately earned the bonus and send the Flyers over the cap.
Now ignore the lines, and I had to guess at contract values for Jagr, Voracek and Carle, but this should be more or less accurate. The main takeaway is that, making no other changes, merely resigning these guys leaves little cap space for other signings. This leaves the possibility of a plain vanilla offseason of resignings only, with no other acquisitions of note.
The Flyers rarely stand pat though, often pulling off trades at the draft. I'm not going to speculate on roster depth maneuvers, but there could be a few big pieces in play.
JVR-Nash Rumors
For one, Howard Eskin dropped this nugget yesterday; JVR is delaying having surgery, which could hold up a trade for Nash because the Flyers can't trade him if he isn't healthy. Now Eskin knows nothing about hockey in terms of analysis, but his information is good. He usually only says something about the Flyers when he gets good info.
JVR was on the Flyers post-season surgery list, and unusually (but not shockingly), he has not had the surgery yet. The Flyers have already denied the insinuation that there is any intent on the part of JVR to delay his surgery, and that does seem like a bombastic accusation.
Putting aside the question of intent by JVR, but taking the underlying issue of his health holding up a trade as true, this transaction would return to a few themes. Go back to the trade deadline, and the Flyers were players for Nash. It was left at, and I quote Darren Dreger, "Price too high for Flyers(at moment) for Nash. May re-engage later. JVR,Bobrovski, Schenn or Couturier believed to be part of asking price." Also, this would be the second time a JVR injury is seen as holding up a deal, as he was out with a concussion in February when the Luke Schenn trade rumors were everywhere.
I've already evaluated a JVR-Nash trade, but my stance remains the same---JVR will never be the player Nash is, but Nash's best days are behind him. JVR and Bob I'd be happy to trade, but I would not include Schenn or Cooter in the trade for a diminishing star with a big cap hit like Nash. We'll see if there's anything to this.
Nashville Defensemen
Putting aside Nash, the Flyers real need is top-end defensemen. The two names being thrown around are Suter and Tobias Enstrom. Enstrom is basically a younger Timonen, but he has one year left on his contract (at a low cap it), and would require a trade to acquire. Suter will be a free agent on July 1, and Nashville is trying hard to resign him.
I've seen reports that the Suter doesn't want to sign with the Flyers, but even assuming those are incorrect, I doubt we'll see this signing. For one, Nashville has the cap space and will pull out all the stops to keep him. Second, everyone knows Detroit wants him, and Detroit has just seen Lidstrom retire and is letting Stuart go. I think Suter stays in Nashville or goes to Detroit.
This situation creates a second domino--Shea Weber. He is my grand hope for the Flyers this offseason. A full-on replacement for Chris Pronger. Weber is a restricted free agent, so practically this means a trade. JVR again? (A JVR+Mesz+picks seems to be a popular rumor. I'd take that trade FWIW.) The wrinkle here is that Weber and Suter are the spine of Nashville's team, and despite their limited budget, I can't see any way they let both Weber and Suter go. Despite my fantasies, I think the most likely scenario is Suter to Detroit, Weber staying in Nashville.
Bobrovsky
Getting back to Bobrovsky, the Flyers could try to save some cap space but getting a cheaper backup. Bob's future prospects in Philadelphia are waning, though I was an advocate of trading him last offseason. I don't think Bob has nearly as much trading value as Flyers fans like to believe, but the time might be right to trade him anyway and bring in an experienced number 2.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Carter and Richards Play for the Cup
It is a perfect nightmare for many Flyers fans to see players that the Flyers happily casted off have a chance to win the cup elsewhere just one year later. Rationally, the fact that Richards and Carter ended up in the same place and now may win the cup before the Flyers says absolutely nothing at all about the wisdom of the big trades last summer, however.
I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team. That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok. It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that. The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership. That trade's success remains less clear.
Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3
34 and 44 points? Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.
So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3
I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs. He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way. This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).
Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game). His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track. Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game). He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games. Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.
I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade. They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.
Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified. I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.
I think some Flyers fans are getting carried away in criticizing Richards and Carter, acting as if they were a cancer on the team. That is gossip, conjecture, and revisionist history run amok. It seems to me that the Carter trade was a simple hockey trade, and a very good one at that. The Richards trade was a little less straightforward, but seemed to be a personality makeover to team leadership. That trade's success remains less clear.
Before saying anything else, you need to take a step back and look at how Carter and Richards actually performed this season.
Carter: 55gp (for CLB and LA), 21 goals, 13 assists, -13.
