Earlier this year, Bryz commented that he was "lost in the woods." In light of his recent musings on 24/7, clearly he is more like a lost space cadet.
Another frustrating loss with some questionable goals, and Flyers fans are freaking out. Clearly the franchise is ruined by Bryzgalov's eternal contract.
Kidding aside, there is no getting around the fact that Bryzgalov is not playing well. He put together a long win streak, but has looked very shoddy in the last few losses. He continues to be plagued by deflections, but at some point he (and the team) has to adjust and not just lament bad luck.
The numbers don't lie. With 14 wins, Bryzgalov is 15th in the NHL, but of those goalies, only Craig Anderson on a terrible Ottawa team is even close to his GAA (3.01) and save percentage (.890). The Flyers signed Bryzgalov to be a Vezina candidate, and at worst, a top 10 goalie in the league. He's nowhere close right now. I previously noted how Bryzgalov was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year in Phoenix. This year? 16% (4/25). He can play much better, and he knows it.
He still needs to figure out how to excel on this team. Maybe you can understand why the Flyers tried to muzzle him early this year, as it looks like he might need to refocus. He's obviously a strange cat, but regardless of anyone's personality, you can succeed. He has to start showing some serious competitiveness to get through this though.
It's too early to jump off the bridge on Bryzgalov, his contract, and incite a good old Flyers goalie controversy, but I do think it's time to give Bob a run of starts.
Opinions on NHL topics of the moment, but mostly on the Flyers.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Friday, December 16, 2011
Major Headaches
A lot has changed quickly in the current concussion storyline. A week ago, I probably would've posted somewhat lightheartedly about the Flyers concussion disclosure history--trying to explain away injuries as neck soreness, dehydration, and now with Pronger, a mystery virus. It's not that Pronger's and Giroux's uncertain issues weren't serious, but there was the expectation that they'd be back sooner or later.
All that has changed. Pronger has now been diagnosed with severe post concussion syndrome, and is out for the season. And in direct contradiction of his previous statements, Holmgren discloses that Giroux's symptoms have actually been getting worse every day.
For the wins to keep on coming, several players will have to contribute to the best of their abilities. The current winning streak is largely thanks to goal scoring streaks from Hartnell and Simmonds, quality goaltending from Bryz and Bob, and quality playmaking from Jagr and Voracek. (Take note Flyers fans, but with Giroux out of the lineup, Hartnell is the team's leading scorer!) The Flyers have also gotten some bounces, and understandably, the Caps more or less gave up the other night when they conceded the second goal of the game to Bourdon from Rinaldo and Shelley.
What to do about Pronger
Tangibly, Pronger brought three things to the Flyers; veteran leadership, defensive anchoring, and a power play presence. As the Flyers try to fill those holes, it would be impossible to do all three in one player, and even getting two would be a stretch. I think the Flyers will not even try to fill the leadership void from the outside, and focus on the defensive and power play shortcomings.
First you have to assess the cap space. Presuming the Flyers approach the stretch with the following lineup, my math says they would be spending $60.08 against the cap;
On the power play end of things, a guy like Bryan McCabe is unsigned, and might sign for very little ($1 million?). He's a flawed player, but a PP specialist. I also saw Marc Crawford suggest the Flyers trade for Sergie Gonchar this morning, possibly shipping out Schenn, but I'm not crazy about trading Schenn before he's ever had a chance with this team for a 37 year old defensemen signed for $5.5 this year and next.
It's also a little early for teams to decide they are going to be sellers, and looking to unload their pending UFAs, so it's hard to speculate what else is available by trade.
Long story short, the Flyers have a few million dollars to plug holes, but they have to decide if they are willling to trade picks and prospects, and which need is more pressing--PP or defensive help. The most likely scenario is a trade for defensive defensemen I think.
All that has changed. Pronger has now been diagnosed with severe post concussion syndrome, and is out for the season. And in direct contradiction of his previous statements, Holmgren discloses that Giroux's symptoms have actually been getting worse every day.
Holmgren on December 12: "Claude is continuing to feel better"While the Flyers continue to pile up wins on the ice and sit in first place, the season is in a very delicate place. The Flyers aren't the only ones with concussion issues, as recent names added to the concussion casualty list include Sidney Crosby (the best player in the league), Jeff Skinner (reigning rookie of the year), and Milan Michalek (NHL leading goal scorer).
Holmgren on December 13: "Claude reported not feeling very good today. Over the past few days, his symptoms have gradually gotten worse. He will be out indefinitely with a concussion."
For the wins to keep on coming, several players will have to contribute to the best of their abilities. The current winning streak is largely thanks to goal scoring streaks from Hartnell and Simmonds, quality goaltending from Bryz and Bob, and quality playmaking from Jagr and Voracek. (Take note Flyers fans, but with Giroux out of the lineup, Hartnell is the team's leading scorer!) The Flyers have also gotten some bounces, and understandably, the Caps more or less gave up the other night when they conceded the second goal of the game to Bourdon from Rinaldo and Shelley.
What to do about Pronger
Tangibly, Pronger brought three things to the Flyers; veteran leadership, defensive anchoring, and a power play presence. As the Flyers try to fill those holes, it would be impossible to do all three in one player, and even getting two would be a stretch. I think the Flyers will not even try to fill the leadership void from the outside, and focus on the defensive and power play shortcomings.
First you have to assess the cap space. Presuming the Flyers approach the stretch with the following lineup, my math says they would be spending $60.08 against the cap;
Hartnell Giroux Jagr Meszaros Carle BryzgalovThat leaves the Flyers with just over $4 million to play with in cap space, assuming they don't cut or trade away anyone.
Simmonds Briere Read Timonen Coburn Bobrovsky
Voracek Talbot JVR Bourdon Lilja
Harry Z Cooter Schenn Gustafsson
Rinaldo Shelley
On the power play end of things, a guy like Bryan McCabe is unsigned, and might sign for very little ($1 million?). He's a flawed player, but a PP specialist. I also saw Marc Crawford suggest the Flyers trade for Sergie Gonchar this morning, possibly shipping out Schenn, but I'm not crazy about trading Schenn before he's ever had a chance with this team for a 37 year old defensemen signed for $5.5 this year and next.
It's also a little early for teams to decide they are going to be sellers, and looking to unload their pending UFAs, so it's hard to speculate what else is available by trade.
Long story short, the Flyers have a few million dollars to plug holes, but they have to decide if they are willling to trade picks and prospects, and which need is more pressing--PP or defensive help. The most likely scenario is a trade for defensive defensemen I think.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Realignment Proposal
Last night, by a vote of 26-4 the NHL Board of Governors approved a proposal to reformat the NHL into 4 conferences. It is as follows:
The Flyers conference is essentially the same as their old division, except the Caps and Canes are added to the mix. It doesn't seem like much change, but there are two key changes in this format.
One, for regular season play, you have a home and home with every out-of-conference team. That means every team in league will visit Philadelphia, which is fun for the fans to see every team. The flip side of that is that the Flyers will only play teams which they have out of division testy relationships, like the Sabres or Leafs. twice a year; the same amount they will see a team like the Calgary Flames
The second key point is that the first two rounds of playoffs will be within conference, seeded 1-4. The Flyers will see a team like Pens in the playoffs A LOT. After the first two rounds, the teams are re-seeded based on points for the last two rounds.
It will be interesting to see how the balance plays out, as it seems some conferences should be perennially stronger than others. Based on last year's standings, this is how the playoffs would've looked and may have gone:
Not shockingly different, for this season anyway. 15 out of the 16 teams would've maintained their playoff position, with LA losing out to Dallas as a result of the realignment.
This system is what it is, some positives some negatives. My biggest concern is the strong possibility of seeing the same playoff matchups over and over and over. Detroit and Chicago is all well and good, but what if they play each other 5 or 6 years in a row?
Back to the Flyers
Sometimes a team needs a few breaks to get them going, after which time they will make their own breaks. The game against the Ducks is such an example. The Flyers were simply playing poorly. Maybe it was the layoff between games, but the Flyers looked slow and out of sorts. Fortunately the Ducks just kept getting penalties and eventually the Flyers broke through. Timonen made a few great plays, the Flyers scored on a long 5-on-3, and got the game-winner on a 4 minute OT 4-on-3 PP. Once the good vibes started, the Flyers carried it over and whipped the Coyotes the next night. The absence of Pronger will hurt (especially on the PP, despite the last two games), but it's time the Flyers start evening out their play this season.
Schenn also looks to me to be playing with more confidence. He's clearly a smooth puck handler, and will excel with the puck on his stick. For that reason, the Flyers may to do well to put him at center. His stat line currently stands at 6 game played, 0 points, -6. He was killing it in the AHL so there's no reason to send him back, and the points will come, but I'd put him in the center with a skill winger. JVR maybe.
The Flyers conference is essentially the same as their old division, except the Caps and Canes are added to the mix. It doesn't seem like much change, but there are two key changes in this format.
One, for regular season play, you have a home and home with every out-of-conference team. That means every team in league will visit Philadelphia, which is fun for the fans to see every team. The flip side of that is that the Flyers will only play teams which they have out of division testy relationships, like the Sabres or Leafs. twice a year; the same amount they will see a team like the Calgary Flames
The second key point is that the first two rounds of playoffs will be within conference, seeded 1-4. The Flyers will see a team like Pens in the playoffs A LOT. After the first two rounds, the teams are re-seeded based on points for the last two rounds.
It will be interesting to see how the balance plays out, as it seems some conferences should be perennially stronger than others. Based on last year's standings, this is how the playoffs would've looked and may have gone:
Round 1: Caps v. Rangers, Philly v. Pittsburgh, Boston v. Buffalo, TB v. Montreal, Vancouver v. Phoenix, SJ v. Anaheim, Detroit v. Dallas, Nashville v. Chicago
Round 2: Philly v. Rangers, Boston v. TB, Vancouver v. SJ, Detroit v. Chicago
Round 3: Vancouver v. Boston, Philly v. Detroit
Round 4: Boston v. Detroit
Not shockingly different, for this season anyway. 15 out of the 16 teams would've maintained their playoff position, with LA losing out to Dallas as a result of the realignment.
This system is what it is, some positives some negatives. My biggest concern is the strong possibility of seeing the same playoff matchups over and over and over. Detroit and Chicago is all well and good, but what if they play each other 5 or 6 years in a row?
Back to the Flyers
Sometimes a team needs a few breaks to get them going, after which time they will make their own breaks. The game against the Ducks is such an example. The Flyers were simply playing poorly. Maybe it was the layoff between games, but the Flyers looked slow and out of sorts. Fortunately the Ducks just kept getting penalties and eventually the Flyers broke through. Timonen made a few great plays, the Flyers scored on a long 5-on-3, and got the game-winner on a 4 minute OT 4-on-3 PP. Once the good vibes started, the Flyers carried it over and whipped the Coyotes the next night. The absence of Pronger will hurt (especially on the PP, despite the last two games), but it's time the Flyers start evening out their play this season.
Schenn also looks to me to be playing with more confidence. He's clearly a smooth puck handler, and will excel with the puck on his stick. For that reason, the Flyers may to do well to put him at center. His stat line currently stands at 6 game played, 0 points, -6. He was killing it in the AHL so there's no reason to send him back, and the points will come, but I'd put him in the center with a skill winger. JVR maybe.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Monthly Update
Another month has passed, and things are more uncertain in Flyerdom. First the season numbers;
The real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery. Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health. Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs. This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again. I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.
Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr. Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue. Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury. There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous. Is Pronger's body breaking down? Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much. Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.
The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up. Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year. This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play. Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.
Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina. I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl. When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers. Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level. Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole. He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.
-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming. The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change. We now know it was the coach. The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked. Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there. It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though. Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring? They need defensemen.
I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there. I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened. Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers. Fortunately that will start tonight.
Goals - 3.48/game (1st, +1 spot from last month)Watching the Flyers, one wouldn't think they've tightened up defensively, but there's the numbers for goals against. Even with the improvement, they are still in the bottom half of the league. That's something that needs to be addressed, as they are still prone to look awful in their own end--it happened in the first period against the Islanders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league.
Goals against - 2.91/g (19th, +9)
Faceoffs - 46.9% (29th, even)
Power play - 17.6% (12th, -6)
Penalty kill - 83.5% (14th, +4)
Shots For - 31.5/g (8th, -2)
Shots Against - 28.7 (7th, -5)
The real story of late is Pronger's newest surgery. Putting aside the ridiculousness of the Flyers injuries reports and treatments, and that after missing a week with "a virus" he will have knee surgery, this is getting into scary territory with Pronger's health. Last year, he missed most of January, March, and the playoffs. This year, he missed training camp, and now is out again. I believe he is up to 5 surgeries since summer 2010.
Before the season I wrote that the Flyers should be concerned about relying on three, injury prone veterans; Pronger, Timonen and Jagr. Well here we are, with Pronger out for a month and Jagr with a groin issue. Timonen also will be forced to increase his minutes, raising his risk of injury. There's not really anything the Flyers can do about this now, but this should make all Flyers fans very nervous. Is Pronger's body breaking down? Repeated knee and back issues certainly suggest as much. Personally, I don't think the Flyers can make a playoff run with Pronger in and out of the lineup, so let's hope that's not the case.
The Flyers need Meszaros and Carle to step up. Actually, they need Meszaros just to return to his form last year. This year he has made a lot of coverage errors down low, though Meszaros has the combination of size and skill of a top pair defensemen if he can steady his play. Timonen is a wily player, but a 36 year old, 5'10" defensemen can only take so much abuse.
Other Notes
-Nodl was waived, then claimed by Carolina. I shed no tears, as I have pretty much run out of patience with Nodl. When he came up I was pretty impressed with his skating and defensive responsibility, which are often two big question marks with young scorers. Time, however, has shown that he can't score at the pro level. Aside from a good start last year, he has been a total offensive black hole. He was nothing more than an extra body for the Flyers forward corps, and with the emergence of Read, Couturier, Rinaldo, and Harry Z, he was spare parts.
-With the Ducks off to a terrible start, a change was coming. The only question was if the change would be a trade (likely Bobby Ryan) or a coaching change. We now know it was the coach. The Flyers' name always came up for Ryan, a player they've always liked. Former number 2 pick, from South Jersey with ties to the organization, power forward, 3 straight 30 goal season, still only 24...there's a lot to like there. It made little sense from an organizational standpoint though. Simply put, the Flyers are up against the cap--why would they add a big scorer salary (which would require other salary dumps to accommodate) when they have no problem scoring? They need defensemen.
I saw a rumor today on the internet (which may be completely false) that the Flyers had agreed to trade Schenn and 2 picks for Ryan, but Boudreau would only sign as a coach if Ryan was still there. I have my doubts about this whole scenario, but stranger things have happened. Presumably, the Ryan trade talk will cool down for everyone for a while, and I just want to see Schenn play for the Flyers. Fortunately that will start tonight.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Who is JVR?
A lot of Flyers have stepped up this season. Jagr has turned back the clock, Read and Couturier have turned a lot heads, and Giroux has raised his game to be among the league's best. A player who has not grabbed many people's attention is Van Riemsdyk.
Fair or not, Flyers fans have always saddled JVR with high hopes. This originally sprang from nothing more than his draft position. He has the unfortunate distinction of being the only very high pick the Flyers were awarded based on a bad season in a long time, and through cruel luck, the Flyers picked second despite having the worst record in the league. In the eyes of many fans he is always going to be judged against subjective judgments on what a #2 pick is "supposed to" be. Admittedly, he comes in the midst of a string of fantastic players that have emerged from that draft slot.
2000 - Dany Heatley
2001 - Jason Spezza
2002 - Kari Lehtonen
2003 - Eric Staal
2004 - Evgeni Malkin
2005 - Bobby Ryan
2006 - Jordan Staal
2007 - James Van Riemsdyk
2008 - Drew Doughty
2009 - Victor Hedman
Of course the 1990s draft gave us gems such as Pat Falloon, Andrei Zyuzin and David Legwand from the two slot. It's also entirely irrelevant. The Flyers could only draft players who were available in that particular draft, and it's not JVR's fault that there was no else better that year.
The full 2007 draft top-10;
1 - Patrick Kane
2 - JVR
3 - Kyle Turris
4 - Thomas Hickey
5 - Karl Alzner
6 - Sam Gagner
7 - Jakub Voracek
8 - Zach Hamill
9 - Logan Couture
10 - Keaton Ellerby
A few quality players in there, but it's not like there was a big star that is looming over JVR that the Flyers could've taken. It simple wasn't a good draft, which was just plain old bad luck for the Flyers.
Now he's got his shiny new $4.25x6 contract (that kicks in after this season), which means he will soon be paid like the go-to goal scorer he appeared to be in the playoffs. The Flyers took a chance with that contract based on very limited periods of dominant play, so has he played that way this season? 8g and 8a in 19 games is not bad at all. That pace equals about 34g and 34a for the season--a line people should be satisfied with from a guy whose career highs are 21g 19a.
The thing is, that current stat line flatters in his current play in my opinion. Many nights he is not very noticeable, and has been a complementary player to linemates that are making more happen. Also, he did not look good with Jagr and Giroux. Fans do not want to give Hartnell any credit and insist he's just an overpaid warm body for Giroux and Jagr, but the fact is Hartnell has been a very effective nuisance on that line. JVR really did very little on that line. This is also ironic because Hartnell's "overpriced" contract that is winding down is nearly identical to JVR's new contract (Hartnell-$4.2x6, JVR-$4.25x6).
Perhaps Laviolette can deploy him better. I, for one, don't like JVR at the point on the power play at all. He looks like an elite player when he is carrying the puck to the net, using his skating, stickhandling and big body in a combination that few NHL players have. He isn't going to excel dishing or slapping it from the perimeter.
On the bright side, last night was maybe his best game of the season. He used his size to protect the puck while skating around the outside. This was his key to success last year, particularly in the playoffs. If JVR hits 30 goals this year I will declare it a successful season for him and on track to earn his new contract, but the challenge for him will be consistency. He's been prone to lulls, though this is not uncommon for young players. If he keeps his play simple and focuses on what he does best, I think it will work out for him.
Fair or not, Flyers fans have always saddled JVR with high hopes. This originally sprang from nothing more than his draft position. He has the unfortunate distinction of being the only very high pick the Flyers were awarded based on a bad season in a long time, and through cruel luck, the Flyers picked second despite having the worst record in the league. In the eyes of many fans he is always going to be judged against subjective judgments on what a #2 pick is "supposed to" be. Admittedly, he comes in the midst of a string of fantastic players that have emerged from that draft slot.
2000 - Dany Heatley
2001 - Jason Spezza
2002 - Kari Lehtonen
2003 - Eric Staal
2004 - Evgeni Malkin
2005 - Bobby Ryan
2006 - Jordan Staal
2007 - James Van Riemsdyk
2008 - Drew Doughty
2009 - Victor Hedman
Of course the 1990s draft gave us gems such as Pat Falloon, Andrei Zyuzin and David Legwand from the two slot. It's also entirely irrelevant. The Flyers could only draft players who were available in that particular draft, and it's not JVR's fault that there was no else better that year.
The full 2007 draft top-10;
1 - Patrick Kane
2 - JVR
3 - Kyle Turris
4 - Thomas Hickey
5 - Karl Alzner
6 - Sam Gagner
7 - Jakub Voracek
8 - Zach Hamill
9 - Logan Couture
10 - Keaton Ellerby
A few quality players in there, but it's not like there was a big star that is looming over JVR that the Flyers could've taken. It simple wasn't a good draft, which was just plain old bad luck for the Flyers.
Now he's got his shiny new $4.25x6 contract (that kicks in after this season), which means he will soon be paid like the go-to goal scorer he appeared to be in the playoffs. The Flyers took a chance with that contract based on very limited periods of dominant play, so has he played that way this season? 8g and 8a in 19 games is not bad at all. That pace equals about 34g and 34a for the season--a line people should be satisfied with from a guy whose career highs are 21g 19a.
The thing is, that current stat line flatters in his current play in my opinion. Many nights he is not very noticeable, and has been a complementary player to linemates that are making more happen. Also, he did not look good with Jagr and Giroux. Fans do not want to give Hartnell any credit and insist he's just an overpaid warm body for Giroux and Jagr, but the fact is Hartnell has been a very effective nuisance on that line. JVR really did very little on that line. This is also ironic because Hartnell's "overpriced" contract that is winding down is nearly identical to JVR's new contract (Hartnell-$4.2x6, JVR-$4.25x6).
Perhaps Laviolette can deploy him better. I, for one, don't like JVR at the point on the power play at all. He looks like an elite player when he is carrying the puck to the net, using his skating, stickhandling and big body in a combination that few NHL players have. He isn't going to excel dishing or slapping it from the perimeter.
On the bright side, last night was maybe his best game of the season. He used his size to protect the puck while skating around the outside. This was his key to success last year, particularly in the playoffs. If JVR hits 30 goals this year I will declare it a successful season for him and on track to earn his new contract, but the challenge for him will be consistency. He's been prone to lulls, though this is not uncommon for young players. If he keeps his play simple and focuses on what he does best, I think it will work out for him.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Coyotes Rip Bryz
I was a little taken aback by these comments made on the radio by two of Bryzgalov's former teammates before last night's game.
Derek Morris:
Glad's he gone? Animosity? Wow.
Adrian Aucoin:
A second voice adding the animosity claim. Also, he implies that the players didn't want to play for Bryzgalov. Comments like this usually don't get thrown around even in the most acrimonious of breakups in the NHL, so it's very surprising here.
It doesn't take long to see that Bryzgalov is somewhat of a kooky character, although that's not unusual for goalies in the NHL. It's another thing, however, to say that Bryzgalov's attitude was detrimental to the team and you're glad to see him go. Even then, it's not like Eddie Belfour and Patrick Roy departed on good terms before winning cups elsewhere, and Hasek was criticized as too flaky to be trusted for a playoff team.
Honestly I did see a few inklings of Bryzgalov getting frustrated with his teammates after all those deflected goals, staring or visibly sighing at teammates who inadvertently deflected the puck past him. That's not a good habit. Still I think NHL players are willing to tolerate this in small amounts, and if Bryzgalov's play keeps up, no one will mind.
The only bummer is that Bryzgalov DID allow a stuffer/bad-angle goal, tarnishing what was otherwise maybe his sharpest game of the season.
Carter
Speaking of players, who in the words of Bryzgalov may be "lost in the woods", RDS reported that Carter wants out of Columbus. It was no secret how devastated Carter was to be traded last offseason, holing up in his Jersey Shore house until Columbus sent a delegation to talk to him. Columbus's embarrassing start to the season certainly wasn't going to help anything. But Carter has only played 8 games for Columbus! Eight!
Now the denials have already come out, notably from his agent. The sum of the evidence points the fact that Carter has not formally requested a trade, but the notion he wants out has not been disputed by any party, which is pretty embarrassing. Surely there is more to come on this story as the season progresses...
Derek Morris:
Q: What is this team's collective mindset as you take on your former goaltender?First of all we have to throw a lot of pucks at Bryz. He's known for letting in bad goals, you know, so I think our mindset is going to be get the puck down behind the net and hopefully he comes out and plays a few because he doesn't like to do that.
We have to put some pressure on Bryz. We've gotta make it a tough night, we gotta have guys in front, we've gotta be banging away at rebounds. He gets frustrated that way.
Q: I'm sure there will be some chirping involved, right?That's expected in every game. But it might go to the extreme today.
Q: There is a mental strength that is missing there, right?We're actually glad -- first of all, I'm glad he's gone because the guy we brought in has done a great job and fitted in real well, made our team even closer. There was some animosity there with Bryz sometimes. We don't have that with [Mike Smith] so we have a good group and we're winning games because of it.
Q: On using this game as motivation:It's gonna be great. You know Bryz will be just as prepared. Bryz is one of the best goalies in the game and when he wants to play, one of the best goalies you can have out there. We have a good goalie and a good system and we're going to do what we can to get pucks to the net. I think it's going to be an ugly goal from the side that'll go in on Bryz.