Richards: 74 gp, 18 goals, 26 assists, +3
34 and 44 points? Flyers fans would be going batshit crazy if those players stayed on the Flyers squad this year and produced those numbers.
So what about the playoffs?
Carter: 14gp, 4 goals, 5 assists, +2
Richards: 14gp, 4 goals, 7 assists, +3
I think the Kings are pretty satisfied with what they are getting from Richards these playoffs. He's playing in a mostly defensive role, and chipping in some points along the way. This is more or less what he did with the Flyers, and his points/game is nearly identical as his time in Philly (with Flyers 50/63=0.794, with Kings 11/14=0.786).
Regarding Carter, a big knock on him in Philly were his playoff disappearances (21/47=0.447 points/game). His 9 points in the 14 games seem to imply a different level in performance, though that number is inflated by a relatively unimpressive hat track. Take away that one game, and he has a line of 1 goal, 5 assists in the 13 games (0.462 points/game). He has actually gone pointless in 9 of 14 playoff games. Again, this is pretty much a repeat of his playoff MO in Philly for which he was heavily criticized.
I think the takeaway here is that there's no reason to get bent out of shape that the Richards and Carter have a chance to win it all elsewhere so soon after the trade. They didn't destroy the franchise here, and they haven't magically become brave playoff heroes elsewhere.
Flyers fans are free to root for or against them in the finals, but bitterness towards the pair on the grounds that they sabotaged the Flyers and ran off to play better in another city, isn't really justified. I'm still happy with the trades, as I was last summer.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
The Offseason Plan
THE SETUP
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Here is my best guess as to what the Flyers base lineup will be.
Notes to this chart
-Nearly all of these salary numbers are final, except for Bourdon and Voracek. They are RFAs, and I have guessed at salaries for them
-Pronger, Kubina, Carle and Jagr are not in this lineup.
-A salary cap of $69 million, which is a number that has been thrown around. Obviously with the CBA expiring things could get interesting regarding the cap.
THE ISSUES
-Is Jagr coming back?
That is the first question to answer. If the season ended in January, I would say definitely. He looked tired and beat up as the season carried on though, and his role was reduced. Jagr loved everything about playing for the Flyers this year, and he sounds like he wants one more year in the NHL, but he won't sign here unless he feels he will get significant minutes. He signed with the Flyers against expectations last year because he thought it was a good "hockey fit", and he will leave if that "hockey fit" no longer applies.
-The Defense
By signing Grossmann to an extension, the Flyers took care of their top offseason priority in April. That seems like a decent contract, provided his knees hold up. The Flyers still need help back here though, with Pronger seemingly done, and Timonen is at the end of his career, undersized, and has not survived an 82 game season without sustaining performance-inhibiting injuries the last 2 seasons.
I don't think Carle will be back, because someone will be willing to give him $5m+ a year for several years, and I don't think the Flyers should be that team. You never know though with the way Clarke is talking. There's also a (very) small chance Timonen could retire, freeing up his $6.3m salary, and the Flyers could chase Suter for big money.
Lastly, I've seen spitballing the Flyers could trade for someone like Weber, would involve trading significant assets. Such a move fits the Flyers MO, and while it would hurt to trade away more picks and young forwards, a defense corps with Coburn, Carle and Weber could be rock solid for several years. So many variables to that though...
-Size up front
The Flyers score a ton of goals, but their forward corps is small and not very physical. A big body for the 2/3rd line (who plays big) would balance the roster.
-Goaltending
Nothing to discuss here really. Bryzgalov did not have a good year overall, but I expect improvement next year now that he knows what to expect in Philly. His instincts with the media are wrong for the town, but he's figuring it out.
If you recall, at the end of February, Bryzgalov made comments about "finding the peace in his soul" to play in this city. Most commented that this was a very troubling sign reflecting a discouraged player, and I said it was a good sign. For the record, on the day of that comment, Bryzgalov's save percentage stood at .898. After that comment, he had a spectacular month of March and had a .929 save percentage for the remainder of the season. He will still makes gaffes, but now he knows the lay of the land in Philly and will be better for it.
THE PLAN
There are a ton of ways you could go, but this is what I would do:
-Trade JVR, preferably for an up-and-coming dman. I'm not sure what the trade value of JVR is right now, and if it's diminished in the last few months, but surely the Flyers could make a "hockey trade" for a talented young defenseman whose career is also experiencing less than an exponential growth. Personally, I don't see JVR as a player who will ever consistently perform at all-star level, and the team needs defense more than another skating forward.
JVR could also be the centerpiece of a larger deal for a prominent defensemen.