Glad's he gone? Animosity? Wow.
Adrian Aucoin:
Q: I actually used a quote of yours you gave to NHL.com about Mr. Bryzgalov -- it was more about Mike Smith, though, where you said he's more approachable. He's here everyday and I can get to know him as a teammate. Can you take that a little further? What did you mean specifically?We don't always try to win for the right reasons, but anybody who is a professional wants to win no matter what the situation is, who your teammates are, coaches are, how many fans you have there, anything. But it adds to your motivation when you have a good guy back there who you always want to do well for.
Q: Derek Morris just described the relationship between the room and Ilya last year as one with animosity. Is he right?Absolutely. I honestly haven't met almost any hockey player that's a bad person. I think he was different as a player -- obviously he was a great player -- more as a person. Sometimes he just did things that weren't very typical of hockey players or teammates but he's a good goalie.
Q: Is he misunderstood? Sometimes you look at a guy who's speaking a second language and go wait a minute. My take on it is that's an excuse, so I'm gonna say no, but I'm not his teammate. I was just watching.No, he's a pretty smart guy. He knew what he was saying.
A second voice adding the animosity claim. Also, he implies that the players didn't want to play for Bryzgalov. Comments like this usually don't get thrown around even in the most acrimonious of breakups in the NHL, so it's very surprising here.
It doesn't take long to see that Bryzgalov is somewhat of a kooky character, although that's not unusual for goalies in the NHL. It's another thing, however, to say that Bryzgalov's attitude was detrimental to the team and you're glad to see him go. Even then, it's not like Eddie Belfour and Patrick Roy departed on good terms before winning cups elsewhere, and Hasek was criticized as too flaky to be trusted for a playoff team.
Honestly I did see a few inklings of Bryzgalov getting frustrated with his teammates after all those deflected goals, staring or visibly sighing at teammates who inadvertently deflected the puck past him. That's not a good habit. Still I think NHL players are willing to tolerate this in small amounts, and if Bryzgalov's play keeps up, no one will mind.
The only bummer is that Bryzgalov DID allow a stuffer/bad-angle goal, tarnishing what was otherwise maybe his sharpest game of the season.
Carter
Speaking of players, who in the words of Bryzgalov may be "lost in the woods", RDS reported that Carter wants out of Columbus. It was no secret how devastated Carter was to be traded last offseason, holing up in his Jersey Shore house until Columbus sent a delegation to talk to him. Columbus's embarrassing start to the season certainly wasn't going to help anything. But Carter has only played 8 games for Columbus! Eight!
Now the denials have already come out, notably from his agent. The sum of the evidence points the fact that Carter has not formally requested a trade, but the notion he wants out has not been disputed by any party, which is pretty embarrassing. Surely there is more to come on this story as the season progresses...
Sunday, November 13, 2011
The Numbers on Coburn Extension
Last week Coburn signed a $4.5x4 contract with the Flyers. He was due to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Good deal? Let's see.
Coburn is currently 26 years old, and skates very well for a man his size, 6'5". However he doesn't play as big as his size might suggest. His production has declined steadily the last few seasons, down to 2g, 16a last season. He plays about 21 minutes a night.
What are comparable free agent defensemen contracts signed in the last two years?
Offseason 2010:
Zbynek Michalek - 27, $4x5, ~20 point, ~22 minutes/game
Sergei Gonchar - 36, $5.5x3, high scoring, ~23 minutes/game
Paul Martin - 29, $5x5, ~30 points, 23/24 minutes/game
Derek Morris - 31, $2.75x4, mid 20s points, ~21 minutes/game
Toni Lydman - 32, $3x3, low 20s points, 19-22 minutes/game
Offseason 2011:
Jonathan Ericsson - 26, $3.25x3, high teens points, high teens minutes
Roman Hamrlik - 36, $3.5x3, low 30s points, ~22 minutes
Really the closest comparison to Coburn are the contracts of Michalek and Martin, and Coburn's contract splits the difference between the two. The Flyers basically paid prevailing market prices, no more, no less. Fans tend to hear a number, and subjectively judge whether Player A is "__ million dollar defensemen." That's not really connected to reality. Coburn has his limitations, but he can play significant minutes and be comfortable on the second pair, and $4-5 million is the price for that right now.
Coburn is currently 26 years old, and skates very well for a man his size, 6'5". However he doesn't play as big as his size might suggest. His production has declined steadily the last few seasons, down to 2g, 16a last season. He plays about 21 minutes a night.
What are comparable free agent defensemen contracts signed in the last two years?
Offseason 2010:
Zbynek Michalek - 27, $4x5, ~20 point, ~22 minutes/game
Sergei Gonchar - 36, $5.5x3, high scoring, ~23 minutes/game
Paul Martin - 29, $5x5, ~30 points, 23/24 minutes/game
Derek Morris - 31, $2.75x4, mid 20s points, ~21 minutes/game
Toni Lydman - 32, $3x3, low 20s points, 19-22 minutes/game
Offseason 2011:
Jonathan Ericsson - 26, $3.25x3, high teens points, high teens minutes
Roman Hamrlik - 36, $3.5x3, low 30s points, ~22 minutes
Really the closest comparison to Coburn are the contracts of Michalek and Martin, and Coburn's contract splits the difference between the two. The Flyers basically paid prevailing market prices, no more, no less. Fans tend to hear a number, and subjectively judge whether Player A is "__ million dollar defensemen." That's not really connected to reality. Coburn has his limitations, but he can play significant minutes and be comfortable on the second pair, and $4-5 million is the price for that right now.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Stalling Out
The Flyers-Tampa Bay game the other night is the talk of the league right now. Briefly, Tampa Bay plays a unique and very conservative 1-3-1 neutral zone trap. The Flyers didn't want to skate into it, so they just stood there with the puck in the their own end. Literally. Repeatedly.
It made for a dreadful first period. There were a lot of penalties in then 2nd period, and things got more heated in the 3rd, but the ugly sight of the first period is sticking in people's minds. What to do about it?
First thing, what the NHL does NOT want to do is make a rash, midseason rule change for what is still an isolated incident. Let's see how much of a problem this is before directly addressing it.
If you do identify it as an ongoing concern, then you need to decide upon whom to place the burden. Bob McKenzie polled the GMs on who was in the wrong here, and of the 18 GMs that responded, 13 said TB.
Often people's first inclination to remedy the problem is a shot clock like solution which requires a team to carry the puck out of their own zone. The way I see it, the behavior the NHL wants to root out is the trap. Why reinforce the notion that trapping is a dominant strategy? If the NHL is going to choose to force someone to change their ways, it should penalize trapping.
Any solution should be simple. Simple to comply with, simple to judge, and hopefully with few unintended consequences. It would be very easy to place a burden on a team to force them to carry the puck into a trap--just pass a rule like basketball where a ball possessor has 5 seconds to advance the puck in a count carried out by the officials (no actual clock).
Placing a burden on the trapping team is a little more difficult, but doesn't have to be an obtuse rule. You could have illegal defense rules like the NBA, you could ban forwards from skating backwards in the neutral zone, or you could put a 5 second rule on them for someone to pursue the puck. I think the latter is the best idea. No convoluted rules, clocks, it just means that when a defensemen has a puck in his own end, you have to challenge him after a few seconds of standing around. Simple.
I suspect we're not going to see many more incidents like that this year, but if we do it should be addressed in the offseason to place a burden on the trapping team. No one likes the trap anyway.
It made for a dreadful first period. There were a lot of penalties in then 2nd period, and things got more heated in the 3rd, but the ugly sight of the first period is sticking in people's minds. What to do about it?
First thing, what the NHL does NOT want to do is make a rash, midseason rule change for what is still an isolated incident. Let's see how much of a problem this is before directly addressing it.
If you do identify it as an ongoing concern, then you need to decide upon whom to place the burden. Bob McKenzie polled the GMs on who was in the wrong here, and of the 18 GMs that responded, 13 said TB.
Often people's first inclination to remedy the problem is a shot clock like solution which requires a team to carry the puck out of their own zone. The way I see it, the behavior the NHL wants to root out is the trap. Why reinforce the notion that trapping is a dominant strategy? If the NHL is going to choose to force someone to change their ways, it should penalize trapping.
Any solution should be simple. Simple to comply with, simple to judge, and hopefully with few unintended consequences. It would be very easy to place a burden on a team to force them to carry the puck into a trap--just pass a rule like basketball where a ball possessor has 5 seconds to advance the puck in a count carried out by the officials (no actual clock).
Placing a burden on the trapping team is a little more difficult, but doesn't have to be an obtuse rule. You could have illegal defense rules like the NBA, you could ban forwards from skating backwards in the neutral zone, or you could put a 5 second rule on them for someone to pursue the puck. I think the latter is the best idea. No convoluted rules, clocks, it just means that when a defensemen has a puck in his own end, you have to challenge him after a few seconds of standing around. Simple.
I suspect we're not going to see many more incidents like that this year, but if we do it should be addressed in the offseason to place a burden on the trapping team. No one likes the trap anyway.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Winter Classic Jerseys
Thus far, every participant in the Winter Classic has worn a special jersey just for the occassion. This year, the Flyers have yet to announce the new look, and I don't know what the timeline is. Several mockups have hit the internet.
The earliest I can recall hearing news on the jersey was last May, when Tim Panaccio tweeted; "saw#flyers Winter Classic jerseys. awful. looks like Cincy Bengals. since when is this the NFL?"
Later in the summer, these jerseys started popping up on the internet.
I liked that one much better myself, and I have just recently begun seeing it for sale on the internet.
Just this week, a slightly different take was floated.
I think this was as much conceptual as someone actually claiming to have the real design. It wouldn't be too bad in my opinion though.
Now just today, new images have surfaced.
I couldn't say if this is real or not, but if it's a knockoff, it's a pretty well made knockoff. It's also similar to the mockup from October, with more white worked in.
I like it. Either way, it shouldn't be long before the real jersey is revealed. The game is less than 2 months away, and they've got to maximize those sales!
The earliest I can recall hearing news on the jersey was last May, when Tim Panaccio tweeted; "saw
Later in the summer, these jerseys started popping up on the internet.
I have been to several Flyers games this year, and I am stunned at how many fans already have this jersey. Still, word on the street is that this is not the jersey. Not even close.
Shortly after the season started, this image made the rounds on the internet.
Just this week, a slightly different take was floated.
I think this was as much conceptual as someone actually claiming to have the real design. It wouldn't be too bad in my opinion though.
Now just today, new images have surfaced.
I couldn't say if this is real or not, but if it's a knockoff, it's a pretty well made knockoff. It's also similar to the mockup from October, with more white worked in.
I like it. Either way, it shouldn't be long before the real jersey is revealed. The game is less than 2 months away, and they've got to maximize those sales!
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
One Month Down
October is over, and the Flyers' season is approximately 4 weeks old. Or, as Sean Avery might measure it, one menstrual cycle is complete. Either way, a good time to stop and see where the Flyers are.
Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina. Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.
-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina. I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him. My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker. He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots. Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press. All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.
-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably. Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line. Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5. Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor. A clear illustration;
-Schenn is injured again. Bummer.
Team Stats
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective. At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.
-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring. His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.
-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.
-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.
-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.
-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes. His long term outlook remains very strong though.
-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot. He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.
-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.
-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.
Among the themes to which I've already commented;
-The Flyers sit at 6-4-1, and hopefully have righted the ship with a solid win over Carolina. Again, this is a decent enough start for a team with so many new faces.
-Since my post saying don't worry about Bryzgalov, he hit rock bottom against Winnipeg, but played a solid game against Carolina. I think he'll be fine, and that he's a quality goaltender--one month in Philly won't kill him. My own evaluation of him was that he was becoming too passive and slow, even if it's his game to be a passive shot blocker. He needed to be a little more active, particularly on recovering from shots. Goalie coach Reese also said he thought Bryz was distracted, and in terrible news for the local sports media, the Flyers are muzzling his pre-game interactions with the press. All of this will sort itself out, and falls under the general settling in process.
-Since my post saying be worried about Hartnell, Laviolette "promoted" him to the top line with Giroux and Jagr, and it has worked unbelievably. Not just for Hartnell, but for the whole line. Laviolette took some heat for disrupting winning chemistry when Schenn was called, though in my opinion none of the Flyers lines were exactly clicking 5-on-5. Even with Giroux racking up goals, 5-on-5 production from he and Jagr (which is how you should judge how well a line is playing) was very poor. A clear illustration;
5-on-5 stats in 6 games of JVR-Giroux-JagrCompare that to the numbers since Laviolette juggled the lines;
JVR - 1g, 1a, -1
Giroux - 2g, 1a, -1
Jagr - 0g, 0a, even
5-on-5 stats in 5 games of Hartnell-Giroux-JagrNight and day. Either way, Hartnell has reclaimed his role on this team and will stick with Giroux and Jagr for the foreseeable future. Also, so much for Jagr's lack of goals that some people were whispering about....
Hartnell - 3g, 7a, +4
Giroux - 1g, 4a, +2
Jagr - 4g, 2a, +3
-Schenn is injured again. Bummer.
Team Stats
Goals - 3.73/game (2nd in NHL)Other player evaluations;
Goals against - 3.27/g (28th)
Faceoffs - 46.4% (29th)
Power play - 22.2 % (6th)
Penalty kill - 81.5% (18th) (the Flyers have also been shorthanded 34 times, the 2nd most of any team in the league)
Shots For - 32.8/g (6th)
Shots Against - 26.3 (2nd)
-Voracek is improving, but still not terribly effective. At least he's up on his skates and is getting chances.
-JVR is also improving, but is not looking anything like the player on a tear last spring. His play will have to improve from its current form for him to hit the 30+ goals target I was hoping for.
-I'm eager to see what Gustafsson can do in an extended audition.
-Timonen is looking healthier and stronger than last spring.
-After his brush with a very serious injury, Chris Pronger is still a wiseass.
-Couturier looks to be staying for the duration, though honestly I'm a little concerned about him being parked on the 4th line, getting very few even strength minutes. His long term outlook remains very strong though.
-Rinaldo has made a strong case to hold a roster spot. He won't play many minutes, but the guy is instant energy that appears to spark his teammates.
-Simmonds has some stone hands going, but he is always battling and some goals could come very soon on the PP.
-If Matt Read can keep playing with jump he will be a valuable winger for this team.
Friday, October 28, 2011
9-8
It was a remarkable game. 17 goals, 3 goalie changes, each team with a 5 goal run. Highlights:
As remarkable as it was though, it defies most comment. The Flyers deserve heavy criticism for the way they rapidly turned a 1-0 lead into a 5-1 hole, but pretty much from that point it was pandemonium out there. Fundamentals and discipline went out the window and there's no much reason to dwell on what happened in the 2nd and 3rd period.
The bigger story is Bryzgalov's post game comments:
The conventional wisdom is that you never want to hear any player, let alone the goalie who teammates must trust, to say he has no confidence in himself. The "correct" answer he was supposed to give is that he was embarrassed by his play, but will work hard to figure things and be better the next game.
Apparently that's not Bryzgalov's way. It's been a really bad week for him, and this game is the new low. I wouldn't get caught up on what he says; he's pretty aloof and will deal with it in his own way. It WILL be a problem if his play doesn't start to improve though. He can say what he want as long as his play improves, but if his play continues to decline people will jump on these comments and say his attitude is hurting him.
The good news that can be taken away from last night's game is that they had two effective lines. Hartnell has Giroux and Jagr creating more 5-on-5 pressure, and JVR on the wing made Briere look much more dangerous.
The bad news is that for the second consecutive game the Flyers took a 1-0 lead, then capitulated.
With all the new faces on the team an adjustment period should've been expected. The preseason and first few games went so well, however, that expectations for this team rapidly changed. 5-4-1 in October for a team with so much turnover is not such a bad thing, but the team needs to get straightened out quick before 5-4 becomes 5-10, which would be a very bad thing.
As remarkable as it was though, it defies most comment. The Flyers deserve heavy criticism for the way they rapidly turned a 1-0 lead into a 5-1 hole, but pretty much from that point it was pandemonium out there. Fundamentals and discipline went out the window and there's no much reason to dwell on what happened in the 2nd and 3rd period.
The bigger story is Bryzgalov's post game comments:
The conventional wisdom is that you never want to hear any player, let alone the goalie who teammates must trust, to say he has no confidence in himself. The "correct" answer he was supposed to give is that he was embarrassed by his play, but will work hard to figure things and be better the next game.
Apparently that's not Bryzgalov's way. It's been a really bad week for him, and this game is the new low. I wouldn't get caught up on what he says; he's pretty aloof and will deal with it in his own way. It WILL be a problem if his play doesn't start to improve though. He can say what he want as long as his play improves, but if his play continues to decline people will jump on these comments and say his attitude is hurting him.
The good news that can be taken away from last night's game is that they had two effective lines. Hartnell has Giroux and Jagr creating more 5-on-5 pressure, and JVR on the wing made Briere look much more dangerous.
The bad news is that for the second consecutive game the Flyers took a 1-0 lead, then capitulated.
With all the new faces on the team an adjustment period should've been expected. The preseason and first few games went so well, however, that expectations for this team rapidly changed. 5-4-1 in October for a team with so much turnover is not such a bad thing, but the team needs to get straightened out quick before 5-4 becomes 5-10, which would be a very bad thing.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Despair!
It was going to happen sooner or later. An ugly loss that will allow some Flyers fans to do what they do best; carry on about how the team is a wreck.
In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers. The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead. Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in. Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.
The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score. The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick. The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.
Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season. The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.
-Unnecessary penalties. High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.
-Hartnell on the outs? Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night. With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line. I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.
-Briere's line not doing anything. There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level. No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.
Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov. 5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up. His rebound control has also been very good.
-Schenn's -3 debut. Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one. Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.
-Jagr still scoreless. Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.
In a nutshell, last night the Caps came out with more jump than the Flyers. The Flyers were able to scramble on defense enough to keep the Caps off the board and took the lead. Things looked good as the first period was wrapping up, until Hartnell had a terrible unforced giveaway, and the ensuing shot deflected off Coburn's stick and in. Even worse, with 11 seconds left in the period, Giroux got beat behind the net and Backstrom carried it out unchallenged, getting it over to Ovechkin for a slam dunk.
The Flyers played well in the second period, but couldn't score. The game could've then gone either way in the 3rd, but the Caps scored a fluke goal as a harmless shot again deflected off a defensemen's stick. The Flyers immediately took a lazy penalty, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer (which deflected again), and it was pretty much over.
Things to be worried about after a loss like this:
-The Flyers tendency to give up quick, back-to-back goals, which plagued them last season. The Caps did all of their scoring last night in 70 second and 2.5 minute stretches respectively.
-Unnecessary penalties. High sticks, offensive zone penalties, leaving the Flyers shorthanded for no good reason, and all too often.
-Hartnell on the outs? Hartnell's ice time is way down this year, and he had a rough game last night. With Schenn getting called up, one of Schenn, Hartnell, or Couturier will be playing on the 4th line. I'm okay with "Cooter" down there because he gets so much PK time, but I'd be nervous if I were Hartnell.
-Briere's line not doing anything. There is a noticeable lack of chances being created by Briere's line this year, though last night Read took Voracek's place there and played pretty well on an individual level. No chemistry happening with Briere and his linemates though.
Things not to be worried about;
-Bryzgalov. 5 goals looks ugly, and his stats are declining, but he's given up an inordinate number of deflected goals this year, and I'd be hard pressed to come up with examples of soft goals he's given up. His rebound control has also been very good.
-Schenn's -3 debut. Schenn happened to be on the ice for Hartnell's giveaway, and the backbreaking third goal which was the flukiest one. Schenn looks pretty smooth with the puck, and threw a few nice checks last game.
-Jagr still scoreless. Jagr does look a little fatigued, but he's still playing well along the boards and has 4 points in 6 games.
Monday, October 17, 2011
The "Prime" of High-Flying Scorers
I was reading an article the other day about the apparent decline of Alex Ovechkin, and if we've already seen the best of him. I think the answer to that question is yes, if you consider the "best" being his days a high octane scorer. And since this is the kind of pointless question blogs truly exist for...
Most fans and commentators peg the "prime" years of a guy's career in hockey being the late 20s, and maybe circa 30 for goalies. I don't think that is accurate if you're talking about explosive offense. Just talking a random sample of some big stars, with the ages of career highs in goals and points;
-Gretzky, 20, 24
-Lemeiux, 23, 23
-Roenick, 21, 22
-Modano, 29, 26
-Selanne, 22, 22
-Hull, 26, 26
-Bure, 21, 21
-Jagr, 23, 23
-Yzerman, 23, 23
-Bondra, 27, 25
-Lindros, 22, 22
-LeClair, 26, 26
-Tkachuk, 24, 23
-Recchi, 24, 24
-Sakic, 31, 26
-Iginla, 24, 31
-Ovechkin, 22, 22?
It's an imperfect and sloppy analysis, as many players still put up similar numbers in successive years, but the pattern is clear; the most explosive offensive years comes from players in their early 20s. They may well be better overall players later in their career, but they basically never reach back and top their previous production.
This is something to keep in mind when projecting the futures of guys like Ovechkin and Stamkos. Ovechkin, the force of nature who scored 65 goals, is probably not coming back, but it won't prevent him from being a top scorer for years to come.
Most fans and commentators peg the "prime" years of a guy's career in hockey being the late 20s, and maybe circa 30 for goalies. I don't think that is accurate if you're talking about explosive offense. Just talking a random sample of some big stars, with the ages of career highs in goals and points;
-Gretzky, 20, 24
-Lemeiux, 23, 23
-Roenick, 21, 22
-Modano, 29, 26
-Selanne, 22, 22
-Hull, 26, 26
-Bure, 21, 21
-Jagr, 23, 23
-Yzerman, 23, 23
-Bondra, 27, 25
-Lindros, 22, 22
-LeClair, 26, 26
-Tkachuk, 24, 23
-Recchi, 24, 24
-Sakic, 31, 26
-Iginla, 24, 31
-Ovechkin, 22, 22?
It's an imperfect and sloppy analysis, as many players still put up similar numbers in successive years, but the pattern is clear; the most explosive offensive years comes from players in their early 20s. They may well be better overall players later in their career, but they basically never reach back and top their previous production.
This is something to keep in mind when projecting the futures of guys like Ovechkin and Stamkos. Ovechkin, the force of nature who scored 65 goals, is probably not coming back, but it won't prevent him from being a top scorer for years to come.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
One Week Down
I was just speaking with Captain Obvious about how this year's Flyers team is very different from last year. After speaking Captain Slightly-Less-Obvious, it's clear that the Flyers this year will be playing a very different game than any Flyers team in memory. Now that the Flyers have played a few games, some judgments may be made.
This year's Flyers team will not be able to impose their will on other teams. Long gone are imposing centers like Lindros and Primeau, but even last year's depth at center with Carter, Richards, Briere and Giroux looks much less formidable this year. This team will be opportunistic on offense, and likely rely on their power play a fair amount.
The team spends most of its money on experienced defensemen and goaltending, creating a team that will be a tough nut to crack (hopefully). More noteworthy is Bryzgalov's style of play; minimal movement, and a big shot blocker. I'm not sure the Flyers have ever had a "percentage" goalie like Bryzgalov before. Personally, I love it. Last year the Flyers were the only team in the NHL not to earn a shutout, and you knew that wasn't going to happen this year. I just thought it might take longer than 2 games to occur.
Another difference with this Flyers team is their size, which is often lost in the shuffle of this offseason. Nearly every player they added is big; Jagr 6'3", Couturier 6'4", Voracek 6'2", and Simmonds 6'2". Throw in these mobile, big players and I think the Flyers roster mix fits Laviolette's style of play much better.
Other Notes:
-Couturier could be staying with the big club for the season. Getting all those PK minutes is highly unusual for an 18 year old player. He plays a very smart game and doesn't look out of place at all, and the team is currently structured with him as the clear #1 PK center without a clear replacement if he is sent back to juniors. The Flyers need to weigh this against his long term development, and being a PK guy for a few years isn't always the best way for a guy to blossom into a future top line player (which is what the Flyers should expect from him).