-Sign a rugged 2/3 line winger to fill JVR's now vacant spot in the top nine. Unfortunately there aren't many such candidates out there on the UFA market, though Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Paul Gaustad, Dustin Penner, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Travis Moen and Daniel Winnik might be worth looking into.
-If you can skillfully pull these two things off, the Flyers will still have $3-7 million in cap space to play with, allowing for other signings or taking salary in a trade that could further bolster the defense.
-Make an executive order for system adjustments. I've been beating this drum for a few months. I was really hoping that, as a silver lining to a deep Flyers cup run, would be to buck the trend of tight defense in the NHL today. Alas, look at the teams left in the playoffs; LA (2nd in goals against, and they eliminated VAN and STL who were 4th and 1st respectively), Phoenix (5th), NY (3rd), NJ (9th) and the Caps, who are 21st but only because they started a season with a different coach. Clutch-and-grab is creeping back into the game.
I also believe Bryzgalov will look like a different goalie in a defense-first scheme. This is how he did it in PHX, and his clear weaknesses are side-to-side movement and shot recovery. Defense-first is the way the wind is blowing, and could maximize the talent the Flyers have. Can Lavy make that adjustment? If the team is still leaking goals and looking unspectacular in December, his seat will begin to get hot.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Season Review
All playoff exits feel disappointing. Through the ups and downs, fans always convince themselves that their team can win any series. The Flyers flame-out was sudden, but in the long view, it makes a little more sense.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
At no point this season did I think the Flyers were really primed for a serious cup run. They were too young up front, having traded away their core forwards. Then things started going pretty well, but Pronger went down. Without Pronger, I thought a long playoff run was precluded.
The Flyers defensive and goaltending struggles reinforced that perception, until March shutouts made me begin to think I could be wrong. The defense showed hope, and they could score whenever they needed to. Eventually however, the gas tank ran dry and ingrained problems caught up to them.
It was a memorable and exciting season, and I could not label this team as underachievers. That's pretty much all you can ask for as a fan.
PLAYER REVIEWS
Forwards:
-Giroux. The burden fell to him to step up with Carter and Richards gone, and he responded with an MVP caliber season that Richards or Carter never produced.
-Briere. A very poor regular season, largely saved by 8 playoff goals. His overall game never really fired on all cylinders though, even in the playoffs.
-Voracek. His 49 points is not all that impressive, but he was a valuable player for the Flyers, and I certainly didn't see anything like conditioning or effort issues that his old CBJ coach criticized him for on the way out. He may never break 25 goals or 65 points, but I could see him being a winger on a quality top line.
-Hartnell. A quiet playoffs shouldn't dilute a career year, and I think he was playing hurt anyway. Consistently energetic, physical, and showed a finishing touch I didn't think he had. All this after a pre-season lost to health concerns and a terrible start.
-Jagr. 54 points in 73 games, veteran leadership, and the self-proclaimed "most enjoyable year" of his career. That qualifies as a success. Jagr did have some nagging groin issues, and his energy level fluctuated throughout the year, so it remains to be seen if he will be back.
-Schenn. 18 points in 54 games is an unimpressive line, but he improved as the season wore on, and I'd go so far as to say he was the Flyers' best player in game 1 of the Pittsburgh series. I expect him to take the next step in his career next year.
-Read. He turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league. 24 goals, played everywhere on the front line, and in all situations. Pretty much ideal.
-Simmonds. Almost doubled his career high in goals, largely due to 11 PP goals. He looks to be a streaky scorer going forward, as he battles and puts himself in good positions but doesn't have very soft hands, his physical initiative will make him a fan favorite.
-Talbot. Gave the Flyers everything they could hope for. A lunchpail player and team guy, he went from 8 goals last season with Pittsburgh to 19 this year, and he and Giroux were lethal shorthanded in the playoffs.
-Couturier. Surpassed all expectations this season, with 13 goals and logged big minutes in the playoffs. Remarkable for an 18 year old, I could not identify any clear deficiencies in his game. What a draft day steal, he could be a key player for the Flyers for a long time.
-Wellwood. Nothing spectacular, but a young, speedy player that should be an asset for bottom lines and depth next year.
-Rinaldo. Did all that could be asked of him. Not a high skill guy, he successfully brought a lot of energy and spark to the Flyers. He will have to continue to work on his discipline, though in his defense, he is clearly targeted by the officials and is on the short end of a lot of marginal calls.
-JVR. I think JVR had a very disappointing season. Yes, he had injuries, and his point production was decent before all the injuries. Still, I wrote that his early stat line flattered his play even before all the injuries, and there's no escaping the reality of the 11g, 13a, 43gp for a player who was supposed to score 30+ goals this year. He was very good in game 1 against NJ, but did little else in that series.
-Shelley. Yes, he is still on this team.
Defense:
-Timonen. Another year of wear and tear on Timonen's body, he still was able to be the Flyers top defensemen this year. Injuries severely limited him in the playoffs.
-Meszaros. Was inconsistent all year, never finding the form he had most of last season. Then his season was cut short by an injury. Maybe next year will be a bounce back season.
-Coburn. Unremarkable regular season, but logged huge minutes in the playoffs.
-Grossmann. The strong, defense-first, shot-blocking defenseman the team needed. He has bad knees though, so let's hope they hold up.
-Carle. The team's de facto number 1 defensemen this year, covering a lot of territory and eating minutes. A very good chance that his time as a Flyers is over, however.
-Kubina. He could not provide the reliable veteran presence the team was looking for---too old and slow, and picked up some injuries too. Little chance of him returning.
-Pronger. His season never really started, and his career may be over. It's a shame his time with the Flyers was so short-lived.
-Gustafsson. He really made some nice strides this season, though he could struggle at times. Skilled and smart, but undersized. It will be interesting to see what he can do next year in extended time.
-Bourdon. Another pleasant surprise, as his career seemed to have stalled in the minors. Looks like he might have an NHL future yet.
-Lilja. Seldom used in the regular season, played decently in the playoffs. Too old and slow to play a significant role.
Goalies:
-Bryzgalov. Things did not go as planned, though he was amazing in March. Too inconsistent and gaffe prone, but on and off the ice. Seemingly has some growing up to do, though a full season in Philly under his belt will help. Expectations will remain high with his 9 year contract. I am optimistic.
-Bobrovsky. Started the season strong, but on the whole did not take the next step in his career this year. Now heading into the last year of his contract with the Flyers.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Devils Game 5 Review
And now it's official. The Flyers death march concluded last night, in a game that looked pretty much like the previous 3. I'll save my broader comments on the season for another post, but it was disappointing to see the Flyers fall so flatly this round.
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
I always had deep doubts about the transferability of the Penguins result. As I have said previously, that was a series of passion and the Flyers should simply forget it ever happened. The Penguins are a better team than the Devils, but the Penguins-Flyers series was a rivalry that created a unique series that was an exception to what was happening around the league.
While a letdown is not surprising, an effective collapse by the Flyers was. Twice in six regular season meetings the Devils handily controlled the Flyers, but to do it 4 times in a row? I did not imagine that could happen.
It's most disappointing to me that the Flyers completely failed to adjust to the Devils game plan. By game 5, they clearly had no ideas, and the Devils continued to own the puck, control the center of the ice, and dominate on the boards. At this point, I'm not sure how blame much falls on the players, and how much falls on the coaches.
The Devils forecheck continued to bedevil the Flyers (har har har), but the domination went beyond that. For instance, the Flyers PP, which utterly demolished the Penguins, was 3/19 against the Devils. That has nothing to do with the Devils even strength forecheck. Furthermore, in this series with a 3rd period lead, the Devils would change their forecheck and play more of a trap. The Flyers could not beat that either, as evidenced by their feeble 3rd period effort last night with their season on the line and nothing to lose.
At least with the Flyers out, I am free to cancel cable for the summer...
Notes:
-Spare me the finger pointing at Bryzgalov. There is no defending the game winning goal last night, but on the whole, he was the Flyers best player this series by a large margin. He didn't singlehandedly win a game, but the Devils were the far superior team in games 2 and 4 and Bryz played excellent games to keep the result in doubt until the 3rd period.
I'm pretty sure all hockey writers have a pre-written template for an article "Goaltending Fails the Flyers Again" with blank spaces for the name of the goalie. Those articles will pop up again. Ignore them. And before you say good goalies simply don't do what Bryz did last night, consider that Brodeur directly caused a goal in game 1 by passing the puck right up the center of the ice where Schenn intercepted it, and again turned over the puck to Schenn last night while still behind the goal, but Briere hit the post on a wide open net. The only difference between Bryzgalov's turnover and Brodeur's last night was luck.
-Rinaldo instantly made his presence felt this game, sparking the Flyers physical game early with a devastating hit on Volchenkov. As the game carried on, Rinaldo became irrelevant however, and he took a bad penalty.
-Another disappointing night for JVR, topped off with a particularly bad sequence. He had the puck with time and space behind the Devils net, but was stripped of the puck, and took a terrible offensive zone penalty while trying to backcheck. Kovalchuck would ice the series 4 seconds into that PP.