-With Betts coming back from waivers due to failing a medical, the Flyershave had 2 problems. Betts' return eats cap space, and the Flyers were forced to make a minor trade to get under the 50 contract limit yesterday. Betts' injury status convolutes the Flyers ability to waive him, though waiving him removes him from the salary cap. With Shelley's suspension, Betts and Schenn's injury/AHL status, Walker's injury, and Couturier's uncertain prospect of sticking around, the Flyers roster situation is messy, and I'm not sure how they will choose to resolve it all.
-On the subject of Betts, it is curious to me that they are casting him aside so casually while laying such a big penalty killing burden on 2 rookies (Read and Couturier). I'm not sure of the wisdom on this.
-Bryzgalov is making friends in Philly. Timonen: "I knew very little about Bryz, but he's been promising and a really good guy. Not a typical Russian...or like Zherdev." Okay, so I made up the Zherdev part. Also, apparently Bryzgalov delighted reporters with a Scarface impression the other day, but I don't know of any video of it. *sadness*
-I can't be too hard on a guy who has 2 goals in three games, but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've seen from Voracek. He has a few good shifts here and there, but most of his shifts are not helpful to his teammates. That whole line isn't doing much.
This year's Flyers team will not be able to impose their will on other teams. Long gone are imposing centers like Lindros and Primeau, but even last year's depth at center with Carter, Richards, Briere and Giroux looks much less formidable this year. This team will be opportunistic on offense, and likely rely on their power play a fair amount.
The team spends most of its money on experienced defensemen and goaltending, creating a team that will be a tough nut to crack (hopefully). More noteworthy is Bryzgalov's style of play; minimal movement, and a big shot blocker. I'm not sure the Flyers have ever had a "percentage" goalie like Bryzgalov before. Personally, I love it. Last year the Flyers were the only team in the NHL not to earn a shutout, and you knew that wasn't going to happen this year. I just thought it might take longer than 2 games to occur.
Another difference with this Flyers team is their size, which is often lost in the shuffle of this offseason. Nearly every player they added is big; Jagr 6'3", Couturier 6'4", Voracek 6'2", and Simmonds 6'2". Throw in these mobile, big players and I think the Flyers roster mix fits Laviolette's style of play much better.
Other Notes:
-Couturier could be staying with the big club for the season. Getting all those PK minutes is highly unusual for an 18 year old player. He plays a very smart game and doesn't look out of place at all, and the team is currently structured with him as the clear #1 PK center without a clear replacement if he is sent back to juniors. The Flyers need to weigh this against his long term development, and being a PK guy for a few years isn't always the best way for a guy to blossom into a future top line player (which is what the Flyers should expect from him).
-With Betts coming back from waivers due to failing a medical, the Flyers
-On the subject of Betts, it is curious to me that they are casting him aside so casually while laying such a big penalty killing burden on 2 rookies (Read and Couturier). I'm not sure of the wisdom on this.
-Bryzgalov is making friends in Philly. Timonen: "I knew very little about Bryz, but he's been promising and a really good guy. Not a typical Russian...or like Zherdev." Okay, so I made up the Zherdev part. Also, apparently Bryzgalov delighted reporters with a Scarface impression the other day, but I don't know of any video of it. *sadness*
-I can't be too hard on a guy who has 2 goals in three games, but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've seen from Voracek. He has a few good shifts here and there, but most of his shifts are not helpful to his teammates. That whole line isn't doing much.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
A Breath of Fresh Air
The new season is days away, and the feeling around the team is palpably different. The team hierarchy is clear cut. After a few seasons of Mike Richards being the face of the team (aka Captain Mumbles), the leadership burden falls on players who are very comfortable in their own skin; Pronger, Bryzgalov, Timonen and Jagr. All of these players deal with the media and pressure effortlessly, and Pronger and Bryzgalov will be competing for the better quotes all season long.
I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went. First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads. Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations. I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.
Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise. I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative. Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.
The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons. For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL. While disappointing, this is not the end of the world. Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them. Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too. Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going. Fingers crossed there.
Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans. I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower. Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc. I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr). A few key injuries could be devastating.
The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate. Maybe I'm getting lazy....
I think it's hard for Flyers fans not to be excited with how this preseason went. First of all, Jagr and Bobrovsky turned a lot of heads. Apparently Jagr is training fanatically, returning to the rink for late nights skates in a weighted jacket, and his preseason performance is raising expectations. I said previously that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points, but many are now speculating him to hum along at a point/game pace alongside Giroux.
Also, Wayne Simmonds scoring 4 goals in the preseason has been a nice surprise. I think he has been an under-appreciated acquisition this summer, and that he has the potential to be a fan favorite with his physical initiative. Still, he only scored 30 points last year, so it was unclear how many points the Flyers could expect from him this year, but early indications point him to getting PP time.
The flip side of the coin is that Schenn and Voracek have had anonymous preseasons. For Schenn, that could mean a start in the AHL. While disappointing, this is not the end of the world. Giroux and Spezza, for example, did the same, and things worked out pretty well for them. Starting Schenn in the AHL would save the Flyers a lot of cap space too. Voracek's ice time is assured, but he will drift into Laviolette's doghouse if he doesn't get going. Fingers crossed there.
Overall it's an exciting time for Flyers fans. I think this year's team ceiling is a little lower than last year's squad, which was kicking butt in January, however the chances of a crisis of confidence that afflicted last year's team are also lower. Better goaltending, steadier leadership....etc. I think the biggest problem facing the Flyers is that most of their players are still pretty young (JVR, Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek) or at the end of their careers and are at a great injury risk (Pronger, Timonen, Jagr). A few key injuries could be devastating.
The final roster will be announced tomorrow, so I'm just going to wait and see on that one rather than prognosticate. Maybe I'm getting lazy....
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Simmonds and Things
It's been a very tough week for Wayne Simmonds. First the now infamous banana incident, and then he finds himself on the other end of a bad situation with Avery/homophobe incident. You couldn't blame Simmonds for simply wanting to move on from the banana incident, though it's a little harder to ask everyone to simply forget a similar incident in which you are the perpetrator.
There is no excusing Simmonds alleged (likely) use of homophobic slurs. It's not right and no provocation justifies it. The whole thing is just unfortunate for a lot of reasons.
Truthfully the situation fits Avery's modus operandi perfectly. Agitate, physically and verbally, then when a response finally comes, cry to the referees instead of finishing what you started. This pattern was on full display in the game a few days, as microphones clearly caught Avery repeatedly yelling "he was going ****ing kill Giroux," and cheapshotting Simmonds with a punch in the face at the bottom of the pile when Simmonds is defenseless. Later Simmonds challenges Avery to a toe-to-toe fight, and Avery turtles drawing a penalty. As I said, his typical bag of tricks.
Where things change here is that, where Avery usually agitates then cries to the referees for a penalty, here he agitates then rats out a player to the media. This is against all acknowledged NHL players codes, that what happens on the ice stays on the ice.
Avery is no angel. He has previously been accused of using racial slurs against black players, was suspended by the league for commenting to the media that other players were having his sloppy seconds by dating his ex-girlfriend, and has at various other times been accused of crossing the line with his trash talk, delving into player's personal lives and wives. Additionally, it has been reported that unnamed officials say they hear language like Simmonds is accused of 10 times a game. Clearly, all of this generally vile behavior underlines that trash talk that is not fit for public consumption is an everyday part of life in the NHL.
Again, this doesn't excuse Simmonds behavior, but the prevailing culture cannot be ignored. It is not practical or even fair to come crashing down on Simmonds at this time. This is an uncomfortable subject that will come up again around the league, but for now the NHL is content to let it blow over and merely put everyone on notice.
General Preseason Notes
-The consensus is that Matt Read has won himself a spot of the roster, quite likely in the top 9 forwards. He's shown a ton of jump, and is playing smart in all situations. This would be great news for the Flyers if he can stick as a reliable, productive player.
-Schenn has underwhelmed a bit this preseason, and is now hurt. The widespread expectation was that he would make the team, but the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if he starts the season down in the AHL. He is exempt from waivers so the Flyers can send him up and down as they please. Also, the Flyers cap situation is very tight, and his $3m+ contract is not a trivial number.
-Couturier has shown very well, but it was always going to be an uphill climb for him to make the squad at 18. I'd be very surprised if he sticks past the 10 game mark, when players his age must be sent back to juniors or else the Flyers will lose a year to his free agency status.
-The 7th defensemen spot battle still seems pretty wide open. Matt Walker has the most NHL bona fides, but also a much bigger contract than Gustafsson and Bartulis, so he will have to be that much better than them to make the team.
-Good stuff from Bobrovsky thus far. I previously said the Flyers would've been crazy to give the keys to the team this season, which I still definitely believe, but a year as a backup could be great for him. Especially if he plays like this for an extended period.
There is no excusing Simmonds alleged (likely) use of homophobic slurs. It's not right and no provocation justifies it. The whole thing is just unfortunate for a lot of reasons.
Truthfully the situation fits Avery's modus operandi perfectly. Agitate, physically and verbally, then when a response finally comes, cry to the referees instead of finishing what you started. This pattern was on full display in the game a few days, as microphones clearly caught Avery repeatedly yelling "he was going ****ing kill Giroux," and cheapshotting Simmonds with a punch in the face at the bottom of the pile when Simmonds is defenseless. Later Simmonds challenges Avery to a toe-to-toe fight, and Avery turtles drawing a penalty. As I said, his typical bag of tricks.
Where things change here is that, where Avery usually agitates then cries to the referees for a penalty, here he agitates then rats out a player to the media. This is against all acknowledged NHL players codes, that what happens on the ice stays on the ice.
Avery is no angel. He has previously been accused of using racial slurs against black players, was suspended by the league for commenting to the media that other players were having his sloppy seconds by dating his ex-girlfriend, and has at various other times been accused of crossing the line with his trash talk, delving into player's personal lives and wives. Additionally, it has been reported that unnamed officials say they hear language like Simmonds is accused of 10 times a game. Clearly, all of this generally vile behavior underlines that trash talk that is not fit for public consumption is an everyday part of life in the NHL.
Again, this doesn't excuse Simmonds behavior, but the prevailing culture cannot be ignored. It is not practical or even fair to come crashing down on Simmonds at this time. This is an uncomfortable subject that will come up again around the league, but for now the NHL is content to let it blow over and merely put everyone on notice.
General Preseason Notes
-The consensus is that Matt Read has won himself a spot of the roster, quite likely in the top 9 forwards. He's shown a ton of jump, and is playing smart in all situations. This would be great news for the Flyers if he can stick as a reliable, productive player.
-Schenn has underwhelmed a bit this preseason, and is now hurt. The widespread expectation was that he would make the team, but the way things are going I wouldn't be shocked if he starts the season down in the AHL. He is exempt from waivers so the Flyers can send him up and down as they please. Also, the Flyers cap situation is very tight, and his $3m+ contract is not a trivial number.
-Couturier has shown very well, but it was always going to be an uphill climb for him to make the squad at 18. I'd be very surprised if he sticks past the 10 game mark, when players his age must be sent back to juniors or else the Flyers will lose a year to his free agency status.
-The 7th defensemen spot battle still seems pretty wide open. Matt Walker has the most NHL bona fides, but also a much bigger contract than Gustafsson and Bartulis, so he will have to be that much better than them to make the team.
-Good stuff from Bobrovsky thus far. I previously said the Flyers would've been crazy to give the keys to the team this season, which I still definitely believe, but a year as a backup could be great for him. Especially if he plays like this for an extended period.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Shanahan's Reign Begins
I was not a fan of how the NHL has conducted its disciplinary system the last few seasons. It was arbitrary, mysterious, and lived up to the fan's mocking moniker "wheel of justice." Perhaps the biggest indictment of the system was that it was wholly unpredictable, and lack of transparency and clarity are one of the worst criticisms you can level at an institutional system of justice.
When Colin Campbell left the office as head disciplinarian, things could only get better. In steps Brendan Shanahan, a respected and well-liked former player who has been actively involved in rule tweaks the last few seasons.