-Good for Talbot last night, as he was one of the few flyers that was johnny-on-the-spot on the puck, and his forechecking in the corner started a sequence of events that he would also finish to score the game's first goal.
-The team that scored first was 0-5 this series. The team that scored first was 1-5 last series. Hard to believe...
-Brief playoff performance recaps;
-Thumbs up: Briere (8 goals and 13 points), Giroux (17 points), Voracek (10 points), Schenn (9 points), Talbot (6 points, best +/- on team), Couturier, Coburn (played huge minutes), Grossmann (until getting injured), Gustafsson
-Thumbs down: Carle, Simmonds, Read (didn't get much ice time), JVR, Kubina (injured? either way wasn't there for the team)
-Meh: Hartnell (injured?), Jagr (injured?), Timonen (injured?), Bryzgalov, Lilja, Wellwood, Rinaldo
Monday, May 7, 2012
Devils Game 4 Review
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Flyers may not be officially eliminated, but it would take a miracle. 3-1 comebacks are quite rare, and the Devils dominated game 2 and 4. It's very hard to envision the Flyers mounting any comeback of consequence. Maybe I'll give them a 1-in-3 chance of winning game 5, mainly because I have tickets to the game and I don't want to feel like I wasted my money.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
The Devils have completely swarmed the Flyers. Game 1 started off this way, but everyone wrote it off due the Devils being sharp and the Flyers waking up from the week-long layoff. Instead, that trend has accelerated.
I feel like there's a "chicken and the egg" scenario at play. The Devils forecheck has overwhelmed the Flyers, and now they look confused and are being completely outskated. Which came first? The overwhelming forecheck making the Flyers look slow, or the Flyers simply didn't have jump which allowed the Devils to forecheck so effectively?
I think it's probably the tactics. The Flyers forwards try to leave the zone so quickly, as they have all year, but the Devils have successfully pressured the Flyers defensemen. Without the time or ability to find the forwards, the defensemen keep playing the puck to empty space, and the Devils get there first.
At the same time, I don't discount the Flyers mental let-down from beating Pittsburgh. They put so much energy and passion into this series, it was like they couldn't get up for this series mentally. The situation was ripe for a letdown, and the Flyers fan base was certainly lulled into a false sense of security--"we killed the mighty Pens, so we'll crush the Devils easily." Admittedly, I didn't think a letdown would become a total disintegration like we are seeing though.
The Flyers look confused and tentative, and Laviolette probably does not have some magic elixir up his sleeve. The Devils might put them out of their misery pretty quick.
Notes:
-An up and down night for Giroux. He scored a nice shorthanded goal, allaying my fears that the rumors of his bad groin would prevent him from bursts of speed. After scoring however, he was more interested in barking at the ref than anything else. It was a bad sign, indicating his emotions were getting away from him.
Later, after the officials blew a call on Brodeur for playing the puck outside the trapezoid, Giroux again assailed the officials, then took out his frustration with a dirty check to Zubrus's head. This was pretty much the type of headshot for which I roasted Malkin and Neal. Late, opportunistic headhunting. If it was my NHL, Giroux would be suspended. As it is, given that Giroux didn't make an egregiously illegal hit by leaving his feet or throwing an elbow, has no prior history, and Zubrus wasn't hurt, I suspect all we'll see is a fine.
-Speaking of Brodeur, his special treatment from the refs continues. The interference call on Hartnell was blatantly wrong, as Hartnell was clearly checked into him, and at mild contact Brodeur wildly kicked his legs and threw his arms around. He also dodged a penalty for handling the puck. That's 3 games in a row where Brodeur has drawn a penalty on the Flyers when there simply wasn't much (or anything at all) there. [JVR called for slashing in Game 2 when going for a loose puck, Schenn makes slight skate-to-skate contact and Broduer flops in game 3].
-The Flyers' lines are all mixed up. Couturier played, but barely. This broke up his checking line with Wellwood and Talbot, so Wellwood also barely played. I do support Laviolette's decision to break up the Jagr-Giroux-Hartnell. Whether it's injuries or whatever, their not playing well individually or collectively.
-Regarding Bryzgalov, anyone who tries to pin this debacle on the goaltending is an idiot. The Flyers were dominated in games 2 and 4, but the game was close to the end because of Bryzgalov. I don't like how he threw up his hands after the Devils' 3rd goal last night though, even if it was shockingly bad coverage. For once the Flyers can reflect on their playoff run and don't need to ask themselves how they were sabotaged by goaltending.
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