Shanahan got things off to a good start, and even regaled those of us who lack the patience and interest to read a press release with a video;
Wow. Transparent, clear, tough. What a difference.
Jody Shelley has also found himself in the crosshairs;
I don't think Shelley's hit was as bad as LeBlond's, so Shelley's multiple suspensions last year and his "repeat offender" status obviously counts for a lot.
Given this positive start, the question still remained about the trickier case of illegal checks to the head. Those incidents are much touchier, and there is still some resistance in the league to harsh penalties for such plays. Also, late last season the GMs passed rule changes to toughen up boarding enforcement. This included the language quoted in the videos about how the onus is the on the player applying the check to ensure the target is not in a defenseless position. This language is not illegal check to the head rule.
It didn't take long to get a preview of how Shanahan will handle headshots;
Two games isn't very much, but that is explained by the lack of injury, intent, and previous suspension history of Boyes. What IS noteworthy about this video is that Shanahan states that the onus was on the player delivering the check to minimize contact to the head, even though the onus language is not written into the headshot rule, as it is for boarding.
I think these rulings forebode very well for NHL disciplinary action this season. Administratively, they are clear and transparent. Substantively, they are tough penalties that place the onus on the checking player not to prey on the other player. While the target still bears some responsibility for his position, it's a softening on the old school "keep your head up" attitude, which I think is the most important piece in reducing head injuries in the long run.
When Colin Campbell left the office as head disciplinarian, things could only get better. In steps Brendan Shanahan, a respected and well-liked former player who has been actively involved in rule tweaks the last few seasons.
Shanahan got things off to a good start, and even regaled those of us who lack the patience and interest to read a press release with a video;
Wow. Transparent, clear, tough. What a difference.
Jody Shelley has also found himself in the crosshairs;
I don't think Shelley's hit was as bad as LeBlond's, so Shelley's multiple suspensions last year and his "repeat offender" status obviously counts for a lot.
Given this positive start, the question still remained about the trickier case of illegal checks to the head. Those incidents are much touchier, and there is still some resistance in the league to harsh penalties for such plays. Also, late last season the GMs passed rule changes to toughen up boarding enforcement. This included the language quoted in the videos about how the onus is the on the player applying the check to ensure the target is not in a defenseless position. This language is not illegal check to the head rule.
It didn't take long to get a preview of how Shanahan will handle headshots;
Two games isn't very much, but that is explained by the lack of injury, intent, and previous suspension history of Boyes. What IS noteworthy about this video is that Shanahan states that the onus was on the player delivering the check to minimize contact to the head, even though the onus language is not written into the headshot rule, as it is for boarding.
I think these rulings forebode very well for NHL disciplinary action this season. Administratively, they are clear and transparent. Substantively, they are tough penalties that place the onus on the checking player not to prey on the other player. While the target still bears some responsibility for his position, it's a softening on the old school "keep your head up" attitude, which I think is the most important piece in reducing head injuries in the long run.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
JVR Signs Extension
It's been a while since I posted anything, as I declined to post on topics such as Bryzgalov's goalie mask (which apparently upset some people, link), or dwell on why Nik Zherdev finds himself out of the NHL again. Anyway, JVR's new contract extension is at least worthy of acknowledgment.
With a $4.25x6 year contract, JVR is under contract with the Flyers for the next 7 seasons, until he is 29 years old. There are a few noteworthy details to all this.
First, many Flyers fans immediately noticed that he will be getting more than Claude Giroux, who resigned last year for $3.75x3. Undoubtedly, Giroux had accomplished more in the NHL at the time of signing, and is more important to the Flyers right now. There are two big reasons why this is the case. The first is that the NHL free agent market blew up this offseason. The cost of players jumped significantly, and that's just a fact. Second, Giroux will be getting a big raise in 2 years at the age of 26. As a result of this mid-20s RFA contract for Giroux, Giroux will be paid more than JVR for years 4-7 of the JVR's contractual period. By signing a 6 year deal, JVR was forsaking the possibility of getting a raise as a mid-20s RFA.
Putting the Giroux comparison aside, it is also noteworthy that the Flyers made a pretty big commitment to JVR. Six year contracts are no small thing, and it's not exactly a bargain basement cap hit either. All this for a player with a career high of 40 points. Obviously this deal is all about potential, and the Flyers are making a fairly large bet that JVR will begin to look more like the player who scored 7 goals in 11 playoff games, and had one of the best single-game individual performances by a Flyer in memory in game 2 versus the Bruins. That player is a 40 goal scorer. It would be unfair to expect JVR to jump from 21 goals to 40 based on 2 weeks in the playoffs last year, but 30+ will be the expectation next year, and 35-45/year should be the expectation for most of this contractual period.
The last item of note is making a very early preview the Flyers cap situation in the 2012-13 season. The long and short of that is, presuming a modest rise in the salary cap, the Flyers will have around $12m to re-sign or otherwise fill the roster slots of Carle, Coburn and Jagr.
With a $4.25x6 year contract, JVR is under contract with the Flyers for the next 7 seasons, until he is 29 years old. There are a few noteworthy details to all this.
First, many Flyers fans immediately noticed that he will be getting more than Claude Giroux, who resigned last year for $3.75x3. Undoubtedly, Giroux had accomplished more in the NHL at the time of signing, and is more important to the Flyers right now. There are two big reasons why this is the case. The first is that the NHL free agent market blew up this offseason. The cost of players jumped significantly, and that's just a fact. Second, Giroux will be getting a big raise in 2 years at the age of 26. As a result of this mid-20s RFA contract for Giroux, Giroux will be paid more than JVR for years 4-7 of the JVR's contractual period. By signing a 6 year deal, JVR was forsaking the possibility of getting a raise as a mid-20s RFA.
Putting the Giroux comparison aside, it is also noteworthy that the Flyers made a pretty big commitment to JVR. Six year contracts are no small thing, and it's not exactly a bargain basement cap hit either. All this for a player with a career high of 40 points. Obviously this deal is all about potential, and the Flyers are making a fairly large bet that JVR will begin to look more like the player who scored 7 goals in 11 playoff games, and had one of the best single-game individual performances by a Flyer in memory in game 2 versus the Bruins. That player is a 40 goal scorer. It would be unfair to expect JVR to jump from 21 goals to 40 based on 2 weeks in the playoffs last year, but 30+ will be the expectation next year, and 35-45/year should be the expectation for most of this contractual period.
The last item of note is making a very early preview the Flyers cap situation in the 2012-13 season. The long and short of that is, presuming a modest rise in the salary cap, the Flyers will have around $12m to re-sign or otherwise fill the roster slots of Carle, Coburn and Jagr.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Schenn and Richards
Of all the offseason maneuvering the Flyers did this season, the Richards trade makes me the most nervous. This is because Richards is the largest piece actually removed from the roster in all the moves.
Schenn is a very, very highly rated prospect, and scouts have actually compared him to Mike Richards as a player. In trying to forecast what to expect to Schenn this season, I think it makes sense to compare the players side at the same points in their career.
Mike Richards
-drafted 24th in 2003 (one of the best draft classes ever)
-highly successful junior career on a very good junior team (reg season--292pts in 233 games, playoffs--56 pts in 41 games)
-10 points in 12 career WJC games, including captaining one of the best WJC teams ever and playing on the third line (no doubt Crosby was the #1 center on that team)
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and had 15 points in 14 playoffs games as Phantoms and won the AHL cup
-34 points in 79 games as 21 year old rookie as number 3 center
Brayden Schenn
-drafted 5th in 2009 draft
-315 points in 224 junior games (51 points in 42 playoff games)
-26 points in 13 WJC games
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and scored 11 points in 12 games (playoffs plus reg season games)
-as a 21 year old rookie in the number 3 center slot....???
The resumes are pretty comparable. Schenn was drafted higher, though the 2003 draft was incredibly deep--Richards wouldn't drop so low in other years. Comparable junior and AHL records too, but Schenn is coming off an incredible WJC performance.
From the little I seen of Schenn, he looks a little slipperier and quicker on the puck, though I couldn't comment how his defensive and checking games compares to Richards.
You never quite know what you are going to get from a rookie, but it may be wise to expect comparable production from Schenn this year as Richards produced in his rookie season. Hopefully he'll do even better. How Schenn does long term however, and if he makes Flyers fans forget Mike Richards, will likely be the legacy of this crazy offseason for the Flyers
Schenn is a very, very highly rated prospect, and scouts have actually compared him to Mike Richards as a player. In trying to forecast what to expect to Schenn this season, I think it makes sense to compare the players side at the same points in their career.
Mike Richards
-drafted 24th in 2003 (one of the best draft classes ever)
-highly successful junior career on a very good junior team (reg season--292pts in 233 games, playoffs--56 pts in 41 games)
-10 points in 12 career WJC games, including captaining one of the best WJC teams ever and playing on the third line (no doubt Crosby was the #1 center on that team)
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and had 15 points in 14 playoffs games as Phantoms and won the AHL cup
-34 points in 79 games as 21 year old rookie as number 3 center
Brayden Schenn
-drafted 5th in 2009 draft
-315 points in 224 junior games (51 points in 42 playoff games)
-26 points in 13 WJC games
-at age 20, joined AHL season late, and scored 11 points in 12 games (playoffs plus reg season games)
-as a 21 year old rookie in the number 3 center slot....???
The resumes are pretty comparable. Schenn was drafted higher, though the 2003 draft was incredibly deep--Richards wouldn't drop so low in other years. Comparable junior and AHL records too, but Schenn is coming off an incredible WJC performance.
From the little I seen of Schenn, he looks a little slipperier and quicker on the puck, though I couldn't comment how his defensive and checking games compares to Richards.
You never quite know what you are going to get from a rookie, but it may be wise to expect comparable production from Schenn this year as Richards produced in his rookie season. Hopefully he'll do even better. How Schenn does long term however, and if he makes Flyers fans forget Mike Richards, will likely be the legacy of this crazy offseason for the Flyers
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Most Interesting Offseason in the World
The free agent frenzy is quieting down now, and you can take stock of most things.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
The big point overall is that UFAs this year made a killing. Players were getting 30% more than a comparable player would've gotten 2 years ago. I think it's mostly due the to fact that it was a generally weak free agent group coming in a year where the salary cap increased more than expected. And then you have a team like Florida spending money like a drunken sailor in a whorehouse on decent but unspectacular players simply to get to the cap floor that compounded the perverted market.
For the Flyers, the Extreme Makeover continues. Out with the Canadian golden boys, in with puck possession eastern europeans, a Russian goalie, and a black guy. Despite a bunch of rumors of something bigger like Brad Richards, Stamkos, or a big trade, the Flyers mostly stuck to the expected game plan. Mostly.
The most "predictable" move was adding a 3rd/4th line character guy. The Flyers needed some experience in that area, and the team has commented that they need a "new Laperriere" to provide leadership and character in that role. Max Talbot seems to fit that bill, the only surprise being that he comes from the Penguins.
Speaking of the Penguins, there was that signing of Jagr the other day. Now nearly everyone expected the Flyers to be looking at wingers, maybe Erik Cole or Michael Ryder, but no one was taking about Jagr to the Flyers until the day before free agency. Apparently the Flyers pursuit of him didn't even start until then until Holmgren speculatively sent a text to former flyer Petr Svoboda, who is the agent for Jagr and Voracek.
Jagr will be a very interesting case. He'll turn 40 in midseason and will not be the dominant player of old, but he's remained productive in Russia and is coming off a very strong World Championships performance. It's easy to question whether an aging temperamental Euro star is a right fit on the Flyers, but Jagr seems more dedicated to training and staying in shape than ever before. Also he apparently did his homework and chose the Flyers (which were not the richest offer) after talking to the coaches and players. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful that Jagr will have a productive season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him hit 60 points this season.
Lastly, there is the signing of Andreas Lilja. A cheap, depth defensemen for the 6/7 role.
Other Signings:
-Handzus to SJ for $2.5x2 years. Early in the day it was reported that the Flyers had signed Handzus, to which I was receptive. He would be a big centermen to play on the third line and would be a decent fit at the right price. Seems to me SJ got a good deal here for an aging though still valuable centermen.
-Upshall to Florida for $3.5x4. Wow, the first of many big overpayments on the day. This signing was the perfect marriage of a player who's not quite as good as he thinks he is (career highs; 22 goals and 34 points) with a team looking to overpay to get to the cap floor.
-Leino to Buffalo for $4.5x6. This is an outright shocker. I don't blame the Flyers for holding steady at a $3m deal, though I suspected someone else would come along and offer more. Just not that much more. Calendar year 2010 Leino, who scored 21 points in 19 playoff games and had a very strong first half of the ensuing regular season, was a player worthy of a deal approaching $4m a season. Calendar year 2011 Leino, not so much. While Leino is younger and better defensively than Jagr (though he's still not great defensively himself), what are the odds the Flyers get more points and goals from Jagr at $3.3m this year than Buffalo gets from Leino at $4.5?
-Cole to Montreal for $4.5x4. This is the guy who I wanted on the Flyers, and while that's not an outrageous price, it was still too high for the Flyers to entertain.
-Connolly to Leafs for $4.75x2. Connolly is a talented player who plays at near a point/game pace when healthy, but when is he ever healthy? He's only played 70 games once since the lockout, and here are his point totals the last 5 seasons; 1, 40, 47, 65, 42. This is a $5 million player now? At least it's only a 2 year deal.
-Vokoun to the Caps for $1.5x1. An outright steal for the Caps, as he fell into their laps when he didn't find a big money deal on July 1 and looked for a contender to join. Of course the Flyers could not have entered free agency and expected to get Vokoun for anywhere near this amount, but it still hurts to watch a competitor get such a quality goalie for so little salary, even if it was just luck.
Up Next for the Flyers:
-The Flyers don't have much cap space left. They likely have $3m or so in cap space left after signing Simmonds and making expected cuts, but they still need to carry a 19th or 20th skater and leave a little cap buffer.
-There are rumors the Flyers are sniffing around Jason Arnott. He would be of similar interest to the Flyers for the same reason as Handzus; a big third line center at this point of his career. He might want too much money though.
-The Stamkos rumors never go away with the Flyers. The latest is Schenn, Bobrovsky and 1st rounder for Stamkos. If there was no salary cap and this was purely about hockey, I definitely do this deal. Given the cap restraints however, the Flyers will likely have to dump more salary to fit Stamkos in (Hartnell or Carle maybe), and would not be in great shape next offseason allocating raises to JVR and Coburn, so it's ultimately a tough call. This is assuming of course the rumors are accurate and Stamkos doesn't simply resign with the Lightning.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Free Agent Madness
It begins today at noon.
The NHL free agent frenzy is pretty wild, with most of the big names signing within a few hours, and just about everyone of consequence gone within one day. With the Flyers passing on Stamkos (thank goodness), the Flyers will be looking to make some signings. Exactly how much money they feel like they can spend is uncertain, because they may still dump salary.
Possible FA targets;
-Brad Richards - Hard to see the Flyers fitting him in, though it wouldn't be as difficult as signing Stamkos. A top quality center, he will command a long term deal in the vicinity of $6m/year. Someone like the Rangers may outbid the others for him, though the Flyers have popped up as an interested party.
-Erik Cole - Probably my top choice for the Flyers to sign. Physical winger who can score his share of goals, though he has had injury problems in the past. It won't break the bank to sign him either.
-Simon Gagne - Familiar face would have to take a steep paycut from his expiring $5m/year deal the Flyers signed him to. In my opinion his days as a go-to goal scorer are gone because a level of aggression is gone from his game, and you can't score consistently without driving the net and going to scoring areas. Still could be a quality 2-way forward IF he can avoid injuries.
-Michael Ryder - His name has come up as a possible target of the Flyers. He can score some goals in the NHL, but "Easy Ryder" does find his way into coaches' doghouses at times.
-Michael Handzus - Another familiar face, who had some good seasons with the Flyers a few years ago. Big and slow, but maybe a good option as 3rd-line center? Would need to agree to a paycut too.
-Jamie Langenbrunner - A valuable 2-way winger for some time, his career is on the decline but may interest teams as a cheap veteran.
-John Madden - On the verge of retirement, had several good seasons a PK and faceoff specialist. Might not be looking for much money.
-Jaromir Jagr - Former MVP wants to come back to the NHL at 39 after three seasons in Russia. Could be a bargain as you'd think he's still good for 50 points or more with his skills, regardless of age.
-Ville Leino - He's a UFA now. I think the Flyers would like him back, but only at less than $3m/year. Someone else will probably give him more than that.
Someone always overpays on UFA day, and it may be even worse this year with several teams needed to spend to reach the cap floor. If a real bidding war erupts for a particular player, the Flyers will not be able to keep pace, but they have a little bit of money to spend and hopefully can find some value.
The NHL free agent frenzy is pretty wild, with most of the big names signing within a few hours, and just about everyone of consequence gone within one day. With the Flyers passing on Stamkos (thank goodness), the Flyers will be looking to make some signings. Exactly how much money they feel like they can spend is uncertain, because they may still dump salary.
Possible FA targets;
-Brad Richards - Hard to see the Flyers fitting him in, though it wouldn't be as difficult as signing Stamkos. A top quality center, he will command a long term deal in the vicinity of $6m/year. Someone like the Rangers may outbid the others for him, though the Flyers have popped up as an interested party.
-Erik Cole - Probably my top choice for the Flyers to sign. Physical winger who can score his share of goals, though he has had injury problems in the past. It won't break the bank to sign him either.
-Simon Gagne - Familiar face would have to take a steep paycut from his expiring $5m/year deal the Flyers signed him to. In my opinion his days as a go-to goal scorer are gone because a level of aggression is gone from his game, and you can't score consistently without driving the net and going to scoring areas. Still could be a quality 2-way forward IF he can avoid injuries.
-Michael Ryder - His name has come up as a possible target of the Flyers. He can score some goals in the NHL, but "Easy Ryder" does find his way into coaches' doghouses at times.
-Michael Handzus - Another familiar face, who had some good seasons with the Flyers a few years ago. Big and slow, but maybe a good option as 3rd-line center? Would need to agree to a paycut too.
-Jamie Langenbrunner - A valuable 2-way winger for some time, his career is on the decline but may interest teams as a cheap veteran.
-John Madden - On the verge of retirement, had several good seasons a PK and faceoff specialist. Might not be looking for much money.
-Jaromir Jagr - Former MVP wants to come back to the NHL at 39 after three seasons in Russia. Could be a bargain as you'd think he's still good for 50 points or more with his skills, regardless of age.
-Ville Leino - He's a UFA now. I think the Flyers would like him back, but only at less than $3m/year. Someone else will probably give him more than that.
Someone always overpays on UFA day, and it may be even worse this year with several teams needed to spend to reach the cap floor. If a real bidding war erupts for a particular player, the Flyers will not be able to keep pace, but they have a little bit of money to spend and hopefully can find some value.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Don't do it
The consensus in the Philly media yesterday is that the Flyers have prepared a 12 year, $115 million offer to Stamkos as a RFA, and are torn about whether to formally submit it on Friday.
I really really hope the Flyers don't.
Stamkos is probably the best goalscorer in the league. He should be scoring 40+/year for many years to come, but that contract is huge. A $9.5+ cap hit every year for a dozen years? That is a heavy burden no matter how good the player.
Regardless of evaluating the contract in absolute terms, it makes less sense for the Flyers at this point. A lot can and will change, but if the Flyers don't go after Stamkos their lineup may look something like this;
JVR-Giroux-Cole
Voracek-Briere-Simmonds
Hartnell-Schenn-Versteeg
Holmstrem-Betts-Nodl
Shelley
Pronger-Carle
Timonen-Coburn
Meszaros-Gustafsson
Bartulis
Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky
With estimated values for Cole ($2.5), Voracek ($2.5) and Simmonds ($1.75), the lineup above would likely be around $63.1 million, leaving a little more than $1m in cap space.
To bring in Stamkos at near $10m the Flyers would have to cut A LOT, meaning firesale prices and/or simply cutting some combination of Versteeg, Hartnell, Shelley, Bobrovsky, Carle, and putting Schenn in the AHL next year. A Stamkos lineup might look something like this;
JVR-Stamkos-Voracek
Briere-Giroux-Simmonds
Nodl-????-????
Holmstrem-Betts-Sestito
I really really hope the Flyers don't.
Stamkos is probably the best goalscorer in the league. He should be scoring 40+/year for many years to come, but that contract is huge. A $9.5+ cap hit every year for a dozen years? That is a heavy burden no matter how good the player.
Regardless of evaluating the contract in absolute terms, it makes less sense for the Flyers at this point. A lot can and will change, but if the Flyers don't go after Stamkos their lineup may look something like this;
JVR-Giroux-Cole
Voracek-Briere-Simmonds
Hartnell-Schenn-Versteeg
Holmstrem-Betts-Nodl
Shelley
Pronger-Carle
Timonen-Coburn
Meszaros-Gustafsson
Bartulis
Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky
With estimated values for Cole ($2.5), Voracek ($2.5) and Simmonds ($1.75), the lineup above would likely be around $63.1 million, leaving a little more than $1m in cap space.
To bring in Stamkos at near $10m the Flyers would have to cut A LOT, meaning firesale prices and/or simply cutting some combination of Versteeg, Hartnell, Shelley, Bobrovsky, Carle, and putting Schenn in the AHL next year. A Stamkos lineup might look something like this;
JVR-Stamkos-Voracek
Briere-Giroux-Simmonds
Nodl-????-????
Holmstrem-Betts-Sestito
Pronger-Carle
Timonen-Coburn
Meszaros-Gustafsson
Bartulis
Bryzgalov
Boucher
Again using some estimates, the lineup above would cost ~$58.3 million against the cap. That leaves ~$5m to sign 2 or 3 forwards.
Personally, I think the Stamkos lineup is probably worse than the non-Stamkos lineup due to worse 3rd and 4th lines. Even if you consider the Stamkos lineup better, just to achieve that hypothetical you are; 1) dumping several forward contracts, which is always easier for fans to talk about than to actually accomplish, 2) giving up some package of picks/prospects to have the rights to Stamkos (4 first round picks unless the Flyers work out a deal with Tampa), and 3) hand-tying your cap space for the next several seasons. A fourth factor is that TB has up to 7 days to match the offer, so if the Flyers submit an offer sheet they are basically frozen out of the free agency signing period to wait on Stamkos who may or may not come.
I feel pretty strongly that to invite all these negative consequences is only acceptable if you're making your team much better. I don't think that's the case here. The Flyers can make room for Stamkos if they are willing to simply dump big contracts, but taken as a whole I don't like that plan one bit.
Friday, June 24, 2011
The Day After
Just a few thoughts now that the initial shock has worn off.
-Trading both Richards and Carter seems to lend credence to the idea that there were locker room issues with the young players on this team. Going back even further, every last piece of the "Old City Crew" has been shipped out; Upshall, then Lupul, now Richards and Carter. Seems a long time ago Stevens was coaching that big group of young forwards.
-I have to assume Pronger will be named the captain, as he kind of assumed the role of de facto captain last year anyway.
-As much as I like the deal, Simmonds, Voracek and Schenn will not be able to match the outgoing production of Richards and Carter this year. They are still young and developing, and are where Richards and Carter were a few years ago. Can they develop quick enough to win before Timonen and Pronger get too old?
-I really don't think I'll miss Carter too much, but the Richards trade does make me a little nervous. Richards looked out of shape to me down the stretch this year, but he can still do a little bit of everything and never quits. All is well if Schenn develops as most expect he will, and he's not a dissimilar player to Richards. However if Schenn fizzles by any significant amount, the Flyers will have traded their captain in his prime and not have too much to show for it.
-Apparently the Flyers almost sent Richards to the Leafs for Kulemin and Kadri, but the Leafs couldn't make up their mind. Also the Flyers apparently asked for Ryan Johansen, another center (and #2 on hockeysfuture.com top prospects behing Schenn) from Columbus. Maybe if Columbus had given in on Johansen the Flyers wouldn't have traded for Schenn? Who knows, who cares.
-There are some ridiculous rumors floating around about the Flyers chasing Brad Richards or Steven Stamkos. I can't imagine it. The Flyers opened up some cap space, but not that much cap space. Future acquisitions should be to round out the chemistry of the forwards at reasonable prices, not expensive high-end players. Cole, Gagne...etc.
-I'd also try and get Leino back because of his chemistry with Briere. People forget how much this team relied on that line up through January, because quite frankly Richards, Carter, and Pronger were having pretty sleepy seasons.
-The team is placing the offense into Claude Giroux's hands. He is the new franchise center, a role he seemingly was eager to accept this season anyway. With any luck, Schenn will be there supporting him sooner rather than later.
-The only thing the Flyers didn't address yesterday was young defensemen. Presumably the Flyers will take a defensemen with the #8 pick, though personally I would even look for a deal to trade Versteeg+#8 pick for a top notch defensive prospect who is close to NHL ready.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE
Huge huge huge day for the Flyers. Actually let's make that 4 huges.
Carter? Traded. Richards? Traded. Bryzgalov? Signed.
My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all. There was always a decent chance Carter would be traded, and Richards was a dark horse trade candidate, but both of them traded? Shocking.
The bottom line;
Out;
-Richards ($5.75 cap hit)
-Carter ($5.27 cap hit)
In;
-Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.6m cap hit)
-Brayden Schenn ($3.11 cap hit)
-Wayne Simmonds (RFA, $2 cap hit?)
-Jakub Voracek (RFA, $2.5 cap hit?)
-Picks: Columbus's 1st (8th overall), LA's 2nd, Columbus's 3rd
These are blockbuster moves. Richards and Carter were supposed to be the face of the franchise and each are signed to mega-long term deals. Schenn was ranked the best prospect in hockey by hockeysfuture.com, and Voracek was another very high pick who may be ready to take off in the NHL. Simmonds is a promising physical winger, and that collection of picks the Flyers added is nothing to scoff at. Note that the Carter to Columbus deal is basically exactly as speculated a few days ago, with which I was pretty satisfied.
Obvious questions yet to be answered are the contracts for Simmonds and Voracek, and if Versteeg is yet to be traded. I'd still say there's a fair chance Versteeg goes at the draft, but they no longer have to deal him. Here's the Flyers lineup as of right now (pay no attention to the lines);
Voracek-Briere-Hartnell
Simmonds-Giroux-JVR
Versteeg-Schenn-???
Powe-Betts-Nodl
Shelley
Pronger-Carle
Coburn-Timonen
Meszaros-Gustaffson
Bartulis
Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky
The lineup above costs ~$56.5 against the cap, and does not include values for Voracek or Simmonds. Also, if you didn't notice, Leino is not in this lineup, but Versteeg is. That leaves $7.8m for 3 wingers.
It will be difficult to judge it all until the dust settles, but suffice to say I am excited. Big upgrade in goal? Check? Clear cap space? Check. Add energy and size on the wings? Check. Add draft picks? Check. It remains to be seen what lies ahead for Richards and Carter, but based on their performance last year, this overhaul is fantastic. Of course they could just as easily have much better years in the future, so it's a risk.
So who are these guys the Flyers got?
-Bryzgalov. I said last month he was the best goalie out there, but the Flyers likely couldn't fit him on the roster without trading Richards or Carter. Turns out they were willing deal them both! Allow me also to pat myself on the back for pretty much nailing his contract value. Bryzgalov should be good, people. There are no guarantees, but he's one of only two goalies in the league to finish top 10 in Vezina voting the past two years (Luongo being the other). Even more impressive, he was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year, and that was in what most consider to be an "off" year for him. I am very hopeful.
-Schenn. This guy is a very hot prospect. The #1 prospect according to some, as mentioned above. In January in the World Junior championships, he set the tournament record for points, was named the top forward and won the tournament MVP. I can't say what to expect from him next year in the NHL as a 20 year old, but he projects to be an allstar NHL center for years to come.
-Simmonds. He is still developing as a NHL player, but he's young (23 at season's start) and the Flyers will look for him to be around 20 goals/45 points. From what I have seen, he's a physical player and his hits are heavy.
-Voracek. The #7 pick in the 2007 draft, another winger with size still finding his role in the NHL (22). No doubt though, he has high end potential. His numbers at this point of his career compare favorably to Carter at the same point, and the Flyers will hope for 20+ goals and approaching 60 points.
Overall, I am excited. The Flyers successfully addressed their biggest needs. They added youthful, sizable physical wingers, made a huge upgrade in goal, got good draft picks, and added the best center prospect in hockey. The price they paid was steep, but I think most Flyers fans were ready to say goodbye to Carter and Richards for better or for worse. Exciting times indeed. It almost feels like one of those trade frenzies you only pull off in video games.
Carter? Traded. Richards? Traded. Bryzgalov? Signed.
My head is still spinning trying to make sense of it all. There was always a decent chance Carter would be traded, and Richards was a dark horse trade candidate, but both of them traded? Shocking.
The bottom line;
Out;
-Richards ($5.75 cap hit)
-Carter ($5.27 cap hit)
In;
-Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.6m cap hit)
-Brayden Schenn ($3.11 cap hit)
-Wayne Simmonds (RFA, $2 cap hit?)
-Jakub Voracek (RFA, $2.5 cap hit?)
-Picks: Columbus's 1st (8th overall), LA's 2nd, Columbus's 3rd
These are blockbuster moves. Richards and Carter were supposed to be the face of the franchise and each are signed to mega-long term deals. Schenn was ranked the best prospect in hockey by hockeysfuture.com, and Voracek was another very high pick who may be ready to take off in the NHL. Simmonds is a promising physical winger, and that collection of picks the Flyers added is nothing to scoff at. Note that the Carter to Columbus deal is basically exactly as speculated a few days ago, with which I was pretty satisfied.
Obvious questions yet to be answered are the contracts for Simmonds and Voracek, and if Versteeg is yet to be traded. I'd still say there's a fair chance Versteeg goes at the draft, but they no longer have to deal him. Here's the Flyers lineup as of right now (pay no attention to the lines);
Voracek-Briere-Hartnell
Simmonds-Giroux-JVR
Versteeg-Schenn-???
Powe-Betts-Nodl
Shelley
Pronger-Carle
Coburn-Timonen
Meszaros-Gustaffson
Bartulis
Bryzgalov
Bobrovsky
The lineup above costs ~$56.5 against the cap, and does not include values for Voracek or Simmonds. Also, if you didn't notice, Leino is not in this lineup, but Versteeg is. That leaves $7.8m for 3 wingers.
It will be difficult to judge it all until the dust settles, but suffice to say I am excited. Big upgrade in goal? Check? Clear cap space? Check. Add energy and size on the wings? Check. Add draft picks? Check. It remains to be seen what lies ahead for Richards and Carter, but based on their performance last year, this overhaul is fantastic. Of course they could just as easily have much better years in the future, so it's a risk.
So who are these guys the Flyers got?
-Bryzgalov. I said last month he was the best goalie out there, but the Flyers likely couldn't fit him on the roster without trading Richards or Carter. Turns out they were willing deal them both! Allow me also to pat myself on the back for pretty much nailing his contract value. Bryzgalov should be good, people. There are no guarantees, but he's one of only two goalies in the league to finish top 10 in Vezina voting the past two years (Luongo being the other). Even more impressive, he was a 3 star selection in 44% of his starts last year, and that was in what most consider to be an "off" year for him. I am very hopeful.
-Schenn. This guy is a very hot prospect. The #1 prospect according to some, as mentioned above. In January in the World Junior championships, he set the tournament record for points, was named the top forward and won the tournament MVP. I can't say what to expect from him next year in the NHL as a 20 year old, but he projects to be an allstar NHL center for years to come.
-Simmonds. He is still developing as a NHL player, but he's young (23 at season's start) and the Flyers will look for him to be around 20 goals/45 points. From what I have seen, he's a physical player and his hits are heavy.
-Voracek. The #7 pick in the 2007 draft, another winger with size still finding his role in the NHL (22). No doubt though, he has high end potential. His numbers at this point of his career compare favorably to Carter at the same point, and the Flyers will hope for 20+ goals and approaching 60 points.
Overall, I am excited. The Flyers successfully addressed their biggest needs. They added youthful, sizable physical wingers, made a huge upgrade in goal, got good draft picks, and added the best center prospect in hockey. The price they paid was steep, but I think most Flyers fans were ready to say goodbye to Carter and Richards for better or for worse. Exciting times indeed. It almost feels like one of those trade frenzies you only pull off in video games.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Signing Bryzgalov
There is no progress to report on the Flyers signing Bryzgalov, and it will be no trivial task. That said, giving the way the season ended and the trade for Bryzgalov's rights, I have to think the Flyers are going to do what it takes to get this done. Substantive talks should take place this week, so we'll have to check on things on Friday.
So what will he sign for? The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down. I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m. Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little. Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.
Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space? I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away. That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen. Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
-First thing, Carter could go. I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
-Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky. It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m. Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option. I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
-Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit. The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him. Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
-Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter. He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
-Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses. For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust. That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.
So what should the Flyers be looking for in return? Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.
It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
-One possible trade partner is Florida. Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him. They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year. Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
-There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter. I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
-Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
-Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.
The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky. What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.
So what will he sign for? The more I think about it, I could see the Flyers going longer term to get the cap hit down. I previously said I though he would sign for $6-6.5m. Now I think that for every year the Flyers add beyond 4 years to the deal, the yearly cap hit will come down a little. Maybe 6-7 years for between $5-5.7m is coming.
Assuming a deal gets done, the fun question is what will the Flyers do to create cap space? I'm going to assume the Flyers sign Bryz for $5.7, give minimal raises to Powe and Nodl, and let Leino walk away. That puts the Flyers payroll at $63 million with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen. Obviously things have to go, and these are the options;
-First thing, Carter could go. I've previously addressed this, and I'd be very open to it because I think that represents the Flyers trading from a position of strength to get a large return and clear $5.27m.
-Second, you've got to think very hard about trading Bobrovsky. It doesn't make sense for the Flyers to carry the second-most expensive backup in the league, at a cap hit at $1.75m. Also, by merit of playing 60 games this season, Bobrovsky must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the AHL, so that's no longer an option. I have no problem with Bobrovsky learning the NHL game as a backup for a season or two, but that doesn't work if Bryzgalov is signed to 5+ years.
-Third, Versteeg has not been worth his ~$3m cap hit. The only drawback to trading Versteeg is that he doesn't command much trade value, and the Flyers just gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick to get him. Oh well, that's not a reason to keep him though.
-Fourth, some sources say the Flyers would rather trade Richards than Carter. He would give about the same cap relief as trading Carter, though personally, I would rather trade Carter for many reasons.
-Fifth, I am open to trading Carle, and I have previously evaluated his strengths and weaknesses. For all his shortcomings however, he eats up a lot of 5-on-5 minutes, and the health of Pronger and Timonen is less than robust. That should give the Flyers some pause before trading away a proven NHL defensemen.
So what should the Flyers be looking for in return? Generally they should want high draft picks, a top defensive prospect, and/or a rugged winger.
It would be impossible to predict a particular deal, however some possibilities are emerging.
-One possible trade partner is Florida. Tallon is the new GM there, and he previously had Versteeg in Chicago, and may be interested in acquiring him. They are also well under the cap-floor, so they have to add salary, and have no starting goalie under contract for next year. Lastly, they have many pieces the Flyers may be interested in; Markstrom is a top goalie prospect, Gudbranson is a top defensive prospect who should be NHL-ready sooner rather than later, and they also have #3 pick.
-There have already been rumors of the Blue Jackets trading the #8 pick and other pieces (Voracek?) for Carter. I think the spine of that deal isn't too bad, with the Flyers getting a very high pick and a young physical winger.
-Edmonton has the #1 pick, and is looking for a high-end center.
-Colorado picks at #2 and #11, and their situation in net is unsettled.
The easiest way for the Flyers to open up some cap room is to trade Versteeg for little value, or see who may want Bobrovsky. What actually shakes out though, is anyone's guess.
